2/24/07 FCST: OH/KY/TN/IA/KS/MO/TX/LA/OK/IL/AR

[Bill Tabor]

With the high likelyhood of heavy precip in the a.m. I'm not sure you'll ever see what you "want" to see on the model. Enough moisture should be in place for the cold core event, and I doubt the heavy precip will kill it off. And if it's not as bad as it thinks with precip, I can't help but imagine more than enough moisture and instability will be in place for this(it's nice it does't take much lol). This isn't some new signal on this run.

I suppose what I said was a bit misleading. I was looking primarily at the 60's dews and notice how they keep showing further south with each run. In this case remaining south of the Red. That map also shows the 50's a bit easier to see than Ucar. I guess what I was saying 'it's starting to look pathetic' was in the overall severe threat - not just the cold core. As the 60's start retracting south then that limits overall severe. Some of that can be made up by a really cold mid hPa, and a fast moving system but not all IMO.

50's should be enough for cold core. Perhaps even 45 to 50 - but reviewing Davies' paper as I recall that was pushing it a bit. One of the other keys was unmixed low level moisture until the mid level system hit and released all the energy quickly.

The other thing I see though, is the current position of that sfc low in KS 12z and warping way ne very quickly reduces the chaseable real estate very quickly. I still think there will likely be some cold core tornadoes. I also think since there are always chasers spread out 1 or a few will get them if they are setup in front of the sfc low as it approaches.

However I didn't really want to mess with KS this early on with cold core - although I should consider it soon, as it is kind of a different type of chase with mini-sups and I should experience it. For me the Saturday morn thing in north Tx doesn't look likely per 0z run as it is too far east at 12z already. Friday is still a possibility but likely a night chase in west Tx or western Ok.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Yeah maybe its chaser withdrawls, Was a bold statement, but.....wind profiles are extreame to say the least. ANY moisture will really get things kicked up sat/sat night over SEMO, W. Ky, especially West Tennessee. Southern Illinois as well. But as to answer, Im not a forecaster, im a chaser/spotter suffering a bit of withdrawls, Thats the fun of anticipation. but if an EF5 occurs in KPAH or KMEM area, ya heard it here first lol. Now funning aside, It could be a very dangerous setup with touching 50-55 dews with these wind fields (Hvent seen this impressive for some time) Hope Im wrong, but appearing to be ominous to me.
Kevin

 

[David Wolfson]

A kibbitz from the sunny warm climes. For those expecting all that Theta-E advection into KS and MO, is your snowcover going to be all melted and ground unfrozen by tomorrow evening? According to the NCAR page http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowAFus.gif as of yesterday there was still a whole bunch of cover.

Until it's all melted, I think it will put a major hurt on your surface-based CAPE. Now the next system, if the GFS has been hinting may develop, should be most interesting IMHO, FWIW.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Snow is long gone from E.Kansas...aside from a few parking lot snow piles or shady areas. This should have zero impact on this storm in these parts.

 

[Justin Walker]

Yeah, looking at a satellite loop and only snow in extreme western KS. Maybe the GFS uses a analysis like this and has problems dealing with instability bc supposed snow cover.

 

[scott r currens]

A kibbitz from the sunny warm climes. For those expecting all that Theta-E advection into KS and MO, is your snowcover going to be all melted and ground unfrozen by tomorrow evening? According to the NCAR page http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowAFus.gif as of yesterday there was still a whole bunch of cover.

Until it's all melted, I think it will put a major hurt on your surface-based CAPE. Now the next system, if the GFS has been hinting may develop, should be most interesting IMHO, FWIW.

It should not be a factor, the current snow cover is limited to the western/northwestern 1/5 of Kansas.

 

[Grady Joslin]

Eh I'm still new to this board, but I've been lurking for a long time. And been watching this system for a while, I don't really have high hopes where I am at. (I live in the Southern Indiana area near Louisville), but if something appears, I am making a fast run to Bullet County, Kentucky. I may go further south if there is something spotted. But like many said this is only the first storm. So I'll watch from the internet and Weather Channel if I have to. But, all I am going to do for now is sit and wait.

Anyone think there may be a chance of something if I head closer to Southern Kentucky? Say near Bowling Green or Lexington? As I see it, I think this one I am just going to have to sit out.

 

[joelawton]

Mid-MO is clear of all snow cover, we have been for a few days now. That snow cover map is really old! The ground is saturated tho, so a heavy rain will become a flash-flood hazard.

It's hard to say but it looks like there might be an I-44 track thru MO, at least I'm hoping because that would be putting it in my backyard. While I'm not very advanced at forecasting, watching the models do show the movement in this direction. Now if I can just get off of work in time!

 

[Chris Allington]

Even up here in the Omaha and Lincoln, NE areas there is nothing left besides where the snow was pushed into piles. Its been in the mid-fifties and winter storm/ blizzard watches cover some of the same areas as the slight risk area for tomorrow evening. I will be interested to see how much moisture return we get this far north... that has been one of the more major inconcsistencies with model runs so far. Also interested to see how this changes with the system coming ashore today.

 

[Joe Stuart]

Although I've been chasing for several years and actually photographed my first Tornado last year(thanks in large part to these forums)I'm still relitivly new at this forecasting thing But here's what I think.

We need dewpoints 50+. Dewpoints in the 40s don't really seem to get things going enough for brief tornado spin-ups. But once we cross the threshold of 50 degree dewpoints then the potential in past cases goes up tremendously. We also need to get at least some sunshine into this picture. There should be storms firing in central KS that will be moving NNE and NE early that may cause for lots of garbage cloudcover on SAT.If we reach temps. into the 50s or 60s and if we can get those dewpoints into the 50s we should be in business with some Low-topped HP supercells. There should be 2 areas that have the highest potential of Tornado warned storms. One will be east of the surface low, the other would be down across SW MO and SE KS and other areas south and east of there. It looks to me that the triple point will be SW of Wichita around noon on saturday.

With all that being said I think I will target the Wichita area early, hope for a dry slot and adjust my position as needed. We should know alot more as this event gets closer.

This is my first attempt at making a public forecast in a forum, Any criticism, good or bad is welcome.

 

[Justin Bailey]

Anyone think there may be a chance of something if I head closer to Southern Kentucky? Say near Bowling Green or Lexington? As I see it, I think this one I am just going to have to sit out.

I dont see Bowling Green getting anything but a weakening squall line in the overnight hrs of saturday night or early sunday morning. if your wanting to chase and have a decent shot at a tornado your best bet IMO would be to get on Western KY PKWY and head towards paducah. then jump over into the bootheel of MO, where there is good flat chase terrain and you might be able to intercept some fast moving cells during daylight hrs. before they congeal into one insane squall line. i would never think about chasing in central KY. the terrain is absolutely terrible. idk if your wanting to drive that far but it may be worth it. if i wasn't broke thats where i'd be heading.

 

[Grady Joslin]

I think I am going to sit this one out and watch it on the radar. I may go exploring just to get lay of the land. But Central Kentucky, and Indiana is about the only places I got. I don't usually have much money. So, it was worth a shot, but thankfully its only the beginning of the season. So I am sure I'll have another chance. Good luck to you all out west, catch one for me!

I dont see Bowling Green getting anything but a weakening squall line in the overnight hrs of saturday night or early sunday morning. if your wanting to chase and have a decent shot at a tornado your best bet IMO would be to get on Western KY PKWY and head towards paducah. then jump over into the bootheel of MO, where there is good flat chase terrain and you might be able to intercept some fast moving cells during daylight hrs. before they congeal into one insane squall line. i would never think about chasing in central KY. the terrain is absolutely terrible. idk if your wanting to drive that far but it may be worth it. if i wasn't broke thats where i'd be heading.

 

[Matthew Havin]

Wow! It's that time of year again....how time flies! Looks like everyone has already talked about if the instability will pan out, or if the system is too fast, too cloudy, or on the wrong side of a river, or state, or the Mason-Dixon line, not getting the extra sun and instability since Daylight Savings Time hasn't come yet, didn't pay it taxes. Gotta love ST!

My $0.02 =

A vigorous upper level trough and attendant low will move into the central Plains during the day on Saturday. A 110kt+ 500mb jet core along with a cold-core 990mb surface low should provide for a very interesting weather day, with blizzards (another post), high winds, and two distinct severe weather chasing areas. These storms will fly, so you may only get one chance to see anything decent.

Area 1: Cold-Core Kansas
Much of this has already been referenced..... with the idea of staying just to the east of the 990mb low starting midday and early afternoon in E KS near the warm front. A thin belt of 50+ Td advecting into SE KS from E OK toward the sfc low should be more than adequate with the dynamics of the system to provide for low-topped mini-supercells and a few brief tornadoes. Target area: around Emporia, KS

Area 2: Lower MS valley
Further south, some instability (1000 CAPE) and favorable wind shear profiles should allow for severe t-storms especially in N LA, S AR, and W MS... then moving across MS as a weakening squall line in the evening. 21Z NAM EHI of 2-3 supports the idea of a few tornadoes possible especially with isolated storm cells. Chasing area should be pretty good as long as you stay in the Delta Valley.... flat and not too many trees. Target: El Dorado, (SC) AR.

I leaned more on the NAM since the 00Z has slowed slightly from the 12Z, while the 18Z GFS still seems too fast altogether.

EDIT: Just looked at the 00Z GFS... and is slower now and more in agreement with NAM with low placement. It is much slower than the 18Z GFS run, and slightly slower than 12Z run.

 

[SteveCarter]

Well, it's descision time. According to NAM, GFS, SPC, and just about every other abbreviated source of info.....I'll be spending Friday around Tunica, MS... and then perhaps slide into Arkansas during the late morning. Dew points should be MORE than adequate, and that low-level shear!! Awesome. I'm afraid of the cloud cover somewhat, but with the intensity of this system, a lot can, and prob will happen that no one really expects, and that's what makes this one so interesting. I had thought of staying here (upstate of SC), and wait for Sunday, but other than a weakening squall line, I don't expect much here that day....so if anyone will be around Tunica - to SE of Little Rock Saturday, shoot me an e-mail!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I've been thinking about this in relation to 11/27/05. Even though we caught a rotating mini-supe that day, I remember that I misjudged the instability axis and wasn't far enough west when the storms initiated. Remembering how that storm worked in spinning those mini supercells on a northern path faster than easterly or northeasterly, I'm almost thinking that a person will want to try to get just east or northeast of the low by 50 mi. by say noon or 1:00 p.m. at the latest. I'm still trying to figure out just where this thing will be sitting by then. On the next update should have a better idea, but for the last 24 hours, the models have definitely been keeping the low further west. If the moisture ends up further east, then that is where a person would naturally want to be. But I'm starting to think that being along I-70 would be the ticket, closer to Junction City (or even H's earlier target of Salina). In my mind, the big thing is that it is more important not to be too far south than it is to be too far west. Earlier I was thinking in terms of being forced to play catch-up from the west as the whole system moves east. But I think if a person is in position early enough, it's actually more important to be well to the north to catch these as they swing up and around the system. Being forced to play catch up from the south would actually be the killer. Also, whether a person is using ThreatNet or any other mobile radar tomorrow, remember that these storms will look like little splotches ... not much more than a rainshower (and you can seldom make out a visible hook). I'm going to have to attend a funeral tomorrow unfortunately, and I'm doubting seriously that I can get positioned in time afterward. We'll see.