Hurricane Alex

NickSeyour

NickSeyour

EF1
Joined
Mar 24, 2010
Messages
60
Location
Somewhere in NE
7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26
Location: 17.0°N 85.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF
ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.


084714W5_NL_sm.gif
 
Yeah it looks pretty potent for a tropical storm. Lets see what the Hurricane Hunters find in a few hours. Looks like this could be a tx/mx border storm.
 
Good day all,

Alex should make its first landfall in Belize / southern Yucatan, Mexico as either a strong tropical storm, or borderline hurricane during the evening / night of June 26.

After that, it will spend about 18-24 hours over land, then re-emerge in the southwest Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche. It may re-organize and reach hurricane status before striking mainland Mexico on Tuesday / Wednesday (June 30 or so).

If the storm holds together across land for a while, the storm can be a strong cat-1 (or even 2) come early Wednesday as it strikes mainland Mexico and has been in a low shear / high SST environment.

From a chasing perspective, extreme southern Texas will be WELL NORTH of the landfall region - So a trip to Mexico will be on tap for any avid hurricane chaser (did you hear that: Mr Millar)?

After this final landfall, the storm should quickly weaken in Mexico's higher terrain and lack of Gulf heat energy.
 
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I'm considering going to Mexico to chase this-- if the cyclone can gain a little latitude so it has some time over the open S Gulf. However, if it stays way S-- so it scrapes the S coast of the Bay of Campeche on the way to a landfall near Veracruz-- then I don't think it will be so chaseworthy. So for me, it all depends on whether the center can gain a little latitude this evening and tomorrow.
 
The 10 pm CDT package indicates the cyclone is finally gaining a little latitude, and the new forecast track brings the center ashore a little N of Tampico between 72 and 96 hrs with winds of at least 70 kt. Definitely looking a little more interesting.
 
The GFS, GFDL and the Ensemble Members are now going back to show the storm turning to the right once it enters the GOM. A Texas landfall is not entierly out of the question and this is something that should be monitored as any longer time Alex stays out over the GOM is extra time that it can intensify. If this holds true I do belive a trip down to Texas is in order. Given the historic track of other storms that have formed where Alex has this early into the season I would not be entirely surprised by this storm making a move towards Texas as apposed to Mexico.
 
I feel the Non Global run has a better handle on this thing since inception. Might as well take Texas out of the equation for every few miles this thing tracks to the west. Low shear environment and lack of substantial troughing will likely landfall this storm into the Mexican coast. It is on a bee line for Veracruz, although stair stepping as it goes. Might end up between Veracruz and Tampico as the Sphagetti Model has verified. Latest IR and WV loop verifies this westward trek and has held together very well albeit the Yucatan sits very low geographically. This is one storm we don't want to magically shift north.
 
I'm planning on going after this one-- in Mexico. This part of Mexico looks to be tough chase turf, but this one looks too good to pass up.

But Texas is certainly not out of the question. The bottom line is that the models are all over the place with this. Ugh!
 
Based on the surprisingly low pressure of 991 MB and the finding of 35-39 knot SMFR winds NHC has upgraded Alex back up to TS status based on this administration message.

AL, 01, 2010062800, , BEST, 0, 192N, 911W, 35, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 20, 20, 60, 1004, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,

I've got frequent updates going on the facebook and twitter account with the latest on Alex. You can find both links on the twitter page. twitter.com/txstormchasers
 
The majority (and most of the more reliable models) show the track now into Texas. Intensity guidance shows a split between those that do not want to restrengthen and those that want to go for Category 2. Given the lower pressure, I think restrengthning is a possibility.
 
I have been considering an intercept in Mexico of Alex, but the longer I hold off deciding, the less likely it seems I'll be going. The track is a bit further south and progged to be not so strong at landfall.

I don't think it'll be worth the effort, especially for June. There is still LOTS of season left and I confident that there will be other, much more chaseable opportunities.

If it were consistently forecast to be stronger at landfall that'd be another story. Add to that the strong likelihood of a night time landfall = Probable no go for me on this one.

Heck, I just got back from 7 weeks in Tornado Alley,then an adventure race, a tornado close to home, plus 2 days of rioting here in Toronto. I need a rest.

George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
 
I'm chasing it in Mexico. I made the decision and I'm flying out of L.A. Tuesday afternoon.

I agree with all of George's points (above), and I think this chase has high bust potential, but screw it-- I'm doing it.
 
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Currently sitting in Edinberg, TX. Folks are filling sand bangs and beginning preparations. I expect a landfall just South of the border as a strong cat 1, possibly a cat 2.
 
Looking at the models and living in Fort Worth I wonder how much chance there is of the remains going over or to the west of DFW? Some of the models seem to still show that, while most do not. But I am no expert on which models are more accurate than others. We are getting some rain in DFW from a front coincidentally.
 
Good day all,

I scrutinized this one in detail and threw the "chase switch" to "off" on it because of several factors (not to discourage anyone - sorry Mr Morgerman).

1). Airline tickets to places like Austin, being a major holiday weekend coming up, were VERY expensive. I am not working right now (and probably won't be for a LONG time) and chasing funds have to be carefully spent on more "worthwhile" systems.

2). Mexican landfall. This means a risky border crossing into Mexico from Texas. Anyone without a passport should say forget it. Those with a passport - Be CAREFUL. Othwerwise, you'll get some wind / waves at that in S Texas.

3). Speaking of Texas, south Padre Island is a HORRIBLE chase area. Remember all those folks chasing hurricane Dolly? Roadblocks, no "extensive" chase reports on it (cuz no one was able to get "to it") - Yup!

4). Landfall will most likely be at night (as of now, it's 1 AM, right in the midst of darkness).

5). Storm will be a cat-1 (or minimal cat-2) at best.
 
My rebuttal:

1. The flight from L.A. wasn't that expensive.
2. I like chasing in Mexico.
3. I chased Dolly and found the S-TX region to be good chase turf.
4. Alex has sped up and a daytime landfall is looking more likely.
5. A good Cat 1 with a nice core can make me very happy!

:p

In all seriousness... I was on the fence about this one, and I think it has very high bust potential-- it can totally crap out. But I can talk myself into never chasing anything, so I decided to just do it.

If it sucks, I'll have a nice three days of relaxation in Tampico. :D
 
Good luck, Josh.

I was considering going down to this one. Not only to chase, but to help my parents get their home hurricane ready. It doesn't look like the Corpus Christi area will be impacted too bad, so I will likely stay home on this one.
 
Good day all,

The storm as of 5 PM EDT is STILL a strong tropical storm. Northerley shear being the culprit for it not being a hurricane just yet.

I see the pressure at 981 MB which should constitute a low-end cat-1 so we'll see what the 11 PM advisory says.

The track is back to the LEFT, so southern Texas looks to be OK. If you have a passport, and a knife / gun (to defend yourself), good luck.

Interesting Josh M got such a good deal out of LA. My flight would have been into Austin, so maybe that's the reason it was so costly (July 4th, probably).

Anyway, I hope you get what you are looking for. I do NOT like to see busts in anything. Sorry for my last "jinxing and hexing" post :-(

This is the very first storm of the season, kind of like the first tornado each year in early March gets the most attention. They'll be more, but good luck to all heading into Alex!!
 
The state where landfall will be made in Mexico just assassinated a candidate for Governor. This is one of the more violent areas in Mexico and not an area that is considered safe for Americans at this time. Some of the intel that I have seen would make me have a small task force to be in the area. Stay safe
 
According to raw Recon data we now have pressure at 974 mb and 64 knot winds. Alex is officially a hurrican per next update, has a lower pressure than all but two storms from last year, and is the first June hurricane since 1995 (Allison methinks).

Pretty impressive for the first storm of the season and a June one at that.
 
Best of luck Josh and stay safe!

I look forward to seeing any video you get and hoping you get a daylight landfall! (I've been cursed by about 5 night time landfalls in a row!) :rolleyes:
 
Hurricane Jimena was at 970mb last year and was one of the fastest drops in history. Went from 1005 to 970 or 35mph winds to 104mph winds in 24hrs. Alex has deepened from 1000mb to 961 albeit in about 36+ hrs. The confusing part to me is why the winds at 80mph?? Shouldn't we be dealing with a Cat 2 at 961mb?? Anyway, it is the lowest pressure for a Cat 1 I think I have seen in a while
 
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