Good day all,
With such a low pressure - Theoretically - Alex SHOULD be a strong cat-3 hurricane. But it's not, and here's why...
The storm moved over land, and if anyone remembers Ike in 2008, after it's Cuban landmass crossing, it had a pressure fall that would make a strong cat-4 but was barely a cat-2 and remained that way for a while despite crossing favorable warm waters.
The thing here is the core of the system is large and expansive (not as big as Ike, but big, nevertheless). This is why the pressure is so low, but the winds do not justify such low pressure. Like an ice skater with her arms out, Alex is just that, and all the energy is focused on multiple wind maximas around a large system, and not "concentrated" in one single eyewall. Ike was very similar to this.
Similar to Ike, Alex should continue deepening, and slowly recover from its treacherous "land crossing" and re-constitute it's core flow about a tighter path. I see a low end cat-2 during it's landfall Wednesday night / early Thursday morning.
Also keep in mind that when there is a sudden / significant pressure drop, the winds do NOT immediately reflect that because of inertia. It takes time for acceleration to occur with the increased pressure gradient (and the opposite is true when the storm winds down).
Finally, the environment around Alex is a bit low in pressure, accounting for a shallower gradient. But this does not affect the core flow very much, so the multiple wind maximas indicate the kinetic energy is spread out for now.
Note: With the large wind field associated with this storm (large gale / TS wind envelope around the hurricane forced winds) will create a storm surge / high waves equivalent to a cat-3 or more (10-15 feet surge or so) ... And these conditions will arrive LONG before the storm core does, possibly when the sun is still out (remember Ike)? - Keep that in mind when chasing in Mexico.
Above is an interesting comparison to the pressure "structure" of Hurricane Ike in 2008. The very large wind field and pressure "curve" shows a system with multiple speed maximas and "spread out" wind energy, despite the pressure being that of a storm that should be at least 2 categories stronger.
Above: A "typical" wind and pressure structure of a "normal" hurricane with the same pressure as Ike in the last example above. The tighter core flow makes for a wind speed more typical of such low pressure.
