Hurricane Alex

My rebuttal:

1. The flight from L.A. wasn't that expensive.
2. I like chasing in Mexico.
3. I chased Dolly and found the S-TX region to be good chase turf.
4. Alex has sped up and a daytime landfall is looking more likely.
5. A good Cat 1 with a nice core can make me very happy!


In all seriousness... I was on the fence about this one, and I think it has very high bust potential-- it can totally crap out. But I can talk myself into never chasing anything, so I decided to just do it.

If it sucks, I'll have a nice three days of relaxation in Tampico. :D
Good luck, Josh.

I was considering going down to this one. Not only to chase, but to help my parents get their home hurricane ready. It doesn't look like the Corpus Christi area will be impacted too bad, so I will likely stay home on this one.
Good day all,

The storm as of 5 PM EDT is STILL a strong tropical storm. Northerley shear being the culprit for it not being a hurricane just yet.

I see the pressure at 981 MB which should constitute a low-end cat-1 so we'll see what the 11 PM advisory says.

The track is back to the LEFT, so southern Texas looks to be OK. If you have a passport, and a knife / gun (to defend yourself), good luck.

Interesting Josh M got such a good deal out of LA. My flight would have been into Austin, so maybe that's the reason it was so costly (July 4th, probably).

Anyway, I hope you get what you are looking for. I do NOT like to see busts in anything. Sorry for my last "jinxing and hexing" post :-(

This is the very first storm of the season, kind of like the first tornado each year in early March gets the most attention. They'll be more, but good luck to all heading into Alex!!
The state where landfall will be made in Mexico just assassinated a candidate for Governor. This is one of the more violent areas in Mexico and not an area that is considered safe for Americans at this time. Some of the intel that I have seen would make me have a small task force to be in the area. Stay safe
According to raw Recon data we now have pressure at 974 mb and 64 knot winds. Alex is officially a hurrican per next update, has a lower pressure than all but two storms from last year, and is the first June hurricane since 1995 (Allison methinks).

Pretty impressive for the first storm of the season and a June one at that.
Best of luck Josh and stay safe!

I look forward to seeing any video you get and hoping you get a daylight landfall! (I've been cursed by about 5 night time landfalls in a row!) :rolleyes:
Hurricane Jimena was at 970mb last year and was one of the fastest drops in history. Went from 1005 to 970 or 35mph winds to 104mph winds in 24hrs. Alex has deepened from 1000mb to 961 albeit in about 36+ hrs. The confusing part to me is why the winds at 80mph?? Shouldn't we be dealing with a Cat 2 at 961mb?? Anyway, it is the lowest pressure for a Cat 1 I think I have seen in a while
Good day all,

With such a low pressure - Theoretically - Alex SHOULD be a strong cat-3 hurricane. But it's not, and here's why...

The storm moved over land, and if anyone remembers Ike in 2008, after it's Cuban landmass crossing, it had a pressure fall that would make a strong cat-4 but was barely a cat-2 and remained that way for a while despite crossing favorable warm waters.

The thing here is the core of the system is large and expansive (not as big as Ike, but big, nevertheless). This is why the pressure is so low, but the winds do not justify such low pressure. Like an ice skater with her arms out, Alex is just that, and all the energy is focused on multiple wind maximas around a large system, and not "concentrated" in one single eyewall. Ike was very similar to this.

Similar to Ike, Alex should continue deepening, and slowly recover from its treacherous "land crossing" and re-constitute it's core flow about a tighter path. I see a low end cat-2 during it's landfall Wednesday night / early Thursday morning.

Also keep in mind that when there is a sudden / significant pressure drop, the winds do NOT immediately reflect that because of inertia. It takes time for acceleration to occur with the increased pressure gradient (and the opposite is true when the storm winds down).

Finally, the environment around Alex is a bit low in pressure, accounting for a shallower gradient. But this does not affect the core flow very much, so the multiple wind maximas indicate the kinetic energy is spread out for now.

Note: With the large wind field associated with this storm (large gale / TS wind envelope around the hurricane forced winds) will create a storm surge / high waves equivalent to a cat-3 or more (10-15 feet surge or so) ... And these conditions will arrive LONG before the storm core does, possibly when the sun is still out (remember Ike)? - Keep that in mind when chasing in Mexico.


Above is an interesting comparison to the pressure "structure" of Hurricane Ike in 2008. The very large wind field and pressure "curve" shows a system with multiple speed maximas and "spread out" wind energy, despite the pressure being that of a storm that should be at least 2 categories stronger.


Above: A "typical" wind and pressure structure of a "normal" hurricane with the same pressure as Ike in the last example above. The tighter core flow makes for a wind speed more typical of such low pressure.
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Looks like Alex is becoming more organized. It's beginning to present an eye on visible satellite (IR eye is a bit less pronounced)


MODS: Perhaps the title of the thread should be Hurricane Alex?
Good day all,

Interesting as it appears a central "core" and eyewall / eye has developed around the system as per visible satellite and around that appears to be a "moat" region (less clouds) surrounded by another ring of weaker convection.

Still stinks that Josh M and other(s) chasing this have to deal with a night-time landfall ;-(
Good day all,

Clearly a double / concentric eyewall system.

As I mentioned earlier based on the visible satellite, a moat is clearly evident around the inner eyewall and inside the outer (weaker) eyewall on the radar presentation by Marko K as well.

Landfall should be at about the 8-10 PM time-frame, locally (CDT).