Humberto discussion

[Dan Robinson]

Another likely TC landfall for the US next week, with NHC issuing its first advisory on what will be Humberto. After the initial Florida landfall, model spread is huge at the moment, with many suggesting a path into the Gulf with a second landfall anywhere from Texas to Florida. The NHC has initially favored the easternmost guidance solutions. Intensity-wise, models generally agree on only a TS at best thanks to strong shear Gulf and Atlantic-wide.

From a chasing standpoint, this doesn't look even remotely like a candidate thanks to unrelenting shear in just about any potential path the storm could go. The biggest story from this storm may be its passage over areas impacted by Dorian, albeit only as either a TD or weak TS thankfully.

 

[James K]

A previous cone I saw (yesterday? early this morning? .. can't remember) had it crossing Florida. Now I see they show it staying on the east side.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Models have settled into agreement on Humberto being a fish storm as a minimal hurricane next week. Barring a major model flip, this puts to an end the already slim possibility of this being a chaseable event. On to the next one....

 

[Dan Robinson]

Bermuda appears to have been impacted by the southern eyewall of now Cat 3 Humberto. The radar data stopped shortly after this loop:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1174431671900229632