• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

HRRR Performance During Active Phase of 2025-04-01 OK Event

gdlewen

gdlewen

EF4
Joined
May 5, 2019
Messages
360
Location
Owasso, OK
As part of a chase post-mortem, I was looking at the HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (using CoD graphic output). I understand that current observations, including radar data, are used to initialize models, and it is my further understanding that the Zero-Hour Forecast (F00) reflects the analysis of the current conditions.

20250401_23Z Composite Reflectivity.jpg1743621333861.png
Composite Reflectivity for 4/1/2025 23Z based on KFDR, KINX, KTLX, KVNX data usage Py-Art. Little effort to exclude clutter beyond masking below 5dBz. (Probably should have added in KDDC and KICT.)​
HRRR 23Z Run F00 Analysis Reflectivity​

What I don't understand is how the HRRR took the 23Z initialization, and turned it into this at 00Z (on 4/2):

20250402_00Z Composite Reflectivity.jpg
1743621693220.png​
Composite Reflectivity for 4/2/2025 00Z based on KFDR, KINX, KTLX, KVNX data.
HRRR 23Z Run F01 Predicted Reflectivity​
The "primary cell" and its neighbor is more or less well-predicted, but the convection in SW Oklahoma has no representation in the F01 forecast. Plus there is an explosion of cells W and S of the primary cell, which disappear in the next forecast:

20250402_01Z Composite Reflectivity.jpg1743622151557.png
Composite Reflectivity for 4/2/2025 01Z based on KFDR, KINX, KTLX, KVNX data.
HRRR 23Z Run F02 Predicted Reflectivity​

The F02 forecast still hasn't developed convection in SW OK, which is well ongoing by 01Z. Plus there is a new strong cell W of Tonkawa that really has nothing to do with the actual primary cell, which is kinda-maybe correctly modeled across the OK border in KS.

I'm not saying we should take the location of modeled cells literally (and I don't), but this does make me wonder what in the HRRR causes this behavior. It's a pretty big hour-to-hour divergence that it seems would be even more noticeable if the model wasn't reinitialized every hour. Just posing this as a general question....
 
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