Gabe Garfield
EF5
To be honest with you, I have generally overestimated (at least mentally, if not verbally) the intensity of a tornado based on my observation.
One such instance that immediately comes to mind is the first Quinter tornado of 23 May. The tornado was large (~1/4 mile in diameter) and appeared to have a very vigorous debris fan. I immediately suspected that it was at least a strong tornado, if not violent. Well, I talked with Josh Wurman about it, and he was surprised that I thought that it was violent; he could only find winds in the DOW data justifying a rating of EF2, at most. Sure enough, when I went on the damage survey a few days later, I was able to only find evidence of EF2 damage.
Another example is the Courtland/Belleville, KS after-dark wedge of 29 May of this year. That tornado grew to almost 3/4 of a mile in diameter. To me, it looked a whole lot like Greensburg. Yet, on the damage survey the next day, we were only able to find evidence of low-end EF3 damage. It wasn't like there wasn't anything to hit -- several farm houses were destroyed. Trees and plant life seemed to be relatively unscathed as well.
After what I've seen this year, I've become much more reticent to even "ballpark" the intensity of a tornado.
One such instance that immediately comes to mind is the first Quinter tornado of 23 May. The tornado was large (~1/4 mile in diameter) and appeared to have a very vigorous debris fan. I immediately suspected that it was at least a strong tornado, if not violent. Well, I talked with Josh Wurman about it, and he was surprised that I thought that it was violent; he could only find winds in the DOW data justifying a rating of EF2, at most. Sure enough, when I went on the damage survey a few days later, I was able to only find evidence of EF2 damage.
Another example is the Courtland/Belleville, KS after-dark wedge of 29 May of this year. That tornado grew to almost 3/4 of a mile in diameter. To me, it looked a whole lot like Greensburg. Yet, on the damage survey the next day, we were only able to find evidence of low-end EF3 damage. It wasn't like there wasn't anything to hit -- several farm houses were destroyed. Trees and plant life seemed to be relatively unscathed as well.
After what I've seen this year, I've become much more reticent to even "ballpark" the intensity of a tornado.