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Guess the event

Something to pass the time...only way I had to post the data was to put it directly on here, so sorry for the length.


CONVECTIVE OURLOOK..REF AFOS NMCGPH940

VALID 151500 - 16120OZ

WW NR 747 VALID TIL 18Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PTNS OF ERN AR..ERN
LA..MS..AL.. TN..KY..GA..NWRN FL. AREA IS TO RT OF LN FM 50 S
GPT BTR ESF ELD JBR PAH SDF LEX LOZ TYS AHN AGS VLD 20 S
TLH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR ELSW TO RT OF LN
FM GLS SH HOT SLO DNV JXN MTC YNG INT CHS SSI CTY.

GEN TSTM ACTVTY TO RT OF LN FM MFE ALI TYS STI MKG APN.

VIGOROUS UPR LVL TROF DIGGING SEWD INTO CNTRL U.S. IN
RESPONSE TO VRY STG JET MAX MOVG SEWD OVR MT/WY.
AMS RAS BECOME VRY UNSTBL FM LA ACRS MS INTO TN/KY
WITH SFC BASED LI OF MINUS 7 TO MINUS 9. LATEST LFM
TENDS TO SHOW NEG TILT TO TROF ACRS GULF CST STATES
DURG PD AS STG BAND OF PVA MOVES EWD ACRS MS/AL/GA.
PRONOUNCED MID LVL DRYING PROGD TO MOVE EWD ACRS
LA/MS/AL TO N OF STG SUBTROP JET ORIENTED FM C TX
EWD TO SRN FL. SVR TSTMS EXPCD TO EXPLODE DURG AFTN
AHD STG CDFNT FM ERN VMS AR/LA INTO TN/KY AND MOVE
EWD ACRS VRY UNSTBL AMS. LOW LVL JET EXPCD TO CONT
STG AHD CDFNT FM LA/MS INTO KY PROVIDING FVRBL MSTR
CNVRGNC PAT. INCRSG UP LVL DVRGNC PAT OVR HIGH RISK
AREA GIVES THREAT OF DMGG TORNADOES. ISOLD SVR
TSTMS ALSO PSBL WITH SFC LOW MOVG NEWD ACRS IND/SERN
MI/OH WHERE AMS HAS LI OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY UNDER AFOS HEADER MKCPWOMKC.

..WILSON..

 
Public Severe Weather Outlook:


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO

KANSAS CM MISSOURI
0930 AM CST

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI IS FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THE STATES WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
BRUNT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDE
PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...GEORGIA...
AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPLOSIVE
CONFRONTATION OF AIR MASSES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN
ARKANSAS...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EASTERN LOUISIANA.
LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDSTORMS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SA RULES...AND LISTEN TO RADIO..TV..OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..LARRY WILSON..

I've never done one of these before, so you all will have to help me out. Let me know what data you need. If I can get to it this morning, I will post charts and other data on my website.
 
Well, just going by the outlooks, they reference AFOS and the NSSFC, so it is older than the late 90's.

I'm going to take a stab at guessing Palm Sunday Outbreak II, March 27, 1994.
 
One of the things that tipped me off were the valid times in the SWODY1. Knowing it was on the 15th of the month helped to narrow it down.

Rick
 
Huntsville NWS has got a great review of that outbreak on their site, it includes several of the outlooks issued that day including the one you posted.
 
Originally posted by Chris Sokol
Dang...you guys are good. Jeff was close, Michael Auker hit it on the head.

Geez...did I make it too easy?

I nailed it. All I needed was "happened before the 90s"
 
Originally posted by Rick Smith
One of the things that tipped me off were the valid times in the SWODY1. Knowing it was on the 15th of the month helped to narrow it down.

Rick

Perhaps next time I should pay attention. ;)
 
Originally posted by Michael Auker
Huntsville NWS has got a great review of that outbreak on their site, it includes several of the outlooks issued that day including the one you posted.

They're the oldest outlooks I have in the archive. Even has the graphics. :)

1989_11_15_1500_categorical.gif
 
Dang it...thought I pulled all references to date off...thanks for the heads up.

This particular event I not only got to chase, but then spent 20 hours on Airport Road working search and rescue with my fire dept. My fiancee (1st wife) lived in Hartselle, and received about $4000 damage to her car on the way home from baseballs plus.
 
OK...hehe...try this one...Day One Outlook...



CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...



THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE RAP 35 SW Y22 15 N Y22 25 SW BIS 45 ESE BIS 35 W ABR
30 WSW 9V9 20 SSW VTN 40 ESE CDR 40 SE RAP 25 ENE RAP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE BGS 60 NNW CDS 40 SE LBL 45 WSW HLC 45 NNE HLC 20 SSE HSI
35 SE BIE 25 ESE TOP 40 ENE CNU 20 WSW FYV 40 ESE PRX 55 SSW TYR
25 SSE CLL 50 SSE AUS 50 SSW JCT 55 NNW DRT 35 ESE BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 10 ESE EAU
30 WNW PIA 20 E JBR 30 SW UOX 35 WNW MEI 10 N LUL 30 WNW GPT
15 S MSY 25 SSW 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ENE GLS 45 WNW VCT 30 N COT
20 WNW COT 25 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 WNW DRT 30 W CDS 60 WSW GAG
15 NW LBL 35 ESE 4LJ 35 SE LHX 45 NW CAO 50 SSE RTN 20 SW LVS
20 E GUP 55 E PGA 20 WNW DPG 35 NNW TWF 50 SW 27U 50 NW 27U
25 SE 3TH 100 NE 63S.

--- SYNOPSIS ---
ROCKIES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS TROUGH NOW OVER SD EJECTS
NEWD...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER WRN AZ MOVES E. MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SWRN CONUS ON
BOTH SIDES OF THIS FEATURE WERE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERFORECAST BY
00Z/03Z ETA...BASED ON LATEST RAOB DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
REGIONAL VWP/ACARS. AVN WINDS/HEIGHTS ARE VERIFYING MUCH BETTER
THIS MORNING...AND SUGGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST BY ETA OVER SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
PROGGED AS IT MOVES ACROSS NERN AZ AND NM...REACHING TX PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW N GCC SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SD...WHILE
LEE TROUGH FARTHER S OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING.

... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION ...

--- CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ---
EXPECT GREATEST CONVECTIVE THREAT AFTER ABOUT 23Z...WHEN LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE
UPON DRYLINE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FOREGOING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO REMOVE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE MEANTIME...WHILE AIDING DIABATIC SURFACE
HEATING. ETA DESTABILIZATION N OF RED RIVER THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...IS OVERDONE BECAUSE OF HIGH DEW POINT
FORECASTS. LARGEST BUOYANCY SHOULD BE OVER N-CENTRAL/NWRN TX WHERE
MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS AND TEMPS MID 80S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...SBCAPE TO 4500 J/KG. ZONE OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE/ UVV IN ETA...ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
CYCLONICALLY CURVED SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX OVER MEX/S TX...SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK -- NOT WITH SUDDEN INTENSIFYING EVIDENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH ETA CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
TREND STORM EVOLUTION TOWARD HP THEN LINEAR VIA TWO PRIMARY EFFECTS
AT ANVIL LEVEL. THOUGH SR FLOW WILL NOT BE AS WEAK AS ETA
PROGS...IT STILL SHOULD BE GENERALLY AOB 40 KT WITH PRECIP PARTICLE
RECYCLING...AND FLOW DIRECTION SUGGESTS SEEDING FROM MERIDIONAL
COALESCENCE OF ANVILS UP AND DOWN CONVECTIVE ZONE. BRIEF WINDOW OF
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH A FEW STORMS BETWEEN ABOUT AN HOUR
AFTER INITIATION...AND FULLY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT HP TRANSITION.
HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
INITIATION...TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND.

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/ERN KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX AFTER 6Z. EXPECT
SOME LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND...AND A MARGINAL THREAT OF
EMBEDDED TORNADOES. SRN END OF BACKBUILDING LINE SOMEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL TX WILL BE DICTATED BY CAPPING AT BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ADVECTED OFF HIGH MEX PLATEAU...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT
ABOVE 750 MB IN 12Z DRT SOUNDING.

--- N-CENTRAL PLAINS ---
FOR MOST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND CURRENT EJECTING SD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND AID IN INSOLATION.
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...ISALLOBARIC FORCING INVOF LOW LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL RESULT IN BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE/LIFT ON MESO ALPHA SCALE. ETA PFC SOUNDINGS SHOW SMALL
HODOGRAPHS WITH SRH AOB 100 J/KG...BUT REGIONAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING
SHOULD STRENGTHEN NEAR-SURFACE FLOW MORE THAN PROGGED...INCREASING
SR LOW LEVEL INFLOW.

EXPECT MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LOW AND ATTACHED SURFACE
TROUGHS AND DRYLINE. A FEW STORMS SHOULD ROTATE...BUT WEAKNESSES
IN LOW-MID LEVEL SR FLOW ABOVE THAT SUGGEST MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. INSOLATION IS
SUCH A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO CAPE IN MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT THREAT SHOULD DECREASE GREATLY AFTER DARK.

..EDWARDS..
 
I have to agree with Dan, that it's May 3, 1999...

The one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is the fact that they thought the ETA was suffering from convective feedback by over-ampliying the trough (and associated mid level wind speeds)...
 
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