Guess the event

[Chris Sokol]

Something to pass the time...only way I had to post the data was to put it directly on here, so sorry for the length.

CONVECTIVE OURLOOK..REF AFOS NMCGPH940

VALID 151500 - 16120OZ

WW NR 747 VALID TIL 18Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PTNS OF ERN AR..ERN
LA..MS..AL.. TN..KY..GA..NWRN FL. AREA IS TO RT OF LN FM 50 S
GPT BTR ESF ELD JBR PAH SDF LEX LOZ TYS AHN AGS VLD 20 S
TLH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR ELSW TO RT OF LN
FM GLS SH HOT SLO DNV JXN MTC YNG INT CHS SSI CTY.

GEN TSTM ACTVTY TO RT OF LN FM MFE ALI TYS STI MKG APN.

VIGOROUS UPR LVL TROF DIGGING SEWD INTO CNTRL U.S. IN
RESPONSE TO VRY STG JET MAX MOVG SEWD OVR MT/WY.
AMS RAS BECOME VRY UNSTBL FM LA ACRS MS INTO TN/KY
WITH SFC BASED LI OF MINUS 7 TO MINUS 9. LATEST LFM
TENDS TO SHOW NEG TILT TO TROF ACRS GULF CST STATES
DURG PD AS STG BAND OF PVA MOVES EWD ACRS MS/AL/GA.
PRONOUNCED MID LVL DRYING PROGD TO MOVE EWD ACRS
LA/MS/AL TO N OF STG SUBTROP JET ORIENTED FM C TX
EWD TO SRN FL. SVR TSTMS EXPCD TO EXPLODE DURG AFTN
AHD STG CDFNT FM ERN VMS AR/LA INTO TN/KY AND MOVE
EWD ACRS VRY UNSTBL AMS. LOW LVL JET EXPCD TO CONT
STG AHD CDFNT FM LA/MS INTO KY PROVIDING FVRBL MSTR
CNVRGNC PAT. INCRSG UP LVL DVRGNC PAT OVR HIGH RISK
AREA GIVES THREAT OF DMGG TORNADOES. ISOLD SVR
TSTMS ALSO PSBL WITH SFC LOW MOVG NEWD ACRS IND/SERN
MI/OH WHERE AMS HAS LI OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY UNDER AFOS HEADER MKCPWOMKC.

..WILSON..

 

[Chris Sokol]

Public Severe Weather Outlook:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO

KANSAS CM MISSOURI
0930 AM CST

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI IS FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THE STATES WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
BRUNT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDE
PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...GEORGIA...
AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPLOSIVE
CONFRONTATION OF AIR MASSES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN
ARKANSAS...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EASTERN LOUISIANA.
LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDSTORMS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SA RULES...AND LISTEN TO RADIO..TV..OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..LARRY WILSON..

I've never done one of these before, so you all will have to help me out. Let me know what data you need. If I can get to it this morning, I will post charts and other data on my website.

 

[Joe Nield]

Well, just going by the outlooks, they reference AFOS and the NSSFC, so it is older than the late 90's.

I'm going to take a stab at guessing Palm Sunday Outbreak II, March 27, 1994.

 

[brody_clifton]

I'm going to guess Wednesday, April 8, 1998, the day Oak Grove, AL got hit hard.

 

[Jeff Wear]

My guess is the Nov 15-16, 1989 outbreak

 

[Michael P. Morris]

The Birmingham tornado?

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'll guess the Palm Sunday II outbreak.

 

[Michael Auker]

November 15, 1989; the day of the Huntsville Alabama F-4.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Dang...you guys are good. Jeff was close, Michael Auker hit it on the head.

Geez...did I make it too easy?

 

[Rick Smith]

One of the things that tipped me off were the valid times in the SWODY1. Knowing it was on the 15th of the month helped to narrow it down.

Rick

 

[Michael Auker]

Huntsville NWS has got a great review of that outbreak on their site, it includes several of the outlooks issued that day including the one you posted.

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Chris Sokol
Dang...you guys are good. Jeff was close, Michael Auker hit it on the head.

Geez...did I make it too easy?

I nailed it. All I needed was "happened before the 90s"

 

[Joe Nield]

Originally posted by Rick Smith
One of the things that tipped me off were the valid times in the SWODY1. Knowing it was on the 15th of the month helped to narrow it down.

Rick

Perhaps next time I should pay attention.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Michael Auker
Huntsville NWS has got a great review of that outbreak on their site, it includes several of the outlooks issued that day including the one you posted.

They're the oldest outlooks I have in the archive. Even has the graphics.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Dang it...thought I pulled all references to date off...thanks for the heads up.

This particular event I not only got to chase, but then spent 20 hours on Airport Road working search and rescue with my fire dept. My fiancee (1st wife) lived in Hartselle, and received about $4000 damage to her car on the way home from baseballs plus.