Ancient forecast discussions from 1980s

Joined
Dec 4, 2003
Messages
3,411
I thought some of you might enjoy seeing what forecast discussions looked like 20 years ago. Found them while sifting through some of my old disk images.

The first forecast discussion, btw, is written by none other than Alan Moller.

KFTW 160949
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST MON JAN 16 1989
MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS N AM WITH
FLAT RDG IN ERN PACIFIC AND FLAT TROF POSN ACRS CNTRL/E CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPR STORM TRACK SHIFTING NWD TO THE NRN PLAINS...AND AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RDG/TROF PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE 48 HR FCST PD...LTL CHC
FOR ANY SIG WX N TX AREA. THIS MRNG'S ST DECK SHOULD CONT TO MOV S AND BRK
UP THIS AFTN AS DRY SUBSIDING AIR CONTS TO FEED INTO AREA FM THE NW.
SOME CI STREAKS WL CONT TO MOV ACRS IN RELATIVELY STG UPR FLOW...BUT
CHANNELED NATURE OF WEAK VORT MAX'S WL INSURE LTL ELSE IN THE WAY OF
SIG VERT MOTIONS/CLDS. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABT MSTR RETURN MOVG UP
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS ADVERTISED BY LFM AND SM ON DAY 2...BUT MSTR WOULD
HAVE TO TURN A TIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CORNER TO MAKE IT INTO N TX...MORE THAN
LIKELY ANY CLDS WOULD BREAK UP OR MOV EWD IN SUCH A SITUATION. STILL...
ZONAL 3-WAVE PATTERN ARND THE NRN HEMISPHERE BEARS WATCHING AS SIG
ADJUSTMENTS ARE PSBL LATER IN THE WEEK.
ABI 59/32/64 001 ACT 58/32/62 001 SPS 53/25/62 001
.NT...NONE
#26


KFTW 152045
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CST SUN JAN 15 1989
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN COLD POCKET WRAPPED AROUND MINOR LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CLOUDS
ALONG THE RED RIVER EARLY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST
ZONES BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH
AND DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD MAXIMIZE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. 46
SPS...23/52/23/54 0000 ABI...29/54/23/55 0000 ACT...32/54/26/56 0000
.NT...NONE


KLBB 160148
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 PM CST SUN JAN 15 1989
WL MAKE ONLY MINOR 1ST PD CHGS TO AFTN PCKG...GENLY TO CLD GRP IN S &
TO WNDS N. OTRW...STATUS QUO. #53
.WT...NONE


KSAT 160828
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANTONIO TX
300 AM CST MON JAN 16 1989
SFC HI BRIDGING FNT. USING ALTIMETER SETTINGS WK CDFNT SOMEWHERE
ARND EGP-VCT-IAH LN. FNT WL MOV INTO CSTL WATERS TDA. SUFF CAA CUD
INCRS WINDS OVR CSTL WATER TO NR 20 KTS TDA AND DIE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
TNGT. NELY WNDS WL SLOLY TURN EAST AND SE TUES. LOW CLDS BAND IN LWR
VLY INTO CSTL WATERS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION. SHUD SEE SOME BREAKS
IN CLDS TDA BUT CONT MSTL CLDY. OTRW ONLY JET CI MAR THE SKY. LO CLDS
PROGGED TO SHIFT WWD ACRS RIO GRANDE AND RTRN TUE NGT WRN ZNS.
FOGGY CONDS WL PRESIST UNTIL FROPA SOMETIME THIS MRNG. BY TIME ZNS
GO OUT FOG MAY BE CONFINED TO SML AREA...SO WL LET LOCAL WSOS DECIDE
ON ADVY. LFM AND NGM CONT EAST-WEST HI PRES RGD OVR AREA WITH LFM MOV
HI CNTR WELL EAST BY TUE ALLOWING SLY WND RETURN TO ZNS WITH WEST TX
TROF DEEPENING. NGM SLOER BUT POINTS TWD THE SAME END. LONG STRETCH
OF VORT MAXS AT H5 SHOW UP IN SAT PIX AS CI. THIS WL SHIFT SWD INTO
AREA TUE AND PSBLY SQUEEZE A LTL RAIN OUT OF CLDS IN WRN ZNS TUE. 6
.ST...SML CRAFT ADVY TDA BPT-BRO


KLIT 160927
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CST MON JAN 16 1989
STBL AMS OVR AR ATTM WL KEEP THE STATE DRY. TEMPS ARE MAIN FCST PROBLEM.
MDLS AGREE ON KEEPG RDG OVR AR AS HIGH SINKS TO SE TX AND MOVS SLOLY E
DURG NXT 48 HRS. BACK FLOW ARND HI SHUD HELP WRM TMPS ABV NORMAL RDNGS
FOR THIS TIME OF YR. FLOW ALF WL STRING VORT PATN W-E ALLOWING SOME HI
CLDNS TDA AND TUE.
.AR...NONE


KOKC 160255
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY, OK
823 PM CST SUN JAN 15 1989
STG SHORT WAVE EXTDG FM VORTICITY MAX NR THE MN/WISCONSIN BRDR SWWD TO NWRN
OK THIS EVENING IS SLGTLY FASTER THAN FCST BY THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE AVN
APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED BEST. REFLECTON OF UPPER TROF IS THE SFC TROF WHICH
EXTDS FM SERN MO ACRS SERN OK TO SRN TX. PRESSURE RISES BHND TROF ACRS OK AN

NRN TX WOULD ARGUE FOR ITS CONTD SWD PROGRESSION. WK CAA IS IN PROGRESS ACRS
OK THIS EVENING...AND CAA ALG WTH VIRTUALLY NO PIVA IN THE SRN PTN OF
THE TROF HAS RESULTED IN DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVR MOST OF OK. STRATUS
HAS RETREATED SWD DURG THE EVENING HOURS AND LIKELY WL CONT TO CLR SLOLY SEW

FOR THE NXT FEW HRS. OKC AND UMN SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW ARND 75 MB OF
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR JUST OFF THE SFC. EXPC THAT MID LVL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALG WTH STAGNANT NRLY SATURATED AIR IN THE LO LVLS WL COMBINE TO
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
SNOW PACK FM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TO NERN OK WHERE NRLY BLACK BODY RADIATION
FM THE SNOW SHUD GENERATE A SHARP INVERSION WTH SOME MOISTURE INCR WTH HGT.
SHLW GROUND FOG ALREADY HAS FORMED IN THE OKC METROPOLITAN AREA AND PROBABLY
IS FAIRLY WDSPRD OVR THE SNOWPACK. WL INTRODUCE A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR TNGT AN

MON MRNG IN AND NR THE SNOW FIELD. WL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING ON
ROADWAYS IN THE SPS WHICH WL BE ISSUED DIRECTLY.
NXT BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RPDLY THE FOG AND STRATUS WL BURN OFF MON.
CURRENT PKG CALLS FOR DCRG CLOUDINESS BY ERY AFTN...AND WL NOT MAKE ANY
CHGS IN THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. SLGTLY DRIER AIR SHUD GRDLY FILTER
INTO CNTRL AND SERN OK AS DOWNSLOPE SWLY FLO DVLPS WTH LEE TROFG MON.
THE ERL PROBABLY IS OVERDOING THE LEE TROFG AND THE GRADIENT ACRS OK MON
...AND MIXING LIKELY WL NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD AS THE ERL WOULD IMPLY.
HOWEVER...WL HOPE FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO LWR THE BNDRY LYR RH BY AFTN.
ASSUMING THAT DRIER AIR GRDLY INVADES OK MON...RMNDR OF THE FCST PD SHUD
BE FAIR WTH A WRMG TREND. THE POLAR JET AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WL BE ACRS
THE NRN US FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS...AND THE NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE STG FLO WL AFFECT OK ONLY IN THE SENSE THAT LEE TROFG WL FORM IN ADVANCE
OF EACH THEN DRFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES AS EACH TROF PASSES. EXPC
PERIODIC WSHFTS ESPECIALLY IN WRN OK BUT CAN SEE NO POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OR
INVASION OF COLDER AIR WTH LOTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
08
TUL 26/49/29/54 -000
.OK...DENSE FOG ADVY TNGT AND MON MRNG ZNS 7>8 11>13 15>20 22>24~r
 
At that time, of course, a lot of the forecasters/mets were still old school and the use of abbreviations was imperative during the days of teletype and extremely low transmission/receiving speeds. At this time period (BTW, 1989 isn't ancient! :D) I was stationed at MCAF Quantico. We would send our obs and TAF's via COMEDS and it would sometimes take up to two minutes for Carswell to pick them up (all the time with us praying, "Please don't let me make the AXXX!.) Since they were already coded, we didn't have to worry about shortening them up. But that's an indication of how slow things still were even only 20 years ago.

I believe even AFOS was only 9600 baud and when we had our 88D PUP installed in 1991, the speed from the RPG was only 9600 baud! (dedicated circuit though.)

And as someone who had to rip and post teletype for a few years, I can tell you the less that Model 40 chattered, the better. SO thank goodness for the abbreviated discussions! :D

Now, here's a real tough quest for anyone willing to take the challenge. It was not uncommon, especially during the holidays, for a lot of weird things to come over COMEDS (ASCII christmas trees, PIREPS with sighting of Santa, obs with Super Bowl prediction comments, etc.) Does anyone have any of those archived anywhere?
 
But are you tough enough?

Ha... that's an interesting anachronism, especially since New Kids On The Block came out with that record in 1989.

Tim
 
Gosh, I miss those abbreviations. They made reading forecast discussions so much a challenge depending on the writer. In a way they remind me of the old teletype machines I used to watch with awe at the Tulsa NWS back in the mid 1970's. Pungent smell of hot ink and oil mixed together. Get four or five of those babies going full throttle during a severe weather outbreak and it sounded like a jackhammer convention.
 
We have an Internet now. Why can't we write normal forecasts with grammar and punctuation? Yeah, I've asked it before, yeah tradition, etc. etc. But I'm sure they all can write ... they probably didn't do dissertations in allcaps and abbreviations. ;)
 
We have an Internet now. Why can't we write normal forecasts with grammar and punctuation? Yeah, I've asked it before, yeah tradition, etc. etc. But I'm sure they all can write ... they probably didn't do dissertations in allcaps and abbreviations. ;)

Darrin,
Look at almost anything people write anymore and it looks like people have lost the ability to write out words, spell correctly, and use punctuation. In my opinion, people have gotten too rushed to write a word out and they wind up abbreviating most any word now. Either that or they can not spell anyway and if they abbreviate, nobody will know they can not spell. For an example, look at the posts on forums. You almost need a separate book to learn what some of this stuff means.
I guess in certain places, abbreviating made be helpful or useful, as in text messaging on a cell phone, as the space is limited, but in a normal writing situation, I do not understand it.
 
We have an Internet now. Why can't we write normal forecasts with grammar and punctuation? Yeah, I've asked it before, yeah tradition, etc. etc. But I'm sure they all can write ... they probably didn't do dissertations in allcaps and abbreviations. ;)

I agree, and it's something I'm trying to change, at least locally. In the old teletype days, in addition to having to abbreviate because of slow transmission speeds, (correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm not positive) I've heard that any punctuation, aside from the slash and the period, were disallowed characters. So in addition to seeing abbreviations, you would also get misuse of the period. One that's still used often, and one that bugs me, is the (mis)use of the ellipsis. We can now use commas, so it's not necessary to use an ellipsis as a comma surrogate.

Oh, and don't get me started on the word "however"! Almost every time it's used, it needs a comma after it. How often does it happen? About 40% of the time.

</rant>
 
However you look at it, it's still a forecast discussion however there is nothing we can do to fix it and they will do it however they want to.
 
NOAA Weather Radio is a perfect example of why product formats haven't changed. The system was programmed to decode the text products recognizing the standard of writing at the time. This included the use of all caps and periods and slashes as being the only punctuation allowed. For example, the use of ellipses tells the voice processor to pause. They are also used to delineate headlines in products like the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Sure, we could change everything to being grammatically correct, but think of it in terms of resources. Many systems that used to be manually operated, like NOAA Weather Radio, are now automated. So, a lot of time, money, and personnel would have to be dedicated to reprogramming all the systems to recognize, decode, and allow the changes. That programming would have to be debugged, shipped to each office, and then installed. Scheduling of installations is another thing all together. I'm sure there are plenty of systems used in the private sector that would have to be modified, too. In the end, a change like this offers no operational improvements. In my opinion, those resources would be better spent on things like phased array, deploying dual-pol, or AWIPS 2.

On a personal note, I'm really looking forward to the next FROPA. We need some more TSRA in the Texas Panhandle to get some more water in MRIT2. We could just do with the SVR, TOR, FFW.
 
Another thing to consider is that until the proliferation of the internet, products such as the AFD's, AC's and TC discussions were considered "in house" and very rarely say the light of day outside the walls of meteorological offices.

Being somewhat of the old school, I personally have no problem with the continued use of contractions and abbreviations. But the points about the proper use of grammer and spelling are certainly well taken.

Now, if we could only bring back the original METAR (not airways) code which the NWS bastardized back in 95/96 for American consumption! Oh wait, I forgot; that can't happen. ASOS can't distinguish cloud types. Nevermind. :D
 
Looks like Japan pines for the old format too.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/sur...dard&num_metars=number&submit_metars=Retrieve

RJCC 251300Z 19007KT 9999 FEW006 SCT008 BKN015 17/15 Q1020 RMK 1ST006 4ST008 7ST015 A3013

The old cloud code format was actual layer coverage, estimated as best as possible, not summation. That is as meteorologically useful as sky condition can get. But of course some bureaucrat decided to change just for the sake of change, then we ended up removing the human element from observation. Well, at least we're getting dense station coverage.

Tim
 
Back
Top