Global Warming

[Andrew Stoller]

What is everyone's consensus on global warming? Do you think it in fact is from man made greenhouse gas emissions or natural climate cycling??? I know there's many meteorology students here along with a few meteorologists who are far more knowledgeable on the subject than I.

The debate it seems has become far too political with each extreme dominating the debate and muddying legitimate argument. As of this date, it seems a majority of scientists think it's from man made causes but the folks who lean to the right then get into the whole "science is religion" type deviation.

Thanks

 

[Mike Smith]

Andrew,

Please see this thread: http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=9830&highlight=global+warming

As of this date, it seems a majority of scientists think it's from man made causes

It may be true that a majority of "scientists" believe in human-caused "global warming" but, based on numerous conversations, it does not appear that a majority of meteorologists believe it.

but the folks who lean to the right then get into the whole "science is religion" type deviation.

I have no idea what you mean by the above, but it is probably inappropriate to bring religion into the discussion on this board, which is science-based.

Happy '007 to you!

Mike Smith

 

[Paul Austin]

Both sides have it wrong. An ultra-secret society within the government is responsible for all global warming since the 1940's in an effort to create a favorable climate for the alien race which will soon replace us. At least I think that's what I learned from X-Files.

Seriously though, this topic was discussed at some length in 2005 (see Stormtrack links below), but there are many new faces to Stormtrack these days.

EDIT: I see Mike got the links in before I did. Kudos.

Personally, I certainly believe there is ample evidence to support cyclic warming/cooling, but there is certainly plenty of evidence to support man's contribution. Nature seems to have some failsafes in place and is rather resillient. That said, if humanity can find ways to limit its direct impact on climate, it probably should seek to do so. It only takes rather tiny climate changes in isolated areas to affect the entire world in rather unpleasant ways. Some of those changes and cycles are inevitable; history clearly supports this. But imagine large changes on a global scale. I don't care who the experts are. No one knows the impact. I am not a big fan of either the Al Gore folks or the ignore-it-&-it-will-go-away crowd. Some kind of reasonable discussion has to take place before anything positive is accomplished. I AM happy that, whether I agree with their position or not, there are such individuals who care passionately enough to act on their convictions. Learn all you can and do what you can. Take some responsibility. Oops, I'm preaching, and I haven't even taken a side. I don't really know if there is even two cents worth here, but it is what it is.

Global Warming Intensifying Hurricane Activity?

Science debates:global warming...

Maybe we'll get it all figured out before the aliens come.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I have no idea what you mean by the above, but it is probably inappropriate to bring religion into the discussion on this board, which is science-based.

My apologies................my point was some people throw peer reviewed science out the window claiming it's just as much a belief if you will. Had nothing to do with religion per se.

But thanks for the links fellas. I did a search but couldn't really find a long thread where quite knowledgeable members here duked it out for 10 pages. That's what I was looking for! Everything you find online is politically swayed to each extreme of the issue; it's hard to find a good debate between truly knowledgeable folks with some civility and reason.

 

[Martin North]

But thanks for the links fellas. I did a search but couldn't really find a long thread where quite knowledgeable members here duked it out for 10 pages. That's what I was looking for! Everything you find online is politically swayed to each extreme of the issue; it's hard to find a good debate between truly knowledgeable folks with some civility and reason.

I see UKww carries a link to Stormtrack so they shouldn't mind me posting this...

I moderate a very active climate forum here with scientists & members from around the world. You would be most welcome.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/forum-view.asp?fid=30

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

More evidence of global waming!

Can you imagine how cold this would be if global warming wasn't already taking place...? In honesty, this has been a remarkable pattern as of late, ontil the other day, the North American continent has been the only place where temps have been substantially below normal in the entire northern hemisphere.

After my chase party (sat. 1pm here at my farm in Piedmont, OK..refer to Announcements header) I'm hoping to make a trip up to the U.P of Mich. and Minnesota for that next week. Hopefully, I'll be enjoying my 10 below and 2 feet of snow.. which was pretty much standard fare for me before moving here to Okla.

I think after that trip... I'll be ready for that sloshing dryline and 70 dewpoints!!

Rocky&family

 

[rdale]

If it's hot -- global warming.
If it's stormy -- global warming.
No tornados? Global warming.
If it's very cold -- global warming.

Everything in weather is -- global warming!

 

[Brad Berry]

Global warming is a farce.

 

[rdale]

Wrong answer. Global warming is real - claiming specific effects vs. that of regular weather is a farce.

 

[Stan Rose]

Wrong answer. Global warming is real - claiming specific effects vs. that of regular weather is a farce.

Wrong again. There's no such thing as 'regular weather'. And while i think one can go overboard (aka media hype) by fingering specific events, if the statistics make it more favorable for an extreme event to occur, then i think it's fair to blame the thing that has shaped the statistics.
Anyhow, tis gonna be really cold if the extended globals pan out, looks like international falls might finally get back to real winter conditions--minus 35 at 850--brrrrr.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

I think looking into the solar cylces of our sun is worth looking into. I think this may have to do more with global waring than any believe. Not that this is the only cause but I believe it needs to be addressed. With a weakening atmosphere due to global warming it would be wise to thik about the effects the solar cycles will have on us. The next big solar cycle occurs in about 5 years. It should be a big one to. We are not even into the peak of the cycles and we are already seeing an increase in solar activity.

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

A cooling world by 2015 ? Some very interest reading about solar cycles and climate in the next decades:

http://www.physorg.com/news66581392.html

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070115/59078992.html

http://bourabai.georisk.kz/landscheidt/new-e.htm (Highly Recommended)

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=20516

A very interesting paper:

ABSTRACT:

The precisely dated isotopic composition of a stalagmite from Spannagel Cave
in the Central Alps is translated into a highly resolved record of temperature
at high elevation during the past 2000 yr. Temperature maxima during the
Medieval Warm Period between 800 and 1300 AD are in average about 1.7°C higher than the minima in the Little Ice Age and similar to present-day values.
The high correlation of this record to d14C suggests that solar variability was a major driver of climate in Central Europe during the past 2 millennia.

Mangini, A., C. Spötl, and P. Verdes. 2005.
Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000 yr
from a d18O stalagmite record.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 235, Issues 3-4, Pages 741-751,
15 July 2005. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.05.010

Data from this paper available at NCDC's NOAA website:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/speleothem/europe/austria/spannagel2005.txt

Media and global warming:

 

[David Wolfson]

See http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=9830.

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

We are skeptics in a country of believers:

REUTERS

8:02 a.m. January 29, 2007

OSLO – Thirteen percent of Americans have never heard of global warming even though their country is the world's top source of greenhouse gases, a 46-country survey showed on Monday.

The report, by ACNielsen of more than 25,000 Internet users, showed that 57 percent of people around the world considered global warming a 'very serious problem' and a further 34 percent rated it a 'serious problem'.

Advertisement'It has taken extreme and life-threatening weather patterns to finally drive the message home that global warming is happening and is here to stay unless a concerted, global effort is made to reverse it,' said Patrick Dodd, the President of ACNielsen Europe.

People in Latin America were most worried while U.S. citizens were least concerned with just 42 percent rating global warming 'very serious'.

The United States emits about a quarter of all greenhouse gases, the biggest emitter ahead of China, Russia and India.

Thirteen percent of U.S. citizens said they had never heard or read anything about global warming, the survey said.

Almost all climate scientists say that temperatures are creeping higher because of heat-trapping greenhouse gases released by burning fossil fuels.

The study also found that 91 percent of people had heard about global warming and 50 percent reckoned it was caused by human activities.

A U.N. report due on Friday is set to say it is at least 90 percent probable that human activities are the main cause of warming in the past 50 years.

People in China and Brazil were most convinced of the link to human activities and Americans least convinced.

The survey said that people living in regions vulnerable to natural disasters seemed most concerned – ranging from Latin Americans worried by damage to coffee or banana crops to people in the Czech Republic whose country was hit by 2002 floods.

In Latin America, 96 percent of respondents said they had heard of global warming and 75 percent rated it 'very serious'.

Most industrial nations have signed up for the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, which imposed caps on emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from factories, power plants and vehicles.

President George W. Bush pulled the United States out of Kyoto in 2001, but said last week that climate change was a 'serious challenge'.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

If it's hot -- global warming.
If it's stormy -- global warming.
No tornados? Global warming.
If it's very cold -- global warming.

Everything in weather is -- global warming!

Agreed. Summer 2005 was the 3rd coldest on record here in central Illinois. Nothing said. 2006 is one of the warmest summers on record... THE EARTH IS BEING DESTROYED.

Sorry, I really haven't researched the issue as much as others, just poking some fun.