Warmin' it up a bit!
If global warming is the cause of the increased tropical activity, then we have a major problem.
There is still the possibility that the north atlantic current (NAO) can be causing the milder winters in the NE USA each winter and the increased hurricane activity in the tropics. Note that the Pacific side, is very quiet compared to the Atlantic.
Back in the 1980's I remember the E Pacific basin using the whole alphabet, now they barely make it to the "K" storm. Back in the period from the 1930's to the 1960's, hurricane activity was higher in the Atlantic.
Then it lulled from the 1970's to the 1990's (Andrew and Hugo being unlucky isolated events), then increased again from 1995 until present. The NAO is a 20-30 year cycle, and will "go away" as the cycle becomes opposed later. It's a long wait, but there is "light at the tunnel's end" for hurricane-haters.
Now global warming can be compared to the NAO just like comparing a bill of health from your doctor saying "You have AIDS" or "You're cholesterol is high", respectively. The global warming issue clearly is a "no cure" scenario, at least in our lifetimes.
This is because of petroleum and greenhouse gases from agriculture, transportation, and industry. It is a gobal-wide issue, and the USA is only rersponsible for a small portion of these CO2, methane, SO2, etc. emissions.
Central and South America often burns trash outdoors each day, I have seen many there doing it. Do that here in the US, and you will be arrested in most cases. To make things worse, the rain-forest there is being destroyed, fast. Trees are cleared, to make room for methane-producing cattle and farming. The trees are not only not replaced, but burned (slash-and-burn). In the US, trees are chopped down, but new ones are usually planted.
In Panama City (Panama), a thick haze is always in the sky. Normally, the deep tropics have a deep clean and blue sky. This is caused by the burning and deforestation in neighboring South America (Colombia, Brazil) causing smoke carried by the equilateral trade winds. Scares me since you can see the "mark" on the sky that way. You could smell it too. From the air, you cannot even see the ground unless you are on final approach into that part of the world.
In a more natural sense, there are lots of other things that can cause greenhouse gassing. CO2 and Methane are stored in the ocean and volcanic areas. A large release of such gasses is possible, and Methane is hundreds of times more potent at warming than CO2 is (don't fart!) ... Animals, such as cows and livestock, also create large amounts of methane.
The effects of global warming now, even scarier, are also from damage done several years or even decades ago too. Remember that gas guzzling smoking mustang your dad had when you were a kid?
Much research is being done on this issue to find and answer. Hopefully, it is the NAO cycle and not the latter, more grim, global-warming model.
Atlantic sea-surface temperatures this year of 2005 have been found to be as much as two (2) degrees above normal. This is why the Atlantic tropics have been so busy lately. Last year, 2004, was only one (1) degree above normal. Now, compare that to the Sci-Fi movie "day after tomorrow" where the temperature was 13 degrees off!
