Friday fun: where will Ivan make landfall?

[Tony Laubach]

I am going to say Bonita Springs, north of Naples, south of Fort Myers.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

I am going to see what Ivan does until lock time before giving a more precise landfall. This is fun, but I would like a shot at the book too!

 

[Melissa Moon]

I said TX/LA for completely unscientific reasons ; the hope that Florida doesn't get smashed again.

 

[Mark Plate]

Sanibel Island

 

[KMcCallister]

I'll go with the opening of the Steinhatchee River next to Steinhatchee, Florida.

Location 29.667 north 83.417 west

 

[B Ozanne]

Where do you think Ivan will make its initial landfall on the continent? This poll will turn itself off after one day, so choose soon. Dividing line between W and E Florida can be Marathon (in the Everglades).

Tim,

So it has to be a mainland point, or can it be someplace in the Keys?

 

[Doug Lee]

I have a feeling that Ivan is controlled more by its own momentum than by any external steering forces. Landfall location will depend on when the external steering begins to dominate and push it to the NE.

My guess is near Lake Charles LA.

 

[David Wolfson]

My vote is for the Florida west coast just a few miles north of where Charley landed. Precisely, Englewood Beach.

Once Ivan gets into the gulf, there's enough steering flow to guide it toward the coast IMO.

 

[Jay McCoy]

If you look at water vapor you can see the ridge building over the Texas/Louisiana coast which should shove it NNE into west florida. If it tries to go NNW towards Tx it will run into dry air and alot of shear and die. Tampa dodged the first one. This is their make-up test. Good thing the Bucs play in washington this weekend.

 

[Jason_Politte]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
Feel free to answer with an exact landfall location before midnight Friday night. The thread will be locked at that time. I'll send the closest guess a free copy of one of my weather books (not that you'll need one if you can get a forecast that good!)

Well, just for fun, I'll say between Dekle Beach and Steinhatchee, FL.

Jason Politte

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Bill - no, the Keys don't count.. it has to be a continental landfall.

 

[Sheila_Ward]

Weeki Wachee, FL

 

[David Schuttler]

Carrabelle,FL

 

[Carrie Halliday]

To make a pinpoint guess.....where is a dart board when I need one.

Madeira Beach, FL. Leaving Tampa on the dirty side of Ivan.

 

[B Ozanne]

Naples, FL