Friday fun: where will Ivan make landfall?

[Tim Vasquez]

A totally unscientific poll... no meteorological reasoning is needed! Experiment with your tea leaves and dartboard if you like... this is just for good fun.

Where do you think Ivan will make its initial landfall on the continent? This poll will turn itself off after one day, so choose soon. Dividing line between W and E Florida can be Marathon (in the Everglades).

Feel free to answer with an exact landfall location before midnight Friday night. The thread will be locked at that time. I'll send the closest guess a free copy of one of my weather books (not that you'll need one if you can get a forecast that good!)

 

[Thomas Loades]

I say TX/LA, but that it'll go over the Yucatan Peninsula first, lose its punch, and come ashore on the lower TX coast as a cat-2.

 

[Jeff Wear]

Fort Morgan AL as a borderline Cat 2/Cat 3

 

[Greg Campbell]

My noob forcasting skilz put it ashore in Alabama or the far west FL. Panhandle.
I'll guess it holds onto Cat 3 'till landfall.

In the meantime, Jamaca and the west end of Cuba are gonna get creamed.

-Greg

<edited for precision!>
OK, Tim. It's gonna pass right over Pascagoula MS!

 

[mrobinson]

I'm putting landfall near Osprey/Sarasota

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Somewhere near Salina, KS. The east side of Lake Wilson I believe :wink: It's too early in the morning for a more accurate guess 8)

Tim

 

[Bridget Beddow]

OOOOOHHHHH North Carolina's not even on the poll, I'm so depressed!!

I voted for the Eastern portion of Florida, with an I 95 path.

 

[Anthony Petito]

I agree with a TX/LA hit... I think it may track a bit further westward as the models all changed to show that westerly track. Although, I see it making landfall as a cat-3 a bit stronger after it's job through the Gulf. Could be bad news for New Orleans if it does hit there though...

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Between Pensacola and Fort walton beach as a strong cat 3

 

[Dan Cook]

Same area as Charley.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I'm going with the NHC forecast...50 mi. north of Tampa. I believe it will be low end Cat. 3 when it strikes FL.

Gabe

 

[tom hanlon]

Fun Poll.. unless you live in Fla.

I think Ivan is moving slow and will likely recurve E more than the Hurricane Prediction center is accounting for. I was tempted to go with a wild prediction of heading off into the atlantic but my better wild guess sez.

Hurricane Ivan will::
Make landfall on the west coast of Fla. Eyewall and center of Ivan will make landfall between Marco and Naples. THe Rookery Bay Estuarine research center will take a direct hit. From there to Immokatee, NW sector of lake Okeechobee. Exit Florida to the Atlantic around Sebastion FLA.

The roads get awful sparse down there.. Hurricane chasers will be unable to get close to the eye without severe risks.

Final answer...

Tom

 

[Carrie Halliday]

While I wish Ivan would come pay me a visit (calling you out Ivan, bring it on!), I am leaning AT THIS TIME more at a west coastal FL landfall. Just because the weather gods have a personal thing with FL this year. Who made Ma Nature mad down there! Direct hit: Somewhere between Marco and St Petersburg. Cat 3.

 

[Tyler Yarnell]

I'm going to say between Inglis and the Perry area

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Everyone -- if you're making a guess specifically to win the book, you'll need to be extremely precise in your landfall location (i.e. a town or lat/long). "Betweens" are ok.. I'll just use the halfway point. Otherwise if it's just for fun, no big deal.