Friday fun: where will Ivan make landfall?

Where will Ivan make its continental landfall?

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A totally unscientific poll... no meteorological reasoning is needed! Experiment with your tea leaves and dartboard if you like... this is just for good fun.

Where do you think Ivan will make its initial landfall on the continent? This poll will turn itself off after one day, so choose soon. Dividing line between W and E Florida can be Marathon (in the Everglades).

Feel free to answer with an exact landfall location before midnight Friday night. The thread will be locked at that time. I'll send the closest guess a free copy of one of my weather books (not that you'll need one if you can get a forecast that good!)
 
I say TX/LA, but that it'll go over the Yucatan Peninsula first, lose its punch, and come ashore on the lower TX coast as a cat-2.
 
My noob forcasting skilz put it ashore in Alabama or the far west FL. Panhandle.
I'll guess it holds onto Cat 3 'till landfall.

In the meantime, Jamaca and the west end of Cuba are gonna get creamed.

-Greg

<edited for precision!>
OK, Tim. It's gonna pass right over Pascagoula MS!
 
Somewhere near Salina, KS. The east side of Lake Wilson I believe :wink: It's too early in the morning for a more accurate guess 8)

Tim
 
OOOOOHHHHH North Carolina's not even on the poll, I'm so depressed!!

I voted for the Eastern portion of Florida, with an I 95 path.
 
I agree with a TX/LA hit... I think it may track a bit further westward as the models all changed to show that westerly track. Although, I see it making landfall as a cat-3 a bit stronger after it's job through the Gulf. Could be bad news for New Orleans if it does hit there though...
 
Fun Poll.. unless you live in Fla.

I think Ivan is moving slow and will likely recurve E more than the Hurricane Prediction center is accounting for. I was tempted to go with a wild prediction of heading off into the atlantic but my better wild guess sez.

Hurricane Ivan will::
Make landfall on the west coast of Fla. Eyewall and center of Ivan will make landfall between Marco and Naples. THe Rookery Bay Estuarine research center will take a direct hit. From there to Immokatee, NW sector of lake Okeechobee. Exit Florida to the Atlantic around Sebastion FLA.

The roads get awful sparse down there.. Hurricane chasers will be unable to get close to the eye without severe risks.

Final answer...

Tom
 
While I wish Ivan would come pay me a visit (calling you out Ivan, bring it on!), I am leaning AT THIS TIME more at a west coastal FL landfall. Just because the weather gods have a personal thing with FL this year. Who made Ma Nature mad down there! Direct hit: Somewhere between Marco and St Petersburg. :D Cat 3.
 
Everyone -- if you're making a guess specifically to win the book, you'll need to be extremely precise in your landfall location (i.e. a town or lat/long). "Betweens" are ok.. I'll just use the halfway point. Otherwise if it's just for fun, no big deal.
 
I am going to see what Ivan does until lock time before giving a more precise landfall. This is fun, but I would like a shot at the book too!
 
Where do you think Ivan will make its initial landfall on the continent? This poll will turn itself off after one day, so choose soon. Dividing line between W and E Florida can be Marathon (in the Everglades).

Tim,

So it has to be a mainland point, or can it be someplace in the Keys?
 
I have a feeling that Ivan is controlled more by its own momentum than by any external steering forces. Landfall location will depend on when the external steering begins to dominate and push it to the NE.

My guess is near Lake Charles LA.
 
My vote is for the Florida west coast just a few miles north of where Charley landed. Precisely, Englewood Beach.

Once Ivan gets into the gulf, there's enough steering flow to guide it toward the coast IMO.
 
If you look at water vapor you can see the ridge building over the Texas/Louisiana coast which should shove it NNE into west florida. If it tries to go NNW towards Tx it will run into dry air and alot of shear and die. Tampa dodged the first one. This is their make-up test. Good thing the Bucs play in washington this weekend.
 
Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
Feel free to answer with an exact landfall location before midnight Friday night. The thread will be locked at that time. I'll send the closest guess a free copy of one of my weather books (not that you'll need one if you can get a forecast that good!)

Well, just for fun, I'll say between Dekle Beach and Steinhatchee, FL.

Jason Politte
 
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