Forecasting Skill going downhill ???

[Dustin Wilcox]

Jeez man, everywhere I look Billy, you are involved in a conflict. I believe the SPC forecasters are doing their job, they are not creating panic the general public does generally not read the SPC outlooks in anything they are just getting us chasers blood flowing then sending us home dissapointed. I guess if you are lossing faith or are dissapointed with the SPC then refrain from reading or viewing their outlooks that should solve your problem!

 

[Joe Nield]

Originally posted by George Tincher
But I must say, I admire a forecaster who's willing to go out on a limb from time to time if he/she sees something they think will be big.

ABSOLUTELY! It takes guts to stick your neck out, even in those situations where all the guidance points towards a record event. I applaud anyone with the boldness to do that, even if they turn out to be wrong.

 

[Pete Johnson]

In my 5+ years of forecasting, Sunday looks awesome.

In addition, forecasting is not an exact science. The forecaster in the discussion say in the 25 yrs. of 'this forecaster's' experience, not anyone else's. And if the media does want to blow this up based on the discussion, it is their own fault for not making a better forecast.

 

[twarner]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin


To me, it appears our forecasters are \"crying wolf\" a great deal this year. No excuse to me, they've got the tools to forecast this stuff correctly... that HIGH RISK day on Sat... NEVER should have been HIGH... Moderate only.

Here is what occurred on Saturday

Doesn't this meet the guidance that SPC has provided on what type of evensts to expect on a High Risk Day?

A SLGT risk implies well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected but in small numbers and/or low coverage. Within a slight risk area, 5-29 reports of 1 inch of larger hail, and/or 3-5 tornadoes, and/or 5-29 wind events are forecast.

MDT risks imply a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather. Within a moderate risk area, at least 30 reports of hail 1 inch or larger, or 6-19 tornadoes, or numerous wind events (30 that might be associated with a squall line, bow echo or derecho) are forecast.

The HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports.

 

[Mike Johnston]

As I understand, these AFD's do not actually represent the work product of the NWS forecasters - their work product is the forecast itself. The AFD's are kind of like workpapers, notes, etc. that give insight into the forecaster's thinking. The wording can be more liberal and colorful so as to convey the thinking process of the individual forecaster, which is appropriate in such a format. Personally, I find perusing these AFD's to be very educational and, at times, entertaining. However, being open to public viewing (as well as reviewed by the forecaster's boss, I assume), I agree with Billy that it seems the forecasters would be at least sensitive to the magnitude of the message being conveyed.

Now, if for some as yet unknown reason, this forecaster used wording that was flagrantly overstating the professional judgement reasonably expected of someone in his position - then the incident should be a very important component of his next performance review by his superiors. However, none of us are in a position to make such a judgement based on the information currently available. For the time being, you have to give this forecaster the benefit of the doubt and respect this as a valuable, professional opinion. I don't observe this as part of a growing, general "cry wolf" trend of the Norman office or the NWS. If it were, I don't think this particular AFD would have stood out like it has. For now, I think interested parties should respect this as a "canary in a coal mine" alert and be attentive.

Another subtle point - his statement was in the context of his 25 years of experience. That doesn't necessarily mean he was openly predicting an event as severe as any event in the past 25 years - he may or may not have had a forecast role in some of the more significant events over the past 25 years. Obviously, though, his statement carries some serious weight - it will be of more than passing interest to see what he has to say tomorrow!

 

[Chris Sokol]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Billy Griffin)</div>

Nothing critical was ever meant, only suggest SPC / OUN, etc. etc. use better scrutiny in their wording before creating panic.[/b]

Are you kidding me?

<!--QuoteBegin-Billy Griffin
after seeing the big \"screw up\" today on OUN's 10:37am forecast discussion calling for Armageddon, how do the rest of you feel on SPC's and Norman's seemingly \"lack of\" ability to forecast this year.

To emphasize the \"end of the world\" is just stupid.

To me, it appears our forecasters are \"crying wolf\" a great deal this year. No excuse to me, they've got the tools to forecast this stuff correctly...

Nothing critical was ever meant....uh huh.

 

[John MacKay]

I used to remember when I was better at forecasting with my weather knowledge than the TV meteorologists in Wichita. Then I went to college and didn't go outside as much. The meteorologists have seemingly gotten better in the overall picture even though they aren't great in forecasting a period 3-4 days away.

Today, they look at more than I do, but look at the same things I do as well. They have done a very good job ever since 5/3/99 (remember the Wichita metro had an F4 that killed six that day/evening as well). They also have learned of ways to get information to the public before the event happens, especially on Saturdays here since most stations around here don't get to tell you something until 6 PM when the storms are already going.

Meterologists have become better in preparing the public. This year has humbled everyone and their mother. That being said, the Day 3 outlooks for the May 29th and June 12th events hinted at a very dangerous situation with long-track tornadoes.

I agree that the SPC has busted more than usual, but it happens. We will catch it more than anyone else. I agree with Billy on airing on the side of caution, but I still think the forecaster did the honorable thing and said what he felt on the situation. Sometimes, people just get a hunch, and my hunch is we'll see some maddening weather starting Wed.-Thu. do to the instability present. All that needs to happen to duplicate an event like the two aforementioned events from last year is a strong low to come with the right shear and we have long-lived tornadic supercells.

Making the public aware is what has contributed to less deaths occuring in these more violent tornadoes. It never hurts to be overly concerned, even though it could desensitize the public in the long run. That is another point Billy may be making.

 

[Billy Griffin]

All comments taken. And I understand everyone's desire for this weekend to be a once in 25 year event.

While I do not agree with the forecaster, and I do not appreciate some of the comments fired back and the language, if you want to say I was insulting or criticising the forecaster, so be it. If he nails it, I'm happy. If not, I'm happy. It doesn't matter. I did not mean for it to sound that way. All I see is a "potential", but a lot of things look to make this just an average chase weekend and nothing to evacuate Oklahoma over.

I understand some of you took it that way, but I will not apologize for simply posting my thoughts. However, I never cursed at the man, called him names, etc. on a public webpage or sent threatening private messages. And if that's your way of "wishing" this forecaster were right and that some disastrous event will occur and it makes you feel better by insulting me, I'm happy for you. Hope many of you feel better now!

Regarding the AFD in controversy... Heck, I'd like that too, but I still think we have to use good judgement in our wording before we issue things that folks can read and start putting more into it and I still think you have to wait and see before issuing words like that 3 to 5 days in advance. If I'm wrong, well, that too so be it. But in reading the newest AFD out of OUN... almost sounds like this forecaster is apologetic or emphasizing that although severe weather is possible, there are still MANY factors to work out in the models and even things that may influence a favorable pattern on a mesoscale level...

PATTERN FOR FRI-MON TIME PERIOD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORM
CHANCES SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS. HOWEVER..THERE ARE SEVERAL
CAVEATS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH-END SVR POTENTIAL IN THE OUN CWA.
FIRST.. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY INCREASE.. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THE FARTHER S/E ONE
GOES ACROSS OK/NTEXAS..AND THIS CUD END UP BEING A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION..
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO COME ASHORE NEAR NEW ORLEANS
OVER THE WEEKEND MAY END UP SEVERELY IMPACTING THE QUALITY AND/OR
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OK/NTEXAS DUE TO PERIPHERAL
SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS..AND MAY ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL EFFECTS ON
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. FINALLY..AS IS COMMON FOR THE LATE
SPRING..THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SCALE TSTORM COMPLEX
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SEVERELY COMPLICATE THE SFC PATTERN EACH
NIGHT/MORNING. SINCE THESE FEATURES ARE RARELY FORECASTED WELL BY
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS..OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ON EACH SUCCESSIVE
DAY WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING AREAS OF MAX THREATS.

All in all, Sounds like OUN is back-pedaling, and very wise (and much more professional) in their "more cautious" approach to the AFD as opposed to earlier... that's all I'll say on this.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin
All comments taken. And I understand everyone's desire for this weekend to be a once in 25 year event.

While I do not agree with some of the comments fired back and the language, if you want to say I was insulting or criticising the forecaster, so be it. I did not mean for it to sound that way. I understand some of you took it that way, and I'm sorry, but I will not apologize for simply posting my thoughts.

Uh... er... look, Billy. Here's the thing. The plain language interpretation of your words, including the big blaring topic title you picked out for this thread, suggest that you're criticising both the forecaster and the general quality of recent NWS forecasts. If, indeed, you didn't mean to be taken that way, then your fingers have have apparently declared autonomy from your brain. People are not misinterpreting what you wrote... if anything, you are misinterpreting what you wrote. You don't have to apologize (though it's generally a good idea when you regret having said something wrong and offensive), but it's bordering on an insult to say "I'm sorry you all misunderstood what I wrote" when indeed everyone here understood exactly what you wrote. Just bite the bullet and admit that either you temporarily had a brainfart and forgot how to make your fingers type what you were thinking or that you got a little ahead of yourself and said some things you didn't really mean and that you wish you hadn't said them. Trust me, people will forgive ya, it's just a freakin' weather board for crying out loud.

FYI, I don't think anyone here was offended by your suggestion that forecasters be conservative in their forecasting language (though I'm sure many disagreed with you), I think those that were offended were put off by your demeaning language in regards to both the forecaster in question (whom you don't even know) and NWS forecasts in general (again, SEE THE TOPIC THAT YOU PICKED FOR THIS THREAD), and the overall tone of your posts, which to my eyes came off as a bit on the arrogant side -- especially considering that your counterargument to the AFD in question was not your own detailed forecast discussion. I think if you offered your own detailed forecast discussion, people would've cut you more slack... unless, of course, your forecast didn't verify and Captain Ahab's did.

 

[Joe Nield]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin
While I do not agree with the forecaster, and I do not appreciate some of the comments fired back and the language, if you want to say I was insulting or criticising the forecaster, so be it.

If you just wanted everyone to agree with you, you picked the wrong place to sign up. You have to roll with the punches, buddy. What language? Maybe I missed a post where someone got out of line, but there's no need to take offense because people disagree with you.

Hell, I'm a democrat in Indiana. If anyone knows that, it's me.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Originally posted by Joe Nield+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Joe Nield)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Billy Griffin

While I do not agree with the forecaster, and I do not appreciate some of the comments fired back and the language, if you want to say I was insulting or criticising the forecaster, so be it.

If you just wanted everyone to agree with you, you picked the wrong place to sign up. You have to roll with the punches, buddy. What language? Maybe I missed a post where someone got out of line, but there's no need to take offense because people disagree with you.

Hell, I'm a democrat in Indiana. If anyone knows that, it's me. [/b]

Most play well together here on Stormtrack. I enjoy Joe's insight and knowledge of weather, even though he is a dem and a Colts fan. *nudges Joe* LOL!

Everyone on this board knows that meteorology is not an exact science. If you think otherwise, you have no business here. This site talks about REAL weather, forecasting and chasing. Remember, a majority of the public looks upon us weather folks as 'odd' or 'nerdy' until a storm cloud rolls in...then they want us to read the sky for their fate in life, like tea leaves. Or, be in my position.
My husband talks me up as a 'weather whore', so some people laugh AT me for my love of weather and poke some mean-spirited fun at me in general. When the wind starts to blow or clouds darken, my email and PM light up like Dec 25th, all asking if they are about to be taken off the face of the earth. I give them what I interpret NWS and what little models I understand, in my own words (they know I am not a pro, just a person who loves weather and chasing). When nothing (or little) happens, are they thankful? Noooo, they are mad because nothing happend. I am about as green of a hobbyist forecaster as you can get (far from a degreed pro), but even I get tired of the "weather guessers are the only people who keep their jobs after being wrong most of the time" BS too.

Meteorology is the Rodney Dangerfield (RIP) of careers and hobbys.

The folks at the SPC (like the TPC guys who are in their 'season' now too) work hard to keep the masses safe and those with an ounce of weather savvy informed. Hats off to the job these folks do day in and day out.
Analyzing and dissecting a professional forecast here is expected, attacking a forecaster (one who does this for a living, the degreed professional)....not cool at all.
Last time I checked, a watch meant conditions were ripe (not guaranteed) for severe weather in a boxed area. Forecast discussions are just as has been stated before...one forecaster's take on the dynamics of the atmosphere at one point in time, and projecting their thoughts on where those same dynamics will be in the near future.

My advice to those whom don't like what the pros are anticipating...learn to read the data and forecast for your own bad self.

 

[Scott Olson]

One of the things I like about storm chasing is you have to do your own forecasting and mesoanaylsis in order to be really succesful. The high risk on Saturday actually verified. Since the SPC's job is to help protect the public there are always going to be a bit conservative same with the NWS forecast offices. I saw a beautiful supercell in Nebraska and really enjoyed it.

 

[Alex Lamers]

AFDs were meant for inter-office coordination and to let surrounding offices know what you are thinking. The general public, if you told them about this, would probably immediately say "What is an Area Forecast Discussion"? Most of the general public watches the 10 pm news or the Weather Channel anyways. So basically, the only ones who read them are degreed types and weenies like us.

I think the wording was reflected in the HWO. Remember, not everyone types out an AFD the same (as many people have said). Unless the next forecaster said "THE LAST FORECASTER WAS TOTALLY WRONG", then you can generally assume that the same line of thinking was factored into his forecast.

Bottom line? Its an AFD, and this thread has had a surprising amount of bickering (or debate...whatever floats your boat) over a couple lines in it. Chill out people...what happens happens.

And finally, I think what got a lot of people perturbed (at least me anyways) is the thread title "Forecasting Skill Going Downhill?". ABSOLUTELY not.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[nickgrillo]

Wow, in the past couple days, this thread has really gotten alot of attention!

I agree with the forecaster writing the AFD about this whole weekend, it is supposed to be a bang, still IMO, and if he wanted to go out on a limb by saying what he said, then you gotta have respect for the guy. It's very hard to make a good forecast, and he was in total agreement with the SPC, because they had put a MDT out for their Day 3 outlook. Most of the time, the NWS downplays an event this far in advance, but that forecaster had an educated feeling about it, so he wrote about it, what's wrong with that?

 

[Billy Griffin]

Since I lit the match, I'll try to extinguish it... I thought this would have died by now, and most would be focused more on the next three-four days. I'm anticipating some good stuff starting today through Sunday, as it looks like the "death ridge" is looming once we get into next week.

This horse is not only dead, but it's off to the glue factory. :wink:

Please, Let's move on to the enjoyable stuff... the next 4 days of chasing !!! :wink: