Forecasting Skill going downhill ???

[Mike Johnson]

I have to agree with Billy to a point. I only made it out a few
times this year. The SPC forecasting and risk issuance was below
par. I think the SPC's biggest problem is there is never an accounting
for what happens. I've always thought there should be a "day after"
discussion noting why a watch or risk area busted.

Mike

 

[Jeff Miller]

hmmm

Not to be critical, but I always thought there were policies in place to make case studies out of strongly failed forecasts. I know on April 20, 2004, with the Mini-Sup surprise outbreak there were many case studies presented... I cant even imagine that SPC wouldn't have a meeting with forecasters and senior forecasters and at least a written log of some sort categorizing what the mets were thinking and what actually transpired. I would be VERY surprised if there was not some sort of accountability system in place.... Mike, perhaps you are aware of something I don't know being I have no clue of the bearaucracy [sic] within the Storm Prediction Center.

I have to agree with Billy to a point. I only made it out a few
times this year. The SPC forecasting and risk issuance was below
par. I think the SPC's biggest problem is there is never an accounting
for what happens. I've always thought there should be a \"day after\"
discussion noting why a watch or risk area busted.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Thanks guys, glad for understanding I was only stating my feeling.
Nothing critical was ever meant, only suggest SPC / OUN, etc. etc. use better scrutiny in their wording before creating panic.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Weather Synopsis...A dry line moving east into the central TX panhandle may kick off isolated thunderstorms as it approaches western sections of Oklahoma this evening. Although widespread thunderstorms are not expected, any storms that form will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Severe weather potential will increase each day through the weekend, and there is a possibility of significant and/or widespread severe thunderstorms between Friday and Sunday.

This is the latest OUN public discussion / forecast. Wouldn't you agree this is more on the order than saying something like what was distributed earlier today? Just my 2 cents.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

You know... it's funny. I saw the GFS model run last night and the first thing i thought was tornado outbreak. Large negatively tilted trough.... ample moisture, solid dryline, and strong flow from the sfc up to 300mb. Best looking setup IMHO I have seen this year (if it pans out).

So I see the OUN discussion and it really didn't surprise me. Based off pattern recognition... it does look like great potential exists for some seriously good setups within the next week.


Now a few specific comments/questions I have for the thread author:

how do the rest of you feel on SPC's and Norman's seemingly \"lack of\" ability to forecast this year

It's been a tough year. Anyone can forecast outbreak events... Andover and the events last year were seen days in advance. Have we even had any tornado outbreaks this year?

that HIGH RISK day on Sat... NEVER should have been HIGH... Moderate only. They have the tools for soundings, obs, etc. - I think they're jumping the gun way too much and you know what... THE PUBLIC ARE THE ONES WHO WILL SUFFER.

Only one model I know of forecasted the massive breakout of precip along the dryline (WRF). If we had an ounce bit more of cap... I think you wouldn't be commenting like this. Even with the 18z soundings, I didn't think the storms would be that widespread.

Second of all... it doesn't really matter if SPC goes high/mdt... because outside of chasers, EMs, and mets... few of the public know about the risks. Public do realize when watches bust, however.

I'm only trying to say that perhaps, they should exercise more caution before trying to create a panic. For example, for those of you in OKC area, look at how the media covers weather now.

SPC/NWS aren't going to cause a panic, but I agree with you on the news media.

And please, please, please oh please, don't take this as an insult to those of you who have a much deeper meteorology education and background than I.

Not taking it as an insult.... just responding.

Why does every post always turn into a debate, then the next thing, an argument? Can't we all just love one another> LOL

No... not when we disagree

but I had a feeling it was going to be a big \"cluster\"

*sigh*

but probably still didn't warrant a \"high\" because of the scattered nature.

Uh... do you know what scattered tornadic supercells do? They verify a high risk. Second of all... it is a risk... not a guarenteed thing.

When we have AFDs going out calling for the Rapture, I'm afraid it just creates more panic. I know, here in the office for example, the first thing people did after that discussion was out was to come running down to my office and asking how bad it really was going to be.

This surprises me.... 99% of the people I know not involved with meteorology have no clue what an AFD is or even where their closest NWS office is located. And Oklahomans running from tornadoes? Wow.

All I can say is that \"if\" he was so right... WHY DID THEY TOTALLY CHANGE THE DISCUSSION JUST A FEW HOURS LATER ???

Maybe because someone else wrote it and that the AFD is also open to opinions from the forecaster?

Totally uncalled for this far in advance. Now, come Thursday if things start shaping up, then I'd say mention that in the HWO... alert the public that severe weather is likely over the weekend, and do everything you can to emphasize the importance of that.

That's right lets.. start mentioning a threat for severe weather only a day or two in advance...

I mean, come on, how can you predict or even \"assume\" something like that this far in advance ????

Digging your self into a hole buddy. Many outbreaks are forecasted well in advance quite well because of the general synoptic pattern.
*Note this is not intended as an insult! I simply disagree with many of Billy's points.*

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

From what I gather... the main point Billy was trying to make was that the AFD scared the public. My disagreement is that the majority of the public I know have no clue what is going on... up till a watch box comes out or they hear something on the news the day of or day before. Billy mentioned he works at the postal facility, so it is understandable that many of the carriers would be more in the savvy of the NWS. That said, there should be an awareness that the AFD is simply a look into the forecasters mind and they should be paying more attention to the HWO.

Aaron

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

Weather Synopsis...A dry line moving east into the central TX panhandle may kick off isolated thunderstorms as it approaches western sections of Oklahoma this evening. Although widespread thunderstorms are not expected, any storms that form will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Severe weather potential will increase each day through the weekend, and there is a possibility of significant and/or widespread severe thunderstorms between Friday and Sunday.

This is the latest OUN public discussion / forecast. Wouldn't you agree this is more on the order than saying something like what was distributed earlier today? Just my 2 cents.

And this is the HWO issued earlier:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BUT MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE
TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME TO SAY WHICH DAY AND WHICH PARTS
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AS WELL AS ALL INDIVIDUALS AND AGENCIES WITH
PLANS THAT WOULD BE AFFECTED MOST BY SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS WEEK...AND TO BE PREPARED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Clearly, they're still quite interested in this setup. I mean, look -- I LIKE it when the old hats chime in and give us a heads up. This guy has been doing this for a quarter century. If he sees something coming down the pipe that isn't immediately apparent in the models, by all means, I want to hear about it. If we bitch about this kind of stuff, the forecasters are just going to keep their mouths shut in the public discussion when their spidersense tingles.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Please folks, listen to me... please?

I "AM NOT" in disagreement for the forecaster doing his/her best in trying to get the public/media/chaser/spotter/Emergency Manager, whoever's attention by making a forecast.

THE ONLY THING I WAS CRITICAL OF IS HIM USING THE WORDS, QUOTE: "most potent in over 25 years". That's all I'm saying.

Yeah, 25 yrs only takes us back to '80, sorry my math was never a strong point.

That's all I'm saying... why shouldn't it have read as I posted earlier, or as the forecast on the enhanced web page of OUN says now... basically, "significant severe weather possible."

I not only received phone calls from the TV station I chase for, but also from friends all over Oklahoma who had also read the discussion. I thiink we're assuming no one reads that, but many of the folks I know play around with the internet and navigate through their page.

After reading that, plus the other part of his comment about the "screaming" thing, just (to me) put quite a bit of worry into those that I spoke to. Also, I just watched the evening news and one local forecaster commented "we could see a great deal of devastation over the weekend." Gees... I just think that's awful strong wording and what about these poor folks who may have lost a loved one in recent weather-related disasters? Even though '99 has been six years now, it still bears an ugly scar for the folks in Moore and OKC.

I have a co-worker and close friend who lost his son that day. Since '99, he is terrified of storms and reads ALL discussions. Before all of you keep on bashing me, put yourself in his shoes and ask yourself how you'd feel or what would be on your mind when you read that something even worse than that could occur this weekend ??? Folks, I didn't mention this earlier, but this guy came to me asking what was going to happen, then he broke down later today and was CRYING in remembering that day and losing his son !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How do you think that makes me feel and how do you explain the rationale behind the wording?

I hope this clarifies why I was aggravated initially at the discussion, it's not the fact of the warning. To be honest, the more timely warning, the better. But for the 15th time, all I'm saying is the "WORDING" should (IMO) have been done differently. And now, the local media, at least the station I was watching at six, is going crazy over this.

I deeply apologize for making anyone mad, angry, upset, offended, whatever... and if you want to talk with me, a lot of you are here in Norman and I'd be glad to actually meet you guys.

My intentions were not to come across as putting down the upcoming forecast, or even downplay the potential... it's only the wording and being tactful. And believe it or not folks, a lot of people DO read just about everything on the web. If it's there, someone can read it, and that's exactly what happened today. Even the Kansas City folks picked up on it, and I just talked to a former chase partner living in NYC and even they have read it.

Some of you guys criticise every little thing about a posting. I simply asked for your thoughts. I didn't anticipate your insults or PMs to me. It's like I'm making a comment directly at chasers. Hell, I'm a chaser myself guys and ladies. I hope now you understand why I said what I did and hey, I still stand behind my feelings. If you would have been there and had seen a 44 year old man break down in tears and show me a photo of his 2 year old dead son, you would have lost it too !!!

 

[Mike Hardiman]

All I can say is that \"if\" he was so right... WHY DID THEY TOTALLY CHANGE THE DISCUSSION JUST A FEW HOURS LATER ???

As previous posters have already pointed out, it was likely a different forecaster authoring the later AFD. Depending on current weather and other deadlines, software crashes, etc... the amount of time one has to work on an AFD is highly variable and the content therefore varies as well. The "long term/public" day shift forecaster putting out the the 2:50pm AFD quite likely did not have as much time as the earlier "update" AFD (the so-called "Doomsday AFD") author had or simply chose not to highlight or repeat what was already said. Every forecaster has their own style to writing AFDs. Some put more emphasis in them than others. They can be as short as three sentences... or as long as three pages.

While I'd tend to think that perhaps the wording was a bit much for this far out... I'll digress since the forecaster in question apparently has over 25 years+ experience, and likely has seen and forgotten far more weather than I, a mere "puppy" has ever experienced... clearly this also applies to students and quite likely even some sheltered PhDs out there!

This forecaster apparently sees a pattern evolving that is ringing a well-tuned alarm bell in his own mind, and he chose to highlight this in their AFD and HWO. Assuming that this person is not just prone to crying wolf with every other model run (I simply don't know as I don't follow OUN's AFDs regularly), then I give the forecaster credit for not simply doing the old "wait and see and bump the POPs up another 10%." It's one thing to cry wolf, and another to go out on a limb and possibly add some value to a forecast over what model guidance suggests.

I am desperately trying to bite my tongue on this one. I'll say this though: whether I agree with this forecaster's enhanced wording or not, I hope he absolutely nails the forecast!

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin
Please folks, listen to me... please?

I think that they are -- you're just not listening to them. Your original beef, that forecasting skill is sucking this year and that forecasters are "hypeing things" makes very little sense and a few people have tried to point that out to you. I mean, look -- that's what the forecaster thought. FDs are for the forecaster to lay out their thoughts. If the media wants to work itself up into a froth over it, well, that's their choice.

I \"AM NOT\" in disagreement for the forecaster doing his/her best in trying to get the public/media/chaser/spotter/Emergency Manager, whoever's attention by making a forecast.

THE ONLY THING I WAS CRITICAL OF IS HIM USING THE WORDS, QUOTE: \"most potent in over 25 years\". That's all I'm saying.

Yeah, but why? That's the big question here. The forecaster clearly is trying to get a message out to weather/EMS/media types by mentioning that he has a lot of experience and that in all of his experience, this is the worst he's seen it this far out. It's not like he held a live press conference and hid under the podium while crying, he just gave chasers, EMTs, and media types a heads up that something big -- bigger than he's ever seen -- might be coming down the pipe. What they do with that info is up to them. Of course in Oklahoma, you can't hardly mutter the word "tornado" in a forecast without having a whole newsroom full of people fall to the floor in exctasy.

I not only received phone calls from the TV station I chase for, but also from friends all over Oklahoma who had also read the discussion. I thiink we're assuming no one reads that, but many of the folks I know play around with the internet and navigate through their page.

Yeah, so? Now they're clued in about something big maybe happening this weekend. Doesn't sound too terrible to me. If they do something rash and sell all of their worldy posessions and cower in a bunker expecting the rapture, well, that's hardly the forecaster's fault.

After reading that, plus the other part of his comment about the \"screaming\" thing, just (to me) put quite a bit of worry into those that I spoke to. Also, I just watched the evening news and one local forecaster commented \"we could see a great deal of devastation over the weekend.\" Gees... I just think that's awful strong wording and what about these poor folks who may have lost a loved one in recent weather-related disasters? Even though '99 has been six years now, it still bears an ugly scar for the folks in Moore and OKC.

You make it seem like local television forecasters crawl off the street, comb their hair, listen to the NWS FD, and begin mumbling into the camera. I'm sure that most TV mets in Oklahoma actually do their own forecasts. If they're talking devestation, well, it might be sweeps week, or they might just be seeing the same stuff as Mr. NWS Forecaster. Either way, it's not like there is some rule that TV mets have to regurigitate whatever the HWO or the FD says for the day... they do their own forecasts, and if they blow them, it's on them, not the NWS.

I have a co-worker and close friend who lost his son that day. Since '99, he is terrified of storms and reads ALL discussions. Before all of you keep on bashing me, put yourself in his shoes and ask yourself how you'd feel or what would be on your mind when you read that something even worse than that could occur this weekend ??? Folks, I didn't mention this earlier, but this guy came to me asking what was going to happen, then he broke down later today and was CRYING in remembering that day and losing his son !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You've used up all the available exclaimation points for this thread, but I ask again: how is that the NWS forecaster's fault? I mean, for example, I'm not a big fan of lightning. I have to tackle the fear every time I get out of the car on a chase. That doesn't mean that the SPC should stop drawing the thunder line. If your friend is severe weather phobic, then perhaps Oklahoma isn't the best place for him or her to live. I, for one, however, would like to know if the local Ahab at the NWS smells a white whale.

I hope this clarifies why I was aggravated initially at the discussion, it's not the fact of the warning. To be honest, the more timely warning, the better. But for the 15th time, all I'm saying is the \"WORDING\" should (IMO) have been done differently. And now, the local media, at least the station I was watching at six, is going crazy over this.

The media will do what the media will do. Hell, they go crazy over run-away brides these days. The NWS just keeps cranking out good info. It's not their problem.

I deeply apologize for making anyone mad, angry, upset, offended, whatever... and if you want to talk with me, a lot of you are here in Norman and I'd be glad to actually meet you guys.

Nah, it's cool -- I doubt anyone here is actually upset with you, except for maybe the NWS forecaster who wrote that report, if he ends up reading this thread (and they do visit this site, BTW.) I like how pretty much everyone stays civil on Stormtrack, compared to most of the internet. Noone here is anonymous, and we usually end up meeting each other, sooner or later.

My intentions were not to come across as putting down the upcoming forecast, or even downplay the potential... it's only the wording and being tactful.

Just a heads up then... you might want to change the Topic you picked for this thread. It doesn't exactly convey the message you're indicating above.

Anyhow, though we disagree on this one, I'd still buy ya a beer if I ran into out on the plains. Good luck chasing this weekend, Armageddeon or not. :wink:

 

[Joe Nield]

A forecaster has an obligation and a duty to explain his forecast reasoning in the AFD, and to be honest about what he expects will occur. I'd much rather he truthfully say that clues are telling him there is a significant severe weather potential rather than bite his tongue about it.

 

[George Tincher]

From what I have seen and learned trying to forecast as an amateur, it's tough. Therefore I am not critical of those who know far more than me. But I must say, I admire a forecaster who's willing to go out on a limb from time to time if he/she sees something they think will be big. Sure, it may not always verify. But sometimes forecasts made the day of an event doesn't either.

Either way, if a man of 25 years experience sees something he views as one of the more favorable setups he has seen in 25 years, I'll take him at his word and want to know about it. Afterall, I certainly have far less than 25 years experience. And if he's wrong? Big deal. That's why they do updates. There's plenty of time for revision as we move closer to the event. Outside of people such as other forecasters, chasers, spotters, etc, few people look at those outlooks anyway.

 

[Bryan Burkholder]

I can see your point, Billy. That strong of wording catches people's attention. It has been the first thing mentioned to me today whenever I see someone; if I have read the Norman AFD from this morning. But maybe it is a good thing that it catches people's attention, at least giving them a heads up to pay attention to the weather this weekend.

I agree with Ryan, that I want to hear the opinion of someone with 25 years of experience, not in overused garble, but what he thinks. Though, I do admit, it could be toned down a bit from using such active verbs this far ahead of time. The synoptic pattern does look very good, and hopefully there does not have to be widespread busting chasers on the plains.

The SPC does their job to the best of their ability, and none of us can deny that; and I am happy with the job that they do. Sure, when they bust they get egg on the face, but show me someone in high standing in any field that doesn't get egg on their face for being wrong. This year has been a difficult one to forecast severe weather on the southern plains, and difficult to chase. Some ill-timed cirrus decks and stronger than expected caps, with many days being disjointed in where the best helicity, CAPE, etc. are located. Also, you have online boards full of storm chasers waiting for your outlooks, watches, and discussions. There were quite a few severe weather reports in the high risk area for June 4th, just not the type of reports everyone expected...

As a side note, not everyone who has the opposite opinions that you do is insulting you or criticizing you. I'm sure I will see you around in Norman sometime in the next 2 years or so. If you want to see some really active language and insults, you can refer to the 5/21/05 posts or some of the other threads that became locked early.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Joe Nield
A forecaster has an obligation and a duty to explain his forecast reasoning in the AFD, and to be honest about what he expects will occur. I'd much rather he truthfully say that clues are telling him there is a significant severe weather potential rather than bite his tongue about it.

Dang, I'm once again in agreement with you! Are you sure you're not a republican now? :lol:

Anyway, I agree that the AFD is a compilation of the forecasters opinions - so I'm not understanding why the forecaster should change his opinion simply because a select few people from the public might be scared, or disagree with his thoughts...

 

[Glen Romine]

As was pointed out earlier by Aaron, when you see a negatively tilted trough embedded within a very strong upper level system emerging out onto the Great Plains with tropical surface moisture - you are darn right it will get the attention of forecasters. If in this guy's opinion this is the most impressive model forecast - that's information I'd want to read about because frankly I don't have 25 years of experience watching storm systems. As for your post-event critique of SPC - step up and start posting your forecasts BEFORE events and prove that you really know what your talking about - otherwise please follow the advice posted earlier by Shane in the other thread. While I'm sure training postal workers is tough work -what with Oklahoma having such open gun laws and all - but I doubt your job has even the slightest comparitive level of stress to that of SPC and NWS forecasters. Not only are their careers on the line, so are the lives, business and government operations of millions dependent on their forecasts being as inclusive as possible. They must fail on the side of caution - the worst case scenario. If you don't like that forecast method - you are welcome to stick your hand out the window and wait for winds to pick up to know when to take cover. Several forecasters, both NWS and SPC, browse through here, and I'm sure that don't appreciate someone slamming their forecasts - or even their comments about the basis of their forecasts (AFD). Amazes me how frequently folks seem to think they are "experts" at forecasting events after an event has already occurred.

Glen