I'm gonna continue to pile on here.
Yesterday technically would have verified a high risk for wind (SIG is required in addition to 60% coverage, and there are a small number of sig wind reports within the 60% PP contour). The 60% PP level was also exceeded for hail, but it seems that there is no hail coverage threshold that is adequate to satisfy a high risk according to SPC's standards, so for the time being I'll let them have that.
![Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 11-24-55 HWT SFE - Experimental Outlook Verification.png Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 11-24-55 HWT SFE - Experimental Outlook Verification.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/42/42282-8da05c93eeb878fcc46c432b110d7ebb.jpg)
![hail_current.png hail_current.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/42/42283-db244cc1514800357092523fc2d2c822.jpg)
Without loss of generality (i.e., all of the forecasts maintained the same max category), here is the day 1 convective outlook from yesterday:
![day1otlk_v_20240509_1300.gif day1otlk_v_20240509_1300.gif](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/42/42284-40c325c13be28394b3be212fdd886524.jpg)
The highest category was enhanced - that means this forecast is a two-category underforecast. That also makes arguably (see edit to my previous post) two forecasts this week that missed low. Yet for some reason these two underforecasts aren't making the headlines like the overforecast was.
Yesterday technically would have verified a high risk for wind (SIG is required in addition to 60% coverage, and there are a small number of sig wind reports within the 60% PP contour). The 60% PP level was also exceeded for hail, but it seems that there is no hail coverage threshold that is adequate to satisfy a high risk according to SPC's standards, so for the time being I'll let them have that.
![Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 11-24-55 HWT SFE - Experimental Outlook Verification.png Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 11-24-55 HWT SFE - Experimental Outlook Verification.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/42/42282-8da05c93eeb878fcc46c432b110d7ebb.jpg)
![hail_current.png hail_current.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/42/42283-db244cc1514800357092523fc2d2c822.jpg)
Without loss of generality (i.e., all of the forecasts maintained the same max category), here is the day 1 convective outlook from yesterday:
![day1otlk_v_20240509_1300.gif day1otlk_v_20240509_1300.gif](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/42/42284-40c325c13be28394b3be212fdd886524.jpg)
The highest category was enhanced - that means this forecast is a two-category underforecast. That also makes arguably (see edit to my previous post) two forecasts this week that missed low. Yet for some reason these two underforecasts aren't making the headlines like the overforecast was.
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