Feeler of interest - Chase planning consultation?

[Fred Gossage]

Hey Guys,

Seeing Tim have to cancel his basic level Chase Hotline service last year saddened me, even though I do little chasing (mainly an in-the-office guy with severe weather). After thinking about it through the winter, I've decided to see if there may be any interest in a rather low-priced chase consultation plan.

The idea would go like this... Any member signing up for the service would get access to daily updated forecast information for the Day 1 time frame for helping decide on an initial target, all the way out to two week long-range/teleconnection guidance to try to nail down active periods for an early head's up on planning chase trips. This would be done via a blog with running commentary and maps and also a daily updated video discussion that will break down all the maps and such. The user would also have access to a "tool box" page that would contain links to a WIDE variety of weather data on the internet. It wouldn't be anything that can't already be found, for the most part, but it would be a page with comprehensive links for radar, satellite, surface charts, upper air charts, soundings and hodographs, profilers, a multitude of model pages (including privately-run but publically available high resolution WRF runs across the country), model ensemble data, text products, etc. This would also include a Storm Watcher AllisonHouse account (This includes ALL AllisonHouse placefile feeds for Gibson Ridge/StormLab but does NOT include a Level 3 or Level 2 LDM radar feed) for the months of March through June. The pricing for this would be a one-time fee of $140 for the entire season, through the end of June; and only $10 extra to extend the service through the end of July. This is less than $2.00/day to have access to very detailed forecast thoughts, a comprehensive forecaster toolbox, and a data feed for add-on data for your on-board radar programs. If you choose not to have the AllisonHouse subscription, the pricing is $100 for March through the end of June, with a $10 extra to extend the service through the end of July.

For those of you that don't know me or my forecasting abilities well enough to be able to make a decision on choosing to take advantage of this service or not, you may contact the following people:

WAFF Huntsville Chief Meteorologist Brad Travis
WBRC Birmingham Chief Meteorologist James-Paul Dice
WBRC Birmingham Meteorologist Jason Kelley

The links above are to their TV station bio pages where you will find their email addresses.

I am needing at least 15-20 people interested in a service like this before it's worth my time enough to get it off the ground. I'm not trying to make a killing off this by any stretch of the imagination, but I do need to be able to cover software, data service feed, etc., costs in order to provide the service. My goal here is to offer an affordable resource to chasers and others in the weather hobbyist community, since the previous one was discontinued. Please do not be misled into thinking that this is a nowcasting service. This is a forecasting consultation service that will give you information to help plan your chase trips from up to and past two weeks out, down to giving you info to help pick your target the morning of the big day.

If you think you may be interested in such a service, please respond back to this post as soon as reasonably possible, or email me using the address below:

I would like to have this service up and running by March 10th. I look forward to hearing from you guys!

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Fred,

I think this is a great idea and I'm interested in signing up. Everyone is certainly different, but here's where this service would be beneficial to me:

I'm a newbie that has only been chasing for two years, but I am head over heels in love with learning how to forecast. I'm intrigued by severe weather and how it forms. I've been glued to several of Tim Vasquez's books and have thoroughly enjoyed the NSSC for the last two years. At any rate, subscribing to a service (such as the one your proposing) could be an excellent learning tool as I strive to learn and understand how to forecast. It's a great way to bounce my own conclusions against someone with a lot more experience.

I'm bringing this up in case there are other newbies out there that are shy to sign up for a service like this. With the correct approach (by the user), it could be a valuable learning tool at an excellent price.

If you get enough folks, count me in.

Bryan

 

[Andrew Herron]

I'd be interested for the days that I do go out and chase, but being in Michigan, and liking to stay in the state, my opportunities are far fewer than warrants paying a full price for something like this. Even with my ChaserTV subscription, it's hard to bite $40 for something I used twice (at least for actual chases, I did use it for snow storms).

I know it's all about making it worth your time, or whoever provides such services, but it'd be nice to have this sort of thing available. I mean, otherwise, I have to rely on the likes of Holcomb.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Like others are suggesting, I think it might be more appealing to potentials customers if you had a daily or weekly option. I think some would be willing to spend a few dollars for just one day of forecasting/nowcasting, especially those who make marathon runs out to the Plains for a single chase and want to maximize their chances on the bigger setups of the year. Those who are spending their week's worth of vacation time on the Plains might be more interested in the weekly option.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Part of the analysis that would ideally be offered would be the longer range stuff evolving teleconnections and such, to flag certain time periods where the large scale pattern favors chase-favorable action... so that there is guidance for asking for vacation days and such. Something that's not really out there... That kind of thing can't reasonably be offered on a by-day or by-week plan, and it's something that would have to be included in the package daily... because separating the work and creating an additional discussion video or a separate discussion would be extra work, and wouldn't be worth the extra work and time without charging more money. It's also not possible to break the AllisonHouse data feeds into anything less than a monthly subscription, and that was to be a big selling point of the whole idea. I'm fine with there not being enough interest to get this off the ground, but I can't reasonably or realistically break this up into daily or weekly packages, given what is offered. It's also far and away not worth doing it if 15-20 people ARE interested, but for only a week or so out of the year. I wouldn't come close to covering the data subscriptions and such in order to access some of the not-so-public weather info out there used to do some of the longer range forecasting.

Thanks to all that have been interested, and have offered feedback.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Without people committing for the entire season, I could see where breaking even on costs would be a sketchy proposition at best.

Bryan

 

[Fred Gossage]

With enough free sources of data, I can handle this without making a seasonal rate mandatory. The two above packages still stand, but for those that can't afford a seasonal rate, I will offer a monthly package (not including any AllisonHouse data) for $25 per month. If you would be interested in any of the three packages, please contact me via the methods described in the original post.

Thank you.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I also want to extremely strongly emphasize that this is NOT nowcasting. This is a forecasting service that gives you daily forecasting analysis for the morning of decisions... and then planning info for Day 2 and beyond into long range pattern recognition. My schedule is such that I CAN nowcast for folks, and it CAN be on a daily rate, but at a much more significant price, because like Tim Vasquez's service, you are basically paying to make sure that my schedule is available to you. If you are interested in daily/weekly nowcasting, please contact me privately at the email address above to find out more information.

 

[Fred Gossage]

After some thinking and some math, I'm going to offer straight-up, play-by-play nowcasting to people at a rate of $30 dollars a day also. That may seem like a little chunk of change, but you're paying to seal my schedule so that I can work for you and keep you safe when you don't have a net connection and help you get to your target, with my almost 16 years of convective forecasting experience. This is 1/3 of the price that our good friend Tim Vasquez charges, because I am using other sources for data, I have other sources of $$$ to help cover things, and my schedule is already very flexible anyway. Contact me for more info if you may be interested.

 

[Adam Penney]

In the past, I have been interetested in the service that Tim Vasquez was offering, but in the end, it was just too expenisve for what I could give.

This looks like a more affordable option, and I will surely look into it.

 

[Jim Hunt]

Fred, are you going to limit the target area? I know Tim didn't cover Indiana which is where I am located and would like to possibly use the service.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Fred, are you going to limit the target area? I know Tim didn't cover Indiana which is where I am located and would like to possibly use the service.

As long as you don't travel outside the CONUS to chase, you will be covered.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Fred,

I think it's great that you're opening this up to monthly subscriptions. Hopefully it will generate more interest.

Bryan