FCST TS Phillipe was TD17

[Stuart Robinson]

FCST TD17 was invest 95L

Date omitted due to ongoing forecast.

TD17 has now formed out of invest 95L. Models suggest that this will be a hurricane (some suggest a major). The low latitude suggests that TD17 *may* enter the GOM.

 

[HAltschule]

Stuart, thanks for pointing out TD 17 this morning. Interesting activity in the tropics indeed. I looked at about 8 models this morning and they are unanymous in bringing newly formed TD 17 out into the open Atlantic well away from land (as a major hurricane). I would be surprised if the storm deviated from this track given the excellent agreement among all of the models.

What's also interesting is the blob of convection currently near the Turks and Caicos Islands that is forecast to strengthen and move Westward, possibly clipping Key West, FL and into the Texas/Northern Mexico coastline. This system does not have advisories for it yet.

 

[Mark Farnik]

TD 17 will likely become Tropical Storm Phillipe when the 11 P.M. advisory is issued. He looks to be organizing quite nicely and I agree with the NHC forecast of Phillipe near or at major hurricane strength at 120 hours, with little or no shear ahead of him and 30 degree Celsius SST's ahead...
Phillipe could do one of three things: track straight northwest, clip or pass over the northeastern Lesser Antilles, and make a beeline for the southeast coast of the U.S. sometime next weekend/early next week; track slightly north of northwest and pass harmlessly between Bermuda and North Carolina, with a potential landfall on the upper Atlantic Seaboard/New England if no troughs or fronts shoo him away from the coast; or a northwest track to near the lesser Antilles and then a northerly turn, straight towards Bermuda, a la Fabian, the Cat 3 that devasted that island on September 5, 2003 (the current NHC track seems to favor this solution at the present time). Any way you look at it, Phillipe is a storm that will need to be watched very carefully. :shock:

In regards to the convection north of Hispaniola, I believe it will become T.D. 18, then Tropical Storm Rita, in the next 36-48 hours. I am concerned about the future of this system since it looks to be originating from the same area Katrina did, and some of the models take it on a similar course through the Bahamas with a possible south Florida landfall early to mid-week. Hopefully this system will keep a more westward course and stay away from the central Gulf Coast, as the last thing they need is another tropical system bearing down on them, no matter what intensity.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

More news than a forecast... But we now have TS Phillipe out of TD17 - this will be confirmed in the next NHC update.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Mark Farnik
Phillipe could do one of three things: track straight northwest, clip or pass over the northeastern Lesser Antilles, and make a beeline for the southeast coast of the U.S. sometime next weekend/early next week; track slightly north of northwest and pass harmlessly between Bermuda and North Carolina, with a potential landfall on the upper Atlantic Seaboard/New England if no troughs or fronts shoo him away from the coast; or a northwest track to near the lesser Antilles and then a northerly turn, straight towards Bermuda, a la Fabian, the Cat 3 that devasted that island on September 5, 2003 (the current NHC track seems to favor this solution at the present time).

With the 00z model runs, this scenario is looking increasingly plausible; the Canadian, NOGAPS and UKMET all bring Philippe very near Bermuda in 5-6 days. It is notable that the 00z CMC B-O-M-B-S this system out and shows it as a very intense cyclone not far from Bermuda in 6 days.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, it appears that the bombing out may be occurring. Latest VORTEX message noted "frequent lightning" (and moderate turbulence) , which usually signals rapid intensification. 988mb pressure and 60kt max FL winds. Latest models continue with past guidance in bringing the storm north-northwestward for the next couple of days. Current satellite shows continued very cold cloud tops (and a very nice dvorak IR image), which the storm's had since morning. Outflow looks a little restricted to the west, but pretty good elsewhere. With warm SSTs and not much in the way of shear, this thing could be a hurricane by mid-morning. There isn't much in the way of dry air nearby (with limited areas of dry air to the west and se of the storm)... This could be a doozy for Bermuda, but we're quite some time from that...

 

[Jason Toft]

I don't know about ya'll, but Phillipe is looking pretty bad to me. Lots of the clouds/convection is off to the east of the storm, but it the last 2-3 frames of the satellite loop, there is a circular area of deep convection going up. Could it be strengthening? Probably.

And that's all I have to say about that. It'll likely not be a threat to land.

Jason