Karen Politte
EF5
I didn't want to post this in Target Area as it lacks a solidified forecast date - but I do believe the overall pattern of things is something we should be watching within the 7+ days timeframe. This can also go on from Rocky's thread in here, too......as a sort of add-on......and hopefully a little bit more optimistic!
I'll say up front right now that I am no expert model analyser - and as such I take a very simple look at things that are any more than 4 or so days out - but now is the time to start speculation with a hint of factual data.
I've just been star-gazing at the GFS - that's all, really. But it DOES show somewhat of a progressive pattern, I think you call it, with what looks strongly to me like a split-flow regime persisting probably into early April. From a look at the most recent 17 Mar 12Z GFS runs, it shows the southern branch of the jet stream becoming fairly active, with many disturbances, waves and kinks moving along it. This timeframe really livens up, it would appear, by the beginning/middle of next week.
In earlier runs, the GFS was showing a few shots at SW flow aloft, but the surface was still pretty screwy with southerly winds at the surface - but the fetch for moisture was out into the Gulf and BACK on shore around Louisiana!
Well - now, looking out to the 0Z Friday 25 Mar timeframe, I'm becoming a little more optimistic for at least a shot at the beginning of chasing, and perhaps some not-too-modified Gulf air. I think a large problem is that, as each disturbance crosses the area, it ploughs a front down through the Gulf way too far than I'd like to see.
But - it's only March.
Also - anybody care to speculate on what looks like a NICE wave poised on the west coast around the 0Z Fri Mar 25th time??
KR
I'll say up front right now that I am no expert model analyser - and as such I take a very simple look at things that are any more than 4 or so days out - but now is the time to start speculation with a hint of factual data.
I've just been star-gazing at the GFS - that's all, really. But it DOES show somewhat of a progressive pattern, I think you call it, with what looks strongly to me like a split-flow regime persisting probably into early April. From a look at the most recent 17 Mar 12Z GFS runs, it shows the southern branch of the jet stream becoming fairly active, with many disturbances, waves and kinks moving along it. This timeframe really livens up, it would appear, by the beginning/middle of next week.
In earlier runs, the GFS was showing a few shots at SW flow aloft, but the surface was still pretty screwy with southerly winds at the surface - but the fetch for moisture was out into the Gulf and BACK on shore around Louisiana!
Well - now, looking out to the 0Z Friday 25 Mar timeframe, I'm becoming a little more optimistic for at least a shot at the beginning of chasing, and perhaps some not-too-modified Gulf air. I think a large problem is that, as each disturbance crosses the area, it ploughs a front down through the Gulf way too far than I'd like to see.
But - it's only March.
Also - anybody care to speculate on what looks like a NICE wave poised on the west coast around the 0Z Fri Mar 25th time??
KR