Expiration Date of Tornado Awareness

[Steve Holmes]

Judging from tonight's NWS spotter session in Joplin, MO, a lot of people have let their guard down. Only about 60 people showed up. I bet at least half of them already knew the presentation by heart. The city's Emergency Manager said the interest started to go down after about three years. Someone in his business said he wished the area had gotten a tornado Monday night. Not a damaging one. Just enough of a stir to get people's attention. He said the ingredients were there, but the cap held, and New Orleans got hit instead.

There were no Tornado Warnings for Joplin last year. Not even a Watch. That's not really a good thing. We need a "booster shot" every year or two, a daytime tornado, out away from people, wrecking an abandoned barn and throwing pieces into the sky. Something photogenic, captured on dozens of cellphone cameras and posted on Facebook. Something to remind us it can still happen.

Those of you in other towns hit by monsters in the past few years. What are you seeing?

 

[rdale]

The presentation should be fairly new every year - how would they know it by heart already?

I have a hard time buying this "we need a tornado to remind people about tornadoes" thread I see. People did a very good job in Joplin, but were hindered by problems with the NWS and the emergency management agency. Just using the unofficial verification rates in the IEM Cow from the last two years, the WFO is still issuing far too many warnings (~75% false alarm rate.) Compared to Birmingham Alabama with a 50% FAR seems quite dramatic.

On the other hand the county EM is using some best practices for alerting the sirens so that's a plus.

 

[Steve Holmes]

I misspoke. The packaging was different. The information was the same. The guy in front of me was answering the questions almost before they were asked. He was part of a group of four. I imagine they were all spotters. There was a group of about ten ham-radio folks down front. They probably know the stuff already. Very few first-time attendees. That's the point. Some survivors will carry the emotional scars from the 2011 tornado to their grave, but with no tornadoes warnings or watches over the past year, there's a concern that the town as a whole has lost its edge. A tornado to remind people of tornadoes would be a risky prescription, but had all hell short of a tornado broken loose the night before, it would have been a wakeup call.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

As a resident of Joplin myself, I'm not quite sure I understand. I use to attend the spotter classes every year for 13 years, admittedly though it has been a few years since I last went to one but I can't imagine much has changed. When I use to go, the turnout for the Skywarn classes in this area was never great to begin with. But back when I use to go, they actually did 2 classes; one in the afternoon and then one in the evening. The one in the afternoon was mostly attended by first responders, while the one in the evening was more for the public. So this could attribute to why the turnout was lower in the evening classes when I use to go, I don't know.

I don't know how the EM or anyone would come to the conclusion that Joplin needs another tornado because people no longer takes warnings seriously, how does one even come to that conclusion? They can't base it simply off the turnout of the spotter class, like I said the turnout was never that great to begin with, I'm sure though after the tornado there was an increase in the number of people who attended in following years.

This whole thing just sounds very strange to me, IMO.

 

[Steve Holmes]

Hi, Joey. If they had an afternoon session, it was not publicized on the NWS website. Maybe I misunderstood what he said about needing another tornado. Be careful what you wish for, and all of that. If one could dial up a an EF0, set it down in a pasture far from the city and let it knock down a couple of barns, it would get people's attention. Seeing as we don't have that ability and control, wishing for a tornado might not be such a good idea. But something happening to shake people out of their complacency would be a good idea. In March 2012, one of the local TV meteorologists did a "weather tour." About a thousand people showed up in Parsons to hear him. That's rock-star treatment for a local broadcast met. I don't think the station even does the tour anymore. Maybe that's an unfair comparison, the TV guy with the NWS seminar. What I'm trying to say (clumsily perhaps) is that the EM guy is concerned the city has let its guard down. Whether he's drawing on information other than the seminar turnout, I don't know. I am curious as to whether this is happening, and the extent to which it's happening, in El Reno, Tuscaloosa and other places hit in recent years.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I’m just confused as to where this information is coming from that people are being more complacency about tornadoes today than they were 5, 10 years ago? What study was done to form this conclusion? I also find it very disturbing that anyone would suggest that Joplin needs to be hit by another tornado to get people’s attention, especially if this was said by an official with the Emergency Management. I think people in this area has always been more complacency about tornadoes simply because this area doesn’t see the huge tornadoes that you see in Central Oklahoma every year. With the exception of a few big ones in the Four-State area over the years, most tornadoes that drops around here are weak and happens over open fields as opposed to hitting populated cities.

You also can’t forget the fact how many times SGF issues tornado warnings, yet nothing comes from it. It's like the pig who cried wolf, issue tornado warning after tornado warning all year long and nothing happens, people will ignore those warnings. In my opinion we don’t need a tornado to hit to get people’s attention, we need to fix the system so that we aren’t under a tornado warning for every wind storm that rolls through and nothing happens. Until then, people, for the most part, will ignore tornado warnings. This is nothing new, has always been this way.

 

[Steve Holmes]

I apologize. I probably misunderstood the EM about wanting a tornado. I'll take the blame for a miscommunication. He was disappointed, though, that the weather didn't cause some kind of stir Monday night, and was worried about complacency (but then, part of an EM's job is to worry). He said attendance started dropping off after the third year.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I apologize as well, because I’ll be upfront and just simply say that I don’t believe that at all. You may have misheard, perhaps something was said you took it the wrong way and misunderstood. Keith Stammer is the Emergency Management Director, someone whom I am VERY familiar with and have known for years. I will say this, he would never publicly announce that he was disappointed that Joplin wasn't hit by severe weather, especially given the fact that just a few years ago Joplin was took a direct hit by a very large tornado. For him to say that would be very stupid and would upset many people who were directly affected by the tornado. Keith wouldn't do that.

And again, complacency is nothing new when it comes to tornado warnings in this area, it’s been this way for as long as I can remember. And a turnout of 60 people at a spotter class, I really don't see why there is a concern. Like I said in my earlier post, I use to go every year and the number of people who attended was far far less than that.

I'm not meaning to sound like an ass here, but I know the EM and I also know several of the folks at SGF, and one thing I know is neither are going to publicly announce that they were upset that severe weather didn't happen. Makes no sense.

 

[Steve Holmes]

You're reading what you want to read. The original post says, "Someone in his business." I didn't say it was Keith. I didn't say it was publicly announced, either. That's why I didn't identify the person. .

Read the most recent post. "He was disappointed, though, that the weather didn't cause some kind of stir*" Does that say he was disappointed the weather did not actually happen? A Severe Thunderstorm Warning, and a few strong wind gusts, would have done the trick of reminding people about bad WX. Judging from the guy I talked to, people need reminding.

And I share your admiration for Keith. He's done nothing but good for us. I've known him for a couple of years. Not as well as you do, I suppose, but we are not strangers. I am glad he is watching over us.

I apologize for this whole damn thread. I should not have posted when I was so emotional. Like you, I suppose, I know a lot of people affected by 5/22. It starts in my own family. So to hear that people are not taking the threat as seriously as they once did frankly scares the hell out of me.

I'm through defending myself. I made mistakes. I apologized. I am outta here.