I too posted back in 2010 when this thread originally appeared, but my worst bust of all-time happened since so why not pour a little more salt in the wound....
November 7, 2011
I nailed the forecast: Fredrick. However, for some reason I missed a few exits along the way, and decided to just keep going until the next one. This eventually put us in Altus instead of my original target. If we'd gone straight to Fredrick, we'd have nailed the F4 from initiation (like only two chasers I know of did). As it was, we sat in Altus, north of the Fredrick storm as it developed. Closer to us other junky stuff was ongoing between us and the Fredrick storm, so we really couldn't see it. Then another storm west of us near Hollis went tornado-warned. It was all alone, well away from the mess just south of us. I decided to make a play for the Hollis storm, because it was in clear air and we had a direct approach with visuals all the way. We broke west and then north to meet the Hollis storm, just as the storm to our south (buried in other messy storms between it and us) went tornado-warned. I knew at that moment the next choice I made would define the day; I hesitated for about a mile, then decided it made more sense to keep driving towards the storm we could see instead of turning around and driving blindly into a rainy core of a storm we couldn't. That sealed our fate.
The storm we went after looked good for a while, but never produced a tornado, while eventually morphing into a photog's dream. Meanwhile, the storm west of Fredrick began going insane, and we were perfectly-positioned to miss it all, 10-20 miles northwest. I tried to go back and salvage what we could, but anyone who's been in the game long enough knows that backside, NW flank intecept almost always ends in futility and frustration...and today was no exception. Hearing live play by play of multiple tornadoes from a storm we could see (but not see underneath) was excruciating. Towards the end, Bridget caught a brief glimpse of a tornado near the Mountains north of Snyder (while I missed it due to driving) but that was it. I was so furious and devastated, especially when I got a call from Mickey Ptak, who automatically assumed we'd scored like everyone else, saying "Man wasn't today insane??!!" It was the biggest lump I've ever had in my throat to have to tell him "We missed everything." He didn't believe me. Then I had to say it again and tell him I wasn't kidding. Worst moment in my chasing career.
Fall tornadoes are a different kind of delicious, and for this chaser, far more rare than their typical Spring cousins. Nailing the forecast and then botching the chase (complete opposite of my natural skill set) just added hot sauce on top of the salt in the wound. 2011 had been a devastating year for us both chasing-wise and personally, and to have wasted a golden opportunity to right that ship, re-energize us as chasers, and grasp that oh-so-fleeting happiness that only tornadic bliss can forge...that was as bad as it gets. From that moment on, I changed my chasing philosophy: When I pick a target town at home before we leave, we don't stop, we don't deviate, until we get there.