Being a quiet and mostly unknown chaser, I try to keep out of the Great Debates, but this one has gone too far...time for me to jump in the fray.
Some of the initial posts from the "I stayed home" crowd came across rather acidic and high-and-mighty, whether or not that was the intent. However, some of those who chose to go out replied with posts that only inflamed the situation. I think its time we all took a deep breath backed away from this. Guess what -- at this point, both sides are wrong.
Guess what else? We all suck at forecasting, some to a lesser degree than others. When it comes right down to it, not one person on this board can offer anything more than an educated guess. Think about all of the different reasons people have for chasing...it is unreasonable to think that different methods of forecasting don't exist too. Some people start forecasting by targeting model bullsyes. I did that too, and to some extent, I still do. If that's what works, fine.
There's nothing wrong with critiquing another's forecast. In fact, it is a great idea. How else are we to learn? Criticism without instruction, however, is just plain rude. If anyone has a problem with the lack of skill expressed in forecasts, then make your own, offering your own knowledge and experience to teach others. By the same token, if all you do is look where the CAPE and helicity bullseyes are, make an honest attempt to learn. You'll only be helping yourself.
Why is it that the longest threads are the ones where everyone is at each other's throats? We should all be ashamed of ourselves.
Ben