Originally posted by Kiel Ortega
...Further, I don't put a lot of my forecasts up here for the very reasons of why this thread suddenly got bad: emotional outbursts and very little reason.
I know Jeff has asked folks to drop the subject, but as someone who does occasionally make forecasts (mine for this event was very preliminary, but hit on the issues at hand) in TA I'd like to add my opinion to the mix.
Kiel,
I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon and agree that your comments were out-of-line, in that you paraded in and essentially told everyone that they should have known better - when you yourself didn't have the courage and confidence to POST that feeling yourself that morning. Hindsight makes it real easy to say how you "knew" this day was going to be a bust all along (and I saw that you were
not alone in patting yourself on the back for staying home) - but things always look very different beforehand. If you want to critique the decisions of others in their forecasts - doing so by actively participating in forecast discussions and tactfully pointing out potential barriers to an event will earn you respect instead of the lambasting you are getting here. You specifically prided yourself with being on the Ulysses KS tornado earlier this year - had you posted beforehand this as your target and that you knew the event would be after dark and that was still ok - then I'd be impressed - even more so if you could
consistently do so - but since you didn't, there is any number of possible reasons that you happened to end up there, and it may have had more to do with chance than true forecasting skill. So, if you want to talk s*** about other people's forecasts and decisions - you should join into the discussion beforehand instead of telling everyone how stupid they were after-the-fact. It carries no credence.
As for the backdrop of your post topic - was the day over-sensationalized, in fact are many chase days that way? I would agree with you and Kevin that yes, it happens, and fairly often. Optimism is a very personal drive though - so what it takes to get you excited about a day's potential is very different from that of someone else. But, there were several POST event comments in particular that eluded to how great the day would have been had the cap not been so strong - and when you consider the time, money and effort that goes into getting out for some chases, then you probably at least want to believe this was true for your own mental health after a disapointing conclusion. You admit that you have clear-sky busted many times, what were the thoughts going through your head at the time? Do you say to yourself "this day was an obvious bust all along"? Clearly not or you wouldn't have been out there in the first place. Experience isn't something you gain quickly - many folks will remember this event, and like your busts helped you forecast better, this will help them as well. Most events are not "synoptically evident", and most serious chasers will go out on events that are far from ideal. If you don't, too bad, because your missing a lot of spectacular storms. It is a matter of POD vs. FAR - and many chasers choose the former.
Is there too much hype put into model forecasts several days out? Seemingly yes, but generally by a select and repeating crowd - and it is easy to filter/ignore certain posts once you pay attention to who typically posts what. But, you have to keep in mind that not everyone lives close enough to the plains to be able to rely on observations to make their final chase decision. Some people have to decide even days in advance - and once you are commited - you have to try and make the most with whatever you have. Use of model forecast parameters (such as STP) to make chase forecast decisions will eventually weed these chasers out - so why worry about them?
Is there a tendency for some chasers to get overly worked up for a day that holds seemingly slim potential? Clearly this is a matter of entirely
personal opinion - you can mudsling and say how you should have noted this or that, but do you REALLY know beforehand what is going to transpire? Yes, the situation looked bleak morning of - but there are a number of days where marginal to even poor conditions still supported phenomenal storms owing to smaller scale factors (such as a favorable storm interaction, like the Mulvane storm of last year which would likely have been far less memorable were it not for the outflow boundary laid out by the leading convection) that are often close to impossible to anticipate. Hard core chasers will often give the atmosphere a chance in favor of a clear-sky bust instead of an overforced event. Since deep convection never became established on this day ( and there are any number of possible ways that it could have) - we will never really know how great or crappy it would have been.
Glen
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