Comments on a bust

[Shane Adams]

LOL, why are we already talking about June? We talked about May with starry eyes for two months and look what that got us. Lesson? Deal with crap as it comes and only wish for better things down the line. Counting on any month seems futile this year.

 

[Darin Brunin]

Hey, this is just my chase philosophy, your mileage may vary, but it had made my life easy-going, even in down years like 2005.

To each his own. Yesterday was a 50/50 day and it just happened to not work out in our favor. That's why SPC had a slight risk because they knew that if storms did fire they were going to be discrete and there wasn't going to be a widespread outbreak. Anyone with any forecasting experience could have pointed that out. But it's May and if given the slighest opportunity I will be out. Heck why bother chasing and spending a little money when you can just sit at home and re-live the events when chaser highlights videos come out. Because that seems like a better option for you and your money will be worth it because you are sure to see tornadoes.

There are two pains in life: 1) The pain of hard work 2) The pain of regret. You may think that you're high up on a pedestal right now because you chose not to chase but when the same "50/50" opportunity arises again and a couple of beautiful beautiful discrete storms fire you will be eating your words and experiencing the pain of regret. Because I can assure you that your pain of regret will be worse than the pain people were experiencing while getting a tan at 7:00p.m. in Nebraska yesterday.

Also, 2005 hasn't been a down year. It's been an average year SO FAR and it's starting to hit people hard that not every year is not going to be like 2003 and 2004. That's why there's an overall depressed mood in the chase community that I can feel right now.

 

[Dick McGowan]

*hearing song* Kick em when they're up, Kick em when they're down.......

 

[Craig Maire II]

Yesterday

Anyone remember May 11th 2000, Iowa? Extreme instability and decent wind shear were present this day but so was a VERY strong cap. SPC had my area only on the edge of a slight risk and it really looked like nothing was going to happen and then at around 6pm WHAMMMM! The cap broke and we had a number of tornados roll through my county, including a strong F3 tornado. My philosophy is -hit happens. I met alot of awsome people yesterday, saw a beautiful sunset, and got back home by around 11:30pm last night intime for McDonalds and videos so all in all yesterday could have been better but it could have been worse. What bothered me the most yesterday was when I got home and sank my starving teeth into that unhealthy but AWSOME tasting McDonalds food that in my hurry I had a french frie stab me in the roof of my mouth causing much pain and profanity :!: . :lol:

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Re: Yesterday

Anyone remember May 11th 2000, Iowa? Extreme instability and decent wind shear were present this day but so was a VERY strong cap.

True, but yesterday the instability and shear were both pretty marginal, so it's not a very good example. Which leads us to...

To each his own. Yesterday was a 50/50 day and it just happened to not work out in our favor. That's why SPC had a slight risk because they knew that if storms did fire they were going to be discrete and there wasn't going to be a widespread outbreak. Anyone with any forecasting experience could have pointed that out. But it's May and if given the slighest opportunity I will be out. Heck why bother chasing and spending a little money when you can just sit at home and re-live the events when chaser highlights videos come out. Because that seems like a better option for you and your money will be worth it because you are sure to see tornadoes.

There are two pains in life: 1) The pain of hard work 2) The pain of regret. You may think that you're high up on a pedestal right now because you chose not to chase but when the same "50/50" opportunity arises again and a couple of beautiful beautiful discrete storms fire you will be eating your words and experiencing the pain of regret. Because I can assure you that your pain of regret will be worse than the pain people were experiencing while getting a tan at 7:00p.m. in Nebraska yesterday.

Your first sentences about the forecast mirror what I've been saying all along. If "anyone with forecast experience" could have pointed things out early yesterday, they certainly did NOT do so on this board, in fact as you can see many are still under the delusion that yesterday was a perfect/dream setup only ruined by the cap. And, as I've also stated over and over again, I have chased some pretty marginal setups in the last decade when the opportunity arose, and a few times I've been rewarded but busted far more often, so please save your lecturing for someone else. For the umpteenth time, my argument is with the people who were blowing yesterday's risk out of proportion before the fact and after the fact, not with those who chose to give it a try.

Also, 2005 hasn't been a down year. It's been an average year SO FAR and it's starting to hit people hard that not every year is not going to be like 2003 and 2004. That's why there's an overall depressed mood in the chase community that I can feel right now.

Well, this is my tenth season chasing and I'd say that, so far at least, it's somewhere around #8 when considering the overall opportunities. That doesn't mean it can't be #1 in a few weeks. I think you do have a good point, though. A few people who spent time/money on chase vacations are becoming increasingly agitated and are clearly on an emotional roller coaster with each new model bullseye. Such drama is not for me.

Since I'm effectively saying the same thing over and over again, and emotional people are putting words in my mouth, I'll spell it out one more time before taking my leave:

1) I'm not criticizing, second-guessing, or making fun of anyone who chose to chase yesterday. I don't think Kiel was either. Like I've said about 20 times, if I was on my chase vacation I probably would have been there too.

2) It's difficult to make a forecast when the capping inversion is the biggest question of the day, particularly when you have to make a decision early because you are a long distance from the target. Since I live in Norman my decision point was ~8:30am, and it wasn't obvious I made the right call.

3) Everyone has a different threshold of deciding when to chase on questionable days. Some people may decide to drive 1000 miles for the slightest of chances, while others may only wait for the obvious "big" days. I'll try not to make fun of the desperate guy who drives to Colorado on Christmas Day for the .000000001% chance of seeing a tornado (after all, if you don't play...).

4) I've honed in on this chase philosophy over my 10 years chasing, and my success rate is now ~1/5. Yes I'll miss a few good tornadoes this way (like the one near South Plains, TX a week ago) but it's not a big deal to me because chasing is not all there is to my life. It's just a personal decision and it's doing well enough for me to be happy and enjoy the hobby.

5) There were signs of trouble with yesterday's setup prior to 12Z, and especially after 18Z, and IT WAS NOT JUST THE CAP, but also high dewpoint depressions and messy shear profiles. Pretending the day was a perfect/dream setup for big tornadoes ruined by only the cap apparently makes a few people who busted feel better, but it's dishonest and kinda sad and pathetic IMO. That's the core of my argument.

And with that summary I'm out of this thread.

 

[Richard Halter]

All I can ad to this discussion is

I pick a week to chase (months in advance) in the seasons that I can get into the Plains. If there is a risk area, I go to it no matter what, since any risk is better than none, and it is my vacation money.

Most of the time, it's just a long trip - but a few days it hasn't been too bad at all.

Living to chase, and chasing to keep my sanity (is that an oxymoron?)

I don't really care how anyone feels about anyone's forecast - it's my and my chase partner's that I can complain about, no one elses. I'll second guess myself if others hit and i am out of position and do the sacred dance of forbidden chaser merriment if I am right and add an extra sacred forbidden body move or two for those who weren't. :lol:

 

[Robert Dewey]

After reading through all the posts, I honestly don't understand why this thread exists - I mean, it's as simple as: If you want to chase, then do it, if you don't want to chase, then don't.

I am not understanding this "perfect" setup conversation either - I mean, any setup that generates, or has the potential to generate, at least a couple severe cells is a perfect setup, at least in my opinion... You guy's are all arguing opinions (i.e. a perfect setup, when to chase, why you shouldn't have chased). Maybe to Shane, Amos, Nick Grillo, or anyone else it was a "perfect setup" IN THEIR OPINION, so what's it matter to you? When I looked at the mesoanalysis, I seen quite a bit of helicity, instability, model output precipitation, decent moisture convergence, and a strong CAP - Basically the ingredients to generate a severe thunderstorm, had convection developed. Simply because a CAP exists shouldn't preclude a chase, in my opinion (again). There was obviously at least SOME chance of something happening, or a watch wouldn't have been posted.

And, to top it off... Who's to say, with 100% certainty, that the CAP wouldn't have busted - PRIOR to the event? It's funny no one speaks up and says anything BEFORE the event... People who say things like "oh, man, I would have never chased that setup" - or things similar - aren't hardcore chaser, at least in my opinion. A hardcore chaser goes out on the weakest of days, hoping for that single cell no one expected... I guess a "weekend warrior" would be a more correct term for those who only go out on the best of days, when they are almost guarenteed to see a tornado. Then again, some people complain of the easy days being too easy, and the hard days being too hard - You can't please everyone I guess...

 

[nickgrillo]

I very much agree with your post. Yesterday had all the ingredients to fuel up supercells/tornadoes, if convection would have developed. The models indicated that the CAP should break shortly after 22Z, and just like you said above, if nothing was expected to happen, then a tornado watch would have NEVER been issued...

 

[Mike Johnston]

Kevin Scharfenberg wrote:

If \"anyone with forecast experience\" could have pointed things out early yesterday, they certainly did NOT do so on this board, in fact as you can see many are still under the delusion that yesterday was a perfect/dream setup only ruined by the cap.

A look at the forecast thread for the subject day indicates that the folks who wrote a forecast were anticipating the cap, consistently for three days, and considering this factor in their targeting decisions. By chase day, I think this was a given for all interested parties that I talked to, at least.

Regarding the assertion that observational data should be looked at rather than the forecast models, I guess the general point is well taken. However, it seems to me the case might be a little overstated. It seems like the most practical approach for a chaser would be to consider both forecasts and actual observations. I mean, you have to get yourself within reasonable proximity in space and time to see these storm events, and it's hard to see how one could do this without the benefit of forecast information, including models. I agree (and have learned this year) that putting too much stock in severe index bullseyes alone - especially days in advance - can lead you astray in terms of overconfidence.

As to the post-mortem on what happened Saturday, yes, the cap was there and won the day, but who can really say for certain what would have happened if other variables were just slightly different? What about the cirrus deck that persisted over SE Nebraska during much of the day? What about the vigor and character of the surface lifting mechanism? Would just a little bit of upper air divergence have provided sufficient lift? I guess if anyone can answer these questions with confidence and clear explanation, showing me exactly how lack of (severe) initiation that day was a physical certainty, predictable in advance, then I stand ready to learn.

Regarding the question of to chase or not to chase, to me it's self-evident that one cannot make a blanket statement, unless it is based on rock-solid proof of a physical certainty. It comes down to a risk/reward tradeoff, which is a different analysis for every individual and every setup. The other day my locality had a strong storm approach. Based on radar and hearing a pounding sound against the house, I made a very low-risk/moderate payoff decision to "chase" by walking from the couch to the sliding glass door to observe nickel-sized hail. Another chaser may have planned a vacation to the plains months in advance, and spent two days analyzing the possibility of the convective system that produced the same hail, spent another 5 hours driving to the location, and may or may not have been fortunate enough to get into the exact position to observe the hail. The possibilities are endless. The benefit of this board is to learn from one another in order to make better decisions for ourselves, and a positive attitude always helps.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

The odd beauty of the atmosphere is that we cannot predict exactly what is going to happen. Throw a couple dozen chasers in the mix and you might get a couple dozen different forecasts/targets. One chasers' hot set-up might be anothers' poor set-up. Different interpretation and perspective. You can even see this when comparing various NWS AFDs and even SPC convective outlooks. The author of the now controversial thread does pose some reasonable thoughts that probably could have been addressed in a more smooth and timely manner. I think it is good to look back on a bust day and analyze what went wrong. Vise-versa on a boom day. Hind-site is 20/20 which is a good thing. I think we all agree that real data trumps the forecast models. I doubt many chasers go out after looking at the 12z NAM and not the surface and upper-air obs. In defense of the chasers out on 5/21, some of my favorite storms where on marginal days.

 

[Melissa Moon]

Originally posted by Kiel Ortega

1) If you make a bad forecast, don't try to make it look good by saying \"Had anything fired, it woulda been great!\" or \"this beautiful set up destroyed by the cap.\" Take the bad forecast and learn from it. I have. I have busted many times...but I learned (and I admit when I am wrong).

True...being wrong always sucks. Yes, there are always a few stubborn blokes out there who can't admit that they are ever wrong (which is exactly what Kiel is referring to and not anyone else). However, I think that when the majority of people talk about "what could have been" if something was different, I don't think they are saying that to cover up the fact that they are wrong or to deny that they are wrong, but rather to make themselves feel better for being wrong . After all, the knowledge of having been wrong about something is not always the most pleasant experience. Not that I am trying to defend anyone or take sides in this sitch, but that's how I've always perceived it when those kind of remarks are made by the majority of people. When it comes to the most stubborn of stubborn, though, Kiel does have a reason to rant (he's not the only one who finds it annoying). I also don't think Kiel is referring to anyone specific when he says this (or maybe he is...but I doubt it).

Overall, though, I think busting is just a natural part of chasing. It's gonna happen to all of us, whether we like it or not. No one's perfect. I agree with Kiel in the sense that it's not really worth going out unless you can come up with a better reason than a model/SPC-guided *forecast* (you know, like favorable data), but I see it that way mostly for the economical reasons. It's just not practical (but if you have the money and the time to do it, no one is stopping you )

 

[Shane Adams]

So the past two days were ruined by chasers going out? I mean, even though the data points to a stout cap, that stopped mattering once people ventured out...right?

At least from what I understand, this thread is basically saying "if you chase on days when you KNOW what the proboem is, then YOU become the problem and not the environmental issue." Example: Saturday's capbust was no longer a capbust when chasers went out; they themselves were at fault for chasing having kown the cap was an issue, and therefore shifted blame to themselves and their bad forecasts.

I wonder, when chasers do well, are they equally-responsible or just lucky?

 

[Kiel Ortega]

I am going to agree with Kevin and say a lot of people's emotion's are getting in the way. Further, I don't put a lot of my forecasts up here for the very reasons of why this thread suddenly got bad: emotional outbursts and very little reason.

No one here is saying chasing on thin probability days is bad. However, oversensationalization is. That was the point to begin with, but I guess the reading level here is somewhere around 3rd grade. Further, I like how people make assumptions about people they don't even know? Hey Shane, May 11 2005, W KS...was out there until about 10 when I finally saw the Ulysses tornado. Thanks for trying, but you BUSTED on assuming I ditch out early.


THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU Melissa, great post...that's a good clarification for everyone.

 

[Joe Nield]

Insults make it hard to stay in the saddle on that high horse. :roll:

 

[Mickey Ptak]

I know this was not directed at me but I still do not like the attitude.

Originally posted by Kiel Ortega+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Kiel Ortega)</div>

2) Don't justify a chase or no chase from what the SPC does. They have plenty of politics going into decisions (I would have to assume). True, they could not issue tornado watches when a PDS SVR makes more sense, but it's their choice.
[/b]

Yes sir! I shall never do that again I promise.

<!--QuoteBegin-Kiel Ortega

3) Don't call a crappy day a BEAUTIFUL day. (Really, this can only come from experience, so I will leave it at that).

Why not make a "crappy dayâ€￾ into an BEAUUTIFUL day? I am ALIVE and chasing. A great example was yesterdays chase (5/22/05 N. OK) The cap didn't brake (Booo Hoooo) but we got some a beautiful sunset among other things.

Originally posted by Kiel Ortega+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Kiel Ortega)</div>

4) Be a little open minded...not everyone is after your ego. And enjoy criticisms, because no one is RIGHT all the time (even my pompous ass)
[/b]

Very nicely put sir. Nicely put. Now it's time to take your own advice.

Originally posted by Kiel Ortega+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Kiel Ortega)</div>

4) not everyone is after your ego.
[/b]

Where did that come from?

<!--QuoteBegin-Kiel Ortega@
5) Models are unnecessary 3 hours out...look at data...too many times do I get on and people consistently talk about the models and don't really post about anything else (I think there was a discussion about this last year...but I maybe remembering one of my silly classes with books where I learn about the weather).

If the person responsible for the post enjoys relying on model data (even at 3 hours out) then that is their prerogative. Should that make your blood boil and you loose sleep over the postie’s ability to depart themselves from this “meteorological cancerâ€￾ then it very well may be time to seek professional help for yourself.

<!--QuoteBegin-Kiel Ortega

6) Just because you chase doesn't mean you deserve respect.

Well despite me not liking to say this, we do agree on this point at the very least.

Mick