Re: Yesterday
Anyone remember May 11th 2000, Iowa? Extreme instability and decent wind shear were present this day but so was a VERY strong cap.
True, but yesterday the instability and shear were both pretty marginal, so it's not a very good example. Which leads us to...
To each his own. Yesterday was a 50/50 day and it just happened to not work out in our favor. That's why SPC had a slight risk because they knew that if storms did fire they were going to be discrete and there wasn't going to be a widespread outbreak. Anyone with any forecasting experience could have pointed that out. But it's May and if given the slighest opportunity I will be out. Heck why bother chasing and spending a little money when you can just sit at home and re-live the events when chaser highlights videos come out. Because that seems like a better option for you and your money will be worth it because you are sure to see tornadoes.
There are two pains in life: 1) The pain of hard work 2) The pain of regret. You may think that you're high up on a pedestal right now because you chose not to chase but when the same "50/50" opportunity arises again and a couple of beautiful beautiful discrete storms fire you will be eating your words and experiencing the pain of regret. Because I can assure you that your pain of regret will be worse than the pain people were experiencing while getting a tan at 7:00p.m. in Nebraska yesterday.
Your first sentences about the forecast mirror what I've been saying all along. If "anyone with forecast experience" could have pointed things out early yesterday, they certainly did NOT do so on this board, in fact as you can see many are
still under the delusion that yesterday was a perfect/dream setup only ruined by the cap. And, as I've also stated over and over again, I have chased some pretty marginal setups in the last decade when the opportunity arose, and a few times I've been rewarded but busted far more often, so please save your lecturing for someone else. For the umpteenth time, my argument is with the people who were blowing yesterday's risk out of proportion before the fact and after the fact, not with those who chose to give it a try.
Also, 2005 hasn't been a down year. It's been an average year SO FAR and it's starting to hit people hard that not every year is not going to be like 2003 and 2004. That's why there's an overall depressed mood in the chase community that I can feel right now.
Well, this is my tenth season chasing and I'd say that, so far at least, it's somewhere around #8 when considering the overall opportunities. That doesn't mean it can't be #1 in a few weeks. I think you do have a good point, though. A few people who spent time/money on chase vacations are becoming increasingly agitated and are clearly on an emotional roller coaster with each new model bullseye. Such drama is not for me.
Since I'm effectively saying the same thing over and over again, and emotional people are putting words in my mouth, I'll spell it out one more time before taking my leave:
1) I'm not criticizing, second-guessing, or making fun of anyone who chose to chase yesterday. I don't think Kiel was either. Like I've said about 20 times, if I was on my chase vacation I probably would have been there too.
2) It's difficult to make a forecast when the capping inversion is the biggest question of the day, particularly when you have to make a decision early because you are a long distance from the target. Since I live in Norman my decision point was ~8:30am, and it wasn't obvious I made the right call.
3) Everyone has a different threshold of deciding when to chase on questionable days. Some people may decide to drive 1000 miles for the slightest of chances, while others may only wait for the obvious "big" days. I'll try not to make fun of the desperate guy who drives to Colorado on Christmas Day for the .000000001% chance of seeing a tornado (after all, if you don't play...).
4) I've honed in on this chase philosophy over my 10 years chasing, and my success rate is now ~1/5. Yes I'll miss a few good tornadoes this way (like the one near South Plains, TX a week ago) but it's not a big deal to me because chasing is not all there is to my life. It's just a personal decision and it's doing well enough for me to be happy and enjoy the hobby.
5) There were signs of trouble with yesterday's setup prior to 12Z, and especially after 18Z, and
IT WAS NOT JUST THE CAP, but also high dewpoint depressions and messy shear profiles. Pretending the day was a perfect/dream setup for big tornadoes ruined by only the cap apparently makes a few people who busted feel better, but it's dishonest and kinda sad and pathetic IMO. That's the core of my argument.
And with that summary I'm out of this thread.
:lol: 
. After all, the knowledge of having been wrong about something is not always the most pleasant experience. Not that I am trying to defend anyone or take sides in this sitch, but that's how I've always perceived it when those kind of remarks are made by the majority of people. When it comes to the most stubborn of stubborn, though, Kiel does have a reason to rant (he's not the only one who finds it annoying). I also don't think Kiel is referring to anyone specific when he says this (or maybe he is...but I doubt it).
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