Chasing Emily

[Chris Sokol]

Emily looks to make a possible landfall in Texas as a major hurricane, which will make it an achievable target for many plains chasers. I have already made arrangements at work to have the time off to chase Emily, assuming that she makes a US landfall.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I'd love to go, but since I am teaching a class 5 days a week... it will probably be a no-go for me. My students expressed interest in taking a field trip, however. Don't think the university would like that 8)

Aaron

 

[Karen Politte]

This morning's NHC discussion makes mention of the fact that all of the models have been significantly premature in breaking down the ridge north of Emily - and therefore their official forecast track is to the left or south of the model forecasts.

It appears that this ridge will be the deciding factor as to where Emily makes landfall. I don't know how conservatively south NHC are leaning. Right now it looks like it'll be Brownsville or bust!

KR

 

[Brandon Clement]

As long as I know she will hit in Tx 48 hours out and she is looking to be at least a cat. 3 then I will be there. It is about a 12 hour drive and I would not chase in that part of Mx under any circumstances so I have to be certain about landfall. Plus it is only July and it is starting too look like we can just wait a couple days for another major hurricane.

For anyone that is thinking about chasing this storm south of the border think again. You will not have to worry about the weather killing you because the people will get you first! Not the place I would like to get caught with a bunch of high end electronics, no police and a natural disaster about to occur. I have been to Metamoras, Mx and it is a very fun tourist attraction for about 5 miles south of the border, after that it is mostly made of slums with major problems.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I won't officially "chase" Emily, however, my Grandparents live in Corpus Christi, so if the path deviates a hair northward, I may make a trip down to help them out. I'm keeping a watchful eye on things, but unfortunately the time frame of landfall is right smack in the middle of my "work week".

 

[Mike Johnson]

Has anyone ever chased a hurricane in the Brownsville area? I was just wondering if it offers any safe chasing vantage points at all or is it like the LA and MS coasts where its all low inlets and marshes?

Mike

 

[Bob Schafer]

You can have a look for yourself here:

http://maps.google.com

That is where you can view the much-ballyhooed high-res Google sat imagery. Make sure you choose the sat imagery.

I had a look around there, and to me it looks like it's kinda S Padre Island or nothing. To the N of S Pad, looks like nothing but sand. No place to be if Emily comes ashore there! You could go inland, but dunno if you'd want to "chase" over there.

Anyway, enjoy looking at the Google imagery. It's always fun.

For broadband users only.

[edit] BTW, for those who didn't know: those images are NOT updated.

Bob

 

[Stuart Robinson]

After some thought I wont be making this trip - Emily - just downgraded (CAT2), however this will be short term IMO.

Emily is just too small in diamater (Hurricane strenth winds) to warrent the trip over from the UK just yet.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Originally posted by Bob Schafer
You can have a look for yourself here:

http://maps.google.com


I had a look around there, and to me it looks like it's kinda S Padre Island or nothing. To the N of S Pad, looks like nothing but sand. No place to be if Emily comes ashore there! You could go inland, but dunno if you'd want to \"chase\" over there.


Bob

Well, being born and raised around the island area and me knowing the terrain/area well, I'll throw my .02. South Padre Island would probably be a safe bet, but I would choose the other side of the bridge in Port Isabel. If the 1 1/2 -2 mile bridge goes out(Which has before), you're going to have to wait for rescue efforts or swim back inland. You could try Boca Chica beach a little to the south, but there really is no civilization except for on-duty border patrol agents who patrol frequently. There is pretty much nothing to the north of So. Padre as far as roads and the island itself thins to pretty much nothing. Port Brownsville is an option but mostly consists of ships and what not, and from what I hear is very hard to get into there. If Emily were to hit this area, I would choose Port Isabel as a safe location, but for the hard-core people wanting to take the risk, South Padre Island is there. Good luck to all, and be safe. I really hope this area doesn't take a direct hit, especially with a major hurricane. Keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[Jim Tang]

For those who are planning to chase, look at the 18Z GFS. Track is back down south into Mexico, and look for the rest of the models to follow it.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

We're starting up with our special images again:
http://www.stormtrack.org/special

This composites NHC track, radar, and model forecast tracks.

Tim

 

[Shane Adams]

I don't think a landfalling US cane will ever strike around the LA/TX border. That's about the only place I've never seen one hit in my 33 years. As for Emily, I've already had an offer to go but right now it doesn't look like it's in the cards. Even if I had the money, I'm still not too jazzed about the amount of work and preperation that goes into a hurricane intercept. Still seems like more work than fun, and definitely not worth the expense. Especially when I'm not getting thousands of dollars in guaranteed stringer money for all my investments.

 

[Chris Sokol]

IT IS STILL TO SOON...
HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.

Texas is still not out of the woods. Emily is bordering on CAT 5 status. If she does take a turn for the US coast, I will have to be there for this one.

 

[Anthony Silver]

The storm looks as if it will make a direct hit on the NE Mexico coast. Looks like Texas will get off the hook on this one.


EDIT: In my earlier post, I stated that Emily would directly impact Cancun. Actually what I meant was NE Mexico. I stand Corrected.
That'll teach me not to post things when I've been up for 36 hours straight without any sleep. :lol:

 

[Owen Shieh]

There's a TUTT low sitting in the Bay of Campeche, and with the oncoming trough diving in from the plains, the low is just going to elongate N-S, stall, having Emily crash into it, then Emily will be jogging toward TX, but at the last minute, the ridge builds back in, and it'll turn left and make landfall in Mexico. That's my thinking for now at least. It'll be harder on those wanting to chase TX if that were the case, but I'm sure TX will get some decent rains from this.