Chasers obtaining useful data?

[Warren Faidley]

A reporter from Canada asked me this question on air last week during the outbreak and I referred them to the University of Oklahoma, but I'd like to get some feedback from the weather brains here.

How much real and useful scientific data is obtained by chasers using high-speed cameras, probes and rockets. And, is such data going to eventually "save lives" as some chasers claim? I've been told that to gain true scientific information there needs to be multiple data sets, e.g., large VORTEX type operations, where the accuracy and validity can be confirmed or rejected. I've had a couple of well respected researchers me it's mostly "bogus" science but none of them want to go public with such comments.

And lastly, why is this life-saving information that chasers gather never published in peer-reviewed scientific publications, the hallmark of where you would expect such research to be presented?

Warren

 

[chrisbray]

No idea. I see Reed is still posting about collecting parachute probes from this past weekend's chases. He has been deploying probes of one variety or another for 5 years now I think? You'd think at some point, something would come of it. Now I am not saying this to bash him or any other people that deploy probes etc. I'm jsut echoing some of Warren's thoughts. I doubt he would go through all that trouble to repeatedly deploy various devices without using that data somehow. I'm sure it costs plenty of money.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I go back and forth on this one. It's probably true that most any chaser mounting or deploying mobile instruments (apart from an organized research effort) isn't going to collect data that will be of sufficient quality for a peer-reviewed paper. But I wouldn't go so far to say that there's no possibility that the efforts could be worthwhile in some way, or that any goal less than publishing a peer-reviewed paper is worthy of scorn.

Davis and Oregon Scientific sell thousands of weather stations. I would guess that most people don't buy those with scientific research in mind, nor are most stations going to be installed in a manner to make their data of any value. There is a hobbyist 'tinkering with gadgets' aspect to using weather instruments while chasing, just like there is for the person who installs a Davis rig on their back porch. It's a fun little gadget to mess around with and maybe capture some data that will be interesting to look at. And who knows - might these attempts at launching probes lead to the development of something that *could* be used in research-grade missions in the future? Might a network of Davis or OS stations show a trend somehow that could lead to a more focused research project using higher-end instruments? Maybe the chances of that are remote, but if someone wants to tinker around with instruments on a chase for the fun of it and *maybe* make some sort of discovery or innovation, I guess I don't have a big problem with it.

Again, I'm not taking sides or condoning the over-ascribing of such efforts as directly 'saving lives', I just think that there is probably a balance somewhere in the middle of both extremes.

 

[Warren Faidley]

But the issue is that the chasing or tactics are being openly "sold" and "pitched" as critical research, not as anything that might have an unknown contribution down the line. If this was so then any chaser or person with a backyard weather station could claim to be a "researcher." I could claim I'm a "researcher" or "scientist" because my pictures may have some scientific purpose in 10-20 years.

I think there is a line between legitimate research like VORTEX and those abuse the label for self gain and public / media / law enforcement trust -- otherwise just say you are chasing storms to make a production, for fun or whatever?

W.

 

[Jonathan Williamson]

Honestly, I think very little useful data other than ground truth and observation comes from chasing. However, there are exceptions. Twistex was chasing and attempting ground-level research with the probes, and VORTEX/VORTEX II, little useful science has come or most likely ever will from the individual chasers.
Again just my opinion.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Honestly, I think very little useful data other than ground truth and observation comes from chasing. However, there are exceptions. Twistex was chasing and attempting ground-level research with the probes, and VORTEX/VORTEX II, little useful science has come or most likely ever will from the individual chasers.
Again just my opinion.

Yes, I certainly consider Tim a researcher and there was no doubt about it. His chasing was on focused projects and answering specific questions. I also believe he had some type of scientific affiliation(s) with corporate or research entities -- which none of the chasers claiming to be conducting research have.

W.

 

[Rob H]

99% of people that "justifiy" their chasing by saying they're doing it for science/to save lives/research are full of s**t, which is what this thread is really about. It's stupid that people feel the need to justify anything, but I don't see an issue with telling a reporter this in a blunt manner - there's no need to dance around it. If someone wants to be that 1/100 that proves me wrong, I'll happily eat crow.

 

[Stan Rose]

99% of people that "justifiy" their chasing by saying they're doing it for science/to save lives/research are full of s**t, which is what this thread is really about. It's stupid that people feel the need to justify anything, but I don't see an issue with telling a reporter this in a blunt manner - there's no need to dance around it. If someone wants to be that 1/100 that proves me wrong, I'll happily eat crow.

Are there even 100 people (aside from actual research groups) who claim theyre chasing for research or deploying probes etc? I guess i don't get out enough cause i only know a few.

 

[Peter Wharton]

I chase because the storms are magnificent, it's a great road trip in the States once a year, the photographic opportunities are endless, and I really enjoy sharing my time with people who share the same passions - do I also report severe weather on Spotter Network? of course, being out there with a visual perspective is useful to the locals - the sirens have gone off after I've reported a tornado, I've been phoned in the field by NWS for my visual perspective and we can lend a hand in the event of a really bad event - do I "justify" storm chasing because it saves lives? of course not, but as a side effect of being there, it's contingent on chasers to equip themselves properly to provide info to the authorities whenever they can - why not?

 

[Jeff Duda]

How much real and useful scientific data is obtained by chasers using high-speed cameras, probes and rockets. And, is such data going to eventually "save lives" as some chasers claim? I've been told that to gain true scientific information there needs to be multiple data sets, e.g., large VORTEX type operations, where the accuracy and validity can be confirmed or rejected. I've had a couple of well respected researchers me it's mostly "bogus" science but none of them want to go public with such comments.

I generally agree with what you've been told. Tornado measurements from probes and rockets only generally give one data point. Therefore, those measurements, while revealing information about a rare or difficult to capture atmospheric phenomenon, are generally not that useful on their own. They can provide the seed for further research that does eventually make a significant contribution to improving society, but those bigger projects are more like the VORTEX(2) type projects that have multiple aspects, each of which obtaining multiple data points and multiple cases.

High-speed cameras? I think that's a different story. Much current lightning research involves using high-speed photography of visible bolts near the surface. I think such visual measurements can indeed provide critical research information. However, there's still the fact that the data collected is pretty much 100% used for science research at this point, with little of that information translating directly to societal improvements.

And lastly, why is this life-saving information that chasers gather never published in peer-reviewed scientific publications, the hallmark of where you would expect such research to be presented?

Exactly. You can tell who's really doing good scientific research by perusing the AMS/NWA/AGU journals. I haven't really seen any severe weather research from a storm chasing perspective published in the QJRMS. That's not to say there isn't anything in there, though.

99% of people that "justifiy" their chasing by saying they're doing it for science/to save lives/research are full of s**t

Pretty much the statement of the thread here. This really has been hashed and rehashed before on this forum. Although Warren is coming at it from a slightly different angle. So I can see it warranting merit.

 

[dixiealleyspotter]

I have been waiting to vent about this for a while now.... While I do agree that what these data gathering chasers are accomplishing may be useful down the road I do not believe it is where the breakthroughs are being made. Take some time and look into what the big brained desk jockeys at the NSSL- NOAA Severe Weather Testbed are up to..... This is where millions of dollars are being spent and tremendous advancements are being made. The models they are working with and developing further are mind blowing. In five years time they may be able to pinpoint where long track, significant events will happen and when. That is where the future lies in terms of life saving advancements..... With the models. They are so confident in the ability of these models that they are even looking into the possibility of developing "Contraflows" for mass evacuations prior to a Tornadic event... That means they believe the models will really be able to predict these cells with pin-point accuracy.

But here is the part I have been waiting to interject into a discussion on usefulness of chasers. We should all be proud and never afraid to admit why we are really out there. I believe that years ago the scientific community sent us chasers out into the danger to find the answers to the Tornado problem.... And I believe that in the years chasers have been gathering data that is supposed to "save lives" we have stumbled upon the real answer to the Tornado problem... Having chasers out there is the answer. We are the first responders, the eyes under the Meso, the model verifiers, the last line of defense for the public, chasers have helped so many people and saved so many lives it is tremendous.

When chasers roll into town the people pay attention, they become aware of the danger and the need to "stay weather savvy". With the videos, pictures and stories we present we have woke up the country to the potential these events have.

The difference I have seen in the public just over the last 5 years that chasing has really taken off is tremendous.... In Tuscaloosa 2011 after dodging the tornado by a half mile I stopped at a gas station to fill up and was horrified that NO ONE had any idea that severe weather was even expected that day let alone knew that they missed being impacted by a tornado by just a few miles. But this year.... even on the slight risk days the public is a buzz discussing the weather and making plans for the worst. That is what will and has saved lives.

If some chasers want to tinker and boast about doing science that is fine.... just remember and abide by the code.... Observe, Report, Render Aid.

 

[rdale]

Can you post a reference to the contraflows planing?

 

[Matt Hunt]

Having chasers out there is the answer. We are the first responders, the eyes under the Meso, the model verifiers, the last line of defense for the public, chasers have helped so many people and saved so many lives it is tremendous.

When chasers roll into town the people pay attention, they become aware of the danger and the need to "stay weather savvy". With the videos, pictures and stories we present we have woke up the country to the potential these events have.

The difference I have seen in the public just over the last 5 years that chasing has really taken off is tremendous.... In Tuscaloosa 2011 after dodging the tornado by a half mile I stopped at a gas station to fill up and was horrified that NO ONE had any idea that severe weather was even expected that day let alone knew that they missed being impacted by a tornado by just a few miles. But this year.... even on the slight risk days the public is a buzz discussing the weather and making plans for the worst. That is what will and has saved lives.

I'm not sure about this. In some ways I think we may be making it worse, because people see our pictures and videos online, and they want to go out and capture footage themselves, but with significantly less weather knowledge. Virtually every tornado warned storm I've been on, I've driven past residences where everyone was out on the front porch, trying to see it. In many cases they don't even have a very good view, and aren't even looking in the correct direction.

I'm not so sure that ground truth is really that helpful. In many cases the storm already has a warning on it. If anything, the ground truth is more helpful to the NWS to know whether or not the warnings they're issuing are warranted. The argument could be made that a confirmed tornado just brings more people out of their homes in an attempt to see it.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm not so sure that ground truth is really that helpful. In many cases the storm already has a warning on it.

In the Plains, that's true for the most part. In the Midwest, South and east coast, many tornado events happen in the complete absence of chasers.

 

[Logan Karsten]

What I think would be really beneficial is if NSSL could harness the power of crowdsourcing somehow with chasers. mPING is a really good example of how NSSL is already doing this with various meteorological reports (http://mping.nssl.noaa.gov). If an engineer could somehow develop a relatively cheap, small, meteorological instrumentation that chasers could put on the top of their vehicles that would automatically relay information to an NSSL database for future analysis. Of course this is a pie in the sky dream, but given how many chasers are at various points around a supercell thunderstorm in the plains, there is a potential treasure trove of meteorological data that could be had.