Chaser traffic in 2012 and the "CTI" (Chaser Traffic Index)

[Dan Robinson]

I thought it might be useful to hear from others about the degree of chaser/local traffic problems throughout the season.

I've put some thought into quantifying the chaser traffic problem, and here is the scale I came up with:



More detail:
http://stormhighway.com/blog2016/april2516a.php


Here are some CTI values on a few of my recent and past chases:

• April 14, 2012 - NW Oklahoma: CTI-3

• April 13, 2012 - SW Oklahoma: CTI-2

• April 12, 2012 - NW Kansas: CTI-1

• April 22, 2011 - Missouri: CTI-1

• April 19, 2011 - Illinois: CTI-0

• May 10, 2010 - Oklahoma: CTI-4

• May 12, 2004 - Kansas: CTI-2

• May 29, 2004 - Oklahoma: CTI-1

• May 5, 2007 - Kansas: CTI-3

• May 4, 2007 - Kansas: CTI-3

• April 23, 2007 - Kansas: CTI-4

• June 9, 2005 - Kansas: CTI-2

• June 12, 2005 - Texas: CTI-3

• June 12, 2004 - Kansas: CTI-3

• June 11, 2004 - Iowa: CTI-1

I wasn't there, but from the pictures and video I've seen, May 19, 2010 in Oklahoma was a CTI-7 or CTI-8. That event is likely the worst that storm chasing has ever seen in its history. April 14, 2012 in Kansas looks like a CTI-6, not quite as bad as 5/19/2010 but still probably ranking in the top 5 of storm chasing traffic hordes in sheer numbers.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Have you got any links to some examples from the May 2010 chase? Just to give me a mental image of the scale we're talking about here.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Here's a picture from near Kingfisher, OK, on 5/19/10, taken by JR Hehnly and available on his website:

 

[Karen St John]

Remind me to grab a different storm...

 

[David Drummond]

We got caught in something Saturday that very much resembled Jeff's photo. We were in the initial line, and I finally decided to pull of and watch until it passed and drop back on the next storm coming up (which payed off bigtime). We waited and watched while a line of traffic as far as I could see to the south came by. I'm quite sure it was well over 200 cars. Most of the cars you could identify as "real" chasers were in the first group we were in, closest to the storm. The fast majority of this last line all had KS plates, and rarely did one of them have anything readily identifiable as a chaser, inside the vehicle or outside. Mostly people holding cell phones or similar devices, many of them taking pictures of US as they went by, rather than the storm. I doubt if there were 5 in the whole group that were chasers before that day. I'd classify that one in the 7 on your index Dan. It's personally the worst chase train I have ever witnessed, and it was mostly full of KS residents.

Taking the next storm coming out of OK, we saw only a handful of chasers after that.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

By that criteria, what I've witnessed on my chases so far this year at worst:

February 3: CTI-0
April 2: CTI-1
April 9: CTI-1
April 13: CTI-1
April 14: CTI-4 to CTI-5

High risks are a powerful drug.

 

[Paul Sherman]

High Risk's on a Saturday are a Bad Deal.

The two worst I can verify are 5th May 2007 near Stafford (Saturday) & 14th April 2012 North of Kingman (Saturday)
Luckily was not privvy to the May 19th 2010 carve up near Kingfisher as we played the Dryline further South and watched the Wynewood Monster Spit out numerous Tornadoes before Sunset with only a few Chasers around, apparantly the rest were either stuck North West of Oklahoma City or could not make it down in time due to construction near Paul's Valley and the Oklahoma Rush Hour.

Will be interesting to see if another High Risk falls on a Saturday in Oklahoma or Kansas during May. Good luck if it does.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Here's a picture from near Kingfisher, OK, on 5/19/10, taken by JR Hehnly and available on his website:

Remind me to grab a different storm...

Yikes, you're not kidding! That's really just ridiculous right there.

 

[Timothy Finn]

We got caught in something Saturday that very much resembled Jeff's photo. We were in the initial line, and I finally decided to pull of and watch until it passed and drop back on the next storm coming up (which payed off bigtime). We waited and watched while a line of traffic as far as I could see to the south came by. I'm quite sure it was well over 200 cars. Most of the cars you could identify as "real" chasers were in the first group we were in, closest to the storm. The fast majority of this last line all had KS plates, and rarely did one of them have anything readily identifiable as a chaser, inside the vehicle or outside. Mostly people holding cell phones or similar devices, many of them taking pictures of US as they went by, rather than the storm. I doubt if there were 5 in the whole group that were chasers before that day. I'd classify that one in the 7 on your index Dan. It's personally the worst chase train I have ever witnessed, and it was mostly full of KS residents.

Taking the next storm coming out of OK, we saw only a handful of chasers after that.

Just out of curiousity....

How do you identify, or define, or determine, a "real" chaser?

Thanks,
Tim

 

[Jake Orosi]

Amber light bars, naturally.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

And if you look real close at that picture, you'll see what made May 19, 2010 so horrific. Throw a Saturday High Risk near OKC in with 100 Vortex 2 vehicles on top of it...yeah, that kind of thing happens. Not blaming Vortex 2, but it certainly didn't help.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Jacob -- V2 was on that storm, but there aren't that many V2 vehicles in that picture, and there certainly were fewer than 100 V2 vehicles (I get your point, and I know you weren't really meaning 100, just "a lot"). The radar truck I was in was ahead/east of the DOW in the picture, and we saw primarily non-V2 vehicles. On that particular day, it was [edit: NOT a weekend] a relatively small high risk in central OK. That may have been "worst case" back in 2010. If we take the vehicles I saw on 4/12 on SpotterNetwork, put them on one storm, and assume that most locals aren't on SN, I think we could dwarf what's shown in that picture now (only 2 years later).

If I see a car that has a few people in it with plates the same as the state I'm chasing in, with no signs of maps or any camera/camcorder equipment (not counting an iPhone or other smart phone), I think there's a better-than-not chance that the people in that vehicle are probably not active storm chasers. Of course, one doesn't need such equipment to chase, but it certainly looks more like a "hey, Gary England is showing a storm up here -- grab your iPhone and let's go!"-type of event than a chaser who's been watching model forecasts for 5 days, got up early to look at the 12z soundings and latest model data, gathered up his/her gear, and hit the road. Note that this is legal, so I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it. In addition, I've made a few spot chases in which I didn't pack my equipment before leaving work or another location (largely because I hadn't planned on chasing that day), but those tend to be marginal or "surprise" days, typically very diffferent from the days we're talking about (weekend high risk in W/C OK through W/C KS).

 

[Jason Haller]

We got caught in something Saturday that very much resembled Jeff's photo. We were in the initial line, and I finally decided to pull of and watch until it passed and drop back on the next storm coming up (which payed off bigtime). We waited and watched while a line of traffic as far as I could see to the south came by. I'm quite sure it was well over 200 cars. Most of the cars you could identify as "real" chasers were in the first group we were in, closest to the storm. The fast majority of this last line all had KS plates, and rarely did one of them have anything readily identifiable as a chaser, inside the vehicle or outside. Mostly people holding cell phones or similar devices, many of them taking pictures of US as they went by, rather than the storm. I doubt if there were 5 in the whole group that were chasers before that day. I'd classify that one in the 7 on your index Dan. It's personally the worst chase train I have ever witnessed, and it was mostly full of KS residents.

Taking the next storm coming out of OK, we saw only a handful of chasers after that.

I consider my self a "Budget Chaser". I only chase within a radius of my home town so that I will be able to return home after a day of chasing. It limits me on which storms I can pick up sure but for my own financial reason I can't do more. I don't have anything on my van that would tell you I am a storm chaser but I do have my Ipad loaded with Radarscope, My Android phone with both Radar Scope and PYKL3. I have a cheap laptop that is setup with GRlevel3 and Spotter network with a GPS puck. I have almost all of Tim's forecasting books. I have loved following severe weather all my life. Just because I don't have a half dozen antennas on my vehicle, hail guards, and have local plates does not disqualify me as a chaser.

I was on the storm that tracked threw Rice, Saline, Dickinson, and Riley counties. I saw exactly what you did. I had my friend driving so I could considerate on navigation and the radar to keep us safe. I saw, first hand some of the worst driving behavior in all my years on the road. Cars would fail to yield to emergency vehicles, people, kind of pulled over on the shoulder with there doors opened to oncoming traffic (saw a local news chase crew get scolded by a local police officer for doing this exact thing.)

My point in my post more to a point is just because I have local plates on my vehicle did not make me any less of a chaser than people with out of state plates, light bars, and antennas.

 

[Travis Davis]

On that particular day, it was a weekend with a relatively small high risk in central OK.

Actually Jeff, if this is May 19th that you are talking about, then it was a Wednesday. I remember being at work and catching the earliest flight I could back home from Boston that morning.

I remember thinking that the traffic was crazy for being a weekday. It took me over five minutes to get back on the road after I pulled off.

 

[T Metz]

I would say the 4-14-12 traffic in and around Salina was on average a CTI-5.