Chase Case #15

[Michael O'Keeffe]

After seeing the surface obs, it looks like the dryline is still pretty far west so we are going to head to Seymour, TX with the temptation to head west, but we likely wait for the 21z to make another move as the dryline will likely move a bit further west and I don't want to end up west of the dryline.

 

[Bob Gould]

With the warm front still south I think I will head south on I35 to Ardmore, Ok. That will give me a good north/south and east/west route.

 

[Jared Farrer]

I am likeing the spearmen TX to around Pampa area.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I would like to see stronger LL winds at 18z but maybe we'll get some storm enhanced inflow going....eager for some satellite pics and maybe a theta panel.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Like Verne, I like the convection off to the NW. Notice that it seems to be backbuilding, though. And a temp/Td of 71/33 around Arriba indicates a dryline bulge to the SSW.So I think that for now, I'm just going to stay put till the next model run, unless the sky tells me different.

 

[Wes Carter]

I think I'm going to stay put and head over to Bill's Catfish House and order a catfish basket and take my laptop inside to watch things on WeatherTap. I'm not sure which direction I'm going to go, but I'm pretty confident I'm in a good place to go any direction I need to.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I am going to head over to North Platte NE. I should be there a good bit before the 21z update. I will chase anything that pops within 75 miles N,S,E,W. . .


Edit: Well, I made it to North Platte NE

 

[Sarah Austin]

Based on 15z, I think I will stay in Dodge City, KS. I know it's not the freshest air to breathe because of all the cows, so I will try to stay upwind of that. Maybe I'll go look at Boot Hill while I wait for the next update.

Originally posted by Marc Austin
Gonna head on over to Ellis, KS. I'm not hoping to repeat my experience from May 23 of last year! Although, I must say, it's a lucky place. Two tornadoes passed within a mile of our location and we escaped unharmed.

Yeah, I don't want to repeat that either. I don't mind hanging out with people I don't know from time to time, but 20 people in a bathroom is a bit much! LOL! I think I'll stay on my perch! Good luck in Ellis, Marc.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

1845Z - Nice(sarcastically). Based on latest MD, I am going to go West and stop at Wakeeney, KS. Should be there by 20Z.

 

[Sarah Austin]

Ok, I'm getting caught up a little more now. For the 18z update, I am quickly realizing I should be in Shamrock, TX at this point. Briefly considering trying to drive at warp speed to get there by nightfall. No, I think I will head East and North. The radar shows more clearing up there. We'll see. I'll officially try to reach Salina, but will keep my options open.

Originally posted by Marc Austin
(i.e. dark cone shaped cloud headed for Dickens).

I hear they have some good potato wedges up there. LOL!

 

[Paul Austin]

19z Supplemental

Well, I forgot to post an MD and a WW, so if this would have changed your 19z decision, adjust as you would have. Note, I do not have graphics for the WWs, and I have left off some of the WW's and MD's that do not pertain to any area of concern. (So no, you didn't miss anything with the continued WW 1 in the discussion.)

MD #7

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 7NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX...AND SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 1842Z - 2115Z
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION SEWD INTO NWRN TX IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE 20Z-0Z PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE A
TORNADO WATCH IF STORMS CAN IN FACT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.

PARTIAL CLEARING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD ACROSS NWRN TX...THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...AND SWRN OK IS RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
AT 18Z.SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND AMPLE INSOLATION HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN TX
BASED ON 18Z ANALYSES. A SIGNIFICANT CAP /CIN -100 TO -150 J/KG/
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK WHERE
CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CIN HAS LESSENED TO -25 TO -50 J/KG IN THE
REGION BOUNDED BY SPS-CDS-ABI.

ALOFT...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON WV IMAGERY IS A CONCERN FOR
INITIATION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER /21-00Z/ IN RESPONSE TO A 80-90KT
500MB JET MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. DEEP-LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR
OF 50-55KT IS PRESENT ON PROFILER DATA AT TCU AND WSM WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AN ANTICIPATED SHARPENING OF THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT SUGGEST POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STORMS CONTINUING EWD INTO SWRN OK
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK [FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]140 PM CDT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF [FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NORTHWEST LOUISIANA[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]800 PM CDT.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WARNINGS.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED FROM NEAR THE SHV[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]AREA TO NORTH OF DFW THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z SOUNDING FROM FTW[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]INDICATES AIR MASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED ATTM...THOUGH FURTHER[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS... WITH LIKELY EVOLUTION INTO[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]HP-STRUCTURES...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO NWRN LA THROUGH[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]THE EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO SYSTEMS[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]EVOLVING.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]

 

[Paul Austin]

20Z Observations:


Visible Satellite Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Middle Mississippi Valley
Lower Mississippi Valley

Surface Observations:
Central Plains

No MD's or WW's for 20z

Chase Positioning Map

 

[Marc Austin]

Going to head on up to McCook, NE and hope to be in place when initiation starts over northeastern CO and moves into the area. This looks like an all or nothing kind of day.

 

[David Wolfson]

In Pampa at 20Z. It's just not getting warm enough to the north. I'm foregoing Canadian in favor of hanging out off the caprock in Clarendon, TX, at 21Z.

 

[Sarah Austin]

Based on the MD, I changed my mind and started heading south towards Shamrock.

I looked at the 20z update....Suddenly, nightchasers.u-turn makes a comeback. It's not an official chase until there's at least one u-turn. LOL! If you guys only knew how true that is for our team!!! So, I'm making that u-turn and heading to Amarillo, TX. The Big Texan, here I come. Shamrock wasn't too far off as a guess. I think I can make it if I don't make too many stops. The dew points look a lot better down there.