Caribbean: Hurricane Tomas

[Josh Morgerman]

OK, that is an insane-looking disturbance. I've never seen a non-classified system with such a spectacular presentation. Looks like a monster cyclone in the making.

Of course, what I'm wondering is: where will it go? The models seem to favor a sharp recurve in the C Caribbean, as is typical this time of year. It all depends on what happens with a big trough that'll be moving across the USA over the next week.

I would love for this thing to get into the W Caribbean, but I'm not exactly getting my hopes up... yet.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I just saw that sat image of it while looking at Shary, and it's amazing how good that disturbance looks without being classified yet. If it develops it'll be a huge storm (at least in size)

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Recon just found a definite closed circulation. This is Tomas.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Just to add to Conner's post above - 91L has now been classified as Tropical Storm Tomas.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

As per every meteorologist I've chatted with about this one, the track prognosis looks really complex and murky beyond Day 5.

What I'd give to have a solid ridge establish to the N of it-- to send it on a nice, straight, W path across the Caribbean! <sigh>

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The NHC's forecast is out, and they have a major, 100-kt 'cane in the C Caribbean by Day 4. Not bad.

Jamaica seems to be under some threat.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I'm in California until the 14th of November and I'm quite confident this will NOT affect FL or the US. Maybe Jamaica (?).

I'll keep an eye on it and return early if I see any (rare) possibilities. Now, for those daring enough to go to Jamaica (and get mugged) as in '07, go 4 it.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,

I'm in California until the 14th of November and I'm quite confident this will NOT affect FL or the US. Maybe Jamaica (?).

I'll keep an eye on it and return early if I see any (rare) possibilities. Now, for those daring enough to go to Jamaica (and get mugged) as in '07, go 4 it.

Hey, Chris! My hope is that the cyclone gets further W than Jamaica, although I'd say it's a less likely scenario at this time.

What happened in 2007? Did someone get mugged while chasing Dean?

 

[Bryant Burough]

Yeah with a pretty substantial trough in place by the time this thing matures, I would have to say the U.S. is going to be spared from a monster of a storm.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

...What happened in 2007? Did someone get mugged while chasing Dean?

Some folks in Jamaica with Dean in '07 had a wallet stolen and a subsequent foot chase / struck by car (uninjured). Loss of wallet / passport made for a very aweful experience afterwards, expensive too. I was not there though. Jamaica is safe only within the resorts, so keep that in mind if you / anyone goes there.

It appears that Tomas will enter the central Caribbean and make a hard right turn to the north, then NNE, and pass east of Florida / Bahamas late next week.

I can cut my trip short but I am really not in the mood for that after such a "knife edge" hurricane season (for what it was worth). Bermuda (Igor) was cool, though!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Yeah with a pretty substantial trough in place by the time this thing matures, I would have to say the U.S. is going to be spared from a monster of a storm.

Good day all,
It appears that Tomas will enter the central Caribbean and make a hard right turn to the north, then NNE, and pass east of Florida / Bahamas late next week.

I can cut my trip short but I am really not in the mood for that after such a "knife edge" hurricane season (for what it was worth). Bermuda (Igor) was cool, though!

While it's probably the most likely scenario, that sharp recurve is not a given. The models are giving mixes signals, and, interestingly, the NHC forecast track has this moving straight WNW with no turn through Day 5. I'm not suggesting that this is a USA threat-- but I don't know that it's going to recurve sharply across Hispaniola, either.

It's be interesting to see how this shapes up during the next few days. Naturally, a weaker trough or more ridging N of the cyclone will make for some interesting scenarios late next week.

I'm gonna keep hope alive.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,

Some folks in Jamaica with Dean in '07 had a wallet stolen and a subsequent foot chase / struck by car (uninjured). Loss of wallet / passport made for a very aweful experience afterwards, expensive too. I was not there though. Jamaica is safe only within the resorts, so keep that in mind if you / anyone goes there.

Yikes-- that is awful. Thank God no one was injured, at least. I am always worried about stuff like this happening when I'm chasing outside of the USA. Stories like this remind me to be super-vigilant.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The sharp recurve around Hispaniola is looking more likely now. The models seem to be really settling on that solution.

 

[Jason Harris]

Hmm, doesn't Tomas get an upgrade to Hurricane for this thread title? Or does he need to reach CAT 2 first. No eye, but still looking good at 90 MPH CAT 1. Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia has gust up to 69. Some interesting historical data from Jeff Master

Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented.

s:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1678
---
ah, I see the title is now updated, that's nice. Hopefully Tomas will hit Cuba (and better yet FL, but that looks dubious as all have noted) instead of Haiti, which is suffering now from Cholera outbreaks:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/10/30/haiti.cholera/index.html?hpt=T1

Ghastly.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

2010 should also be one of the busiest seasons but WITH the least US landfalls - Actually NO hurricanes made landfall in the US this year (2010).

Tomas, of all places, looks like it MAY take a direct aim on Haiti later this weak, speaking of "unfairness" ;-(