Justin McGinley
EF1
Everyone had experience bust days, so could we shed some light on what causes these days?
-
While Stormtrack has discontinued its hosting of SpotterNetwork support on the forums, keep in mind that support for SpotterNetwork issues is available by emailing [email protected].
Bust days
- Thread starter Justin McGinley
- Start date
rdale
EF5
Well, a bust happens when you forecast big storms and there are none. It has only one cause - a bad forecast.
Justin McGinley
EF1
Well I can understand the bad forecast, but I was look for more like what happen up in the atmosphere like something was missing to fire off the big storms.
rdale
EF5
It depends. Could be warm air capping, could be a lack of lift, could be a lack of clearing so reduced instability, etc. According to "the atmosphere" there was no bust. A bust means that the forecast was incorrect, the "why" depends on a boatload of possibilities. And sometimes you may never be able to determine the why.
James Gustina
Supporter
Another thing to go off capping could be that the cap is so weak that you get a lot of "crapvection" clutter around what should have been "the big one". Like dale said there's numerous ways for things to go wrong forecast-wise.
swilson
EF1
The rolling hills of Kentucky. 
No really, my friend and I had a chance to chase anything that occurred yesterday but on a limited time schedule knowing that it would probably pick up later evening, and it did. but what we saw on radar and models looked pretty good but after getting to lower KY it all kinda fizzled.
Ya live and learn. We still had fun though and on to the next chase!
No really, my friend and I had a chance to chase anything that occurred yesterday but on a limited time schedule knowing that it would probably pick up later evening, and it did. but what we saw on radar and models looked pretty good but after getting to lower KY it all kinda fizzled.Ya live and learn. We still had fun though and on to the next chase!
James Gustina
Supporter
Yeah but like dale said, Bust days are from a wrong forecast for a target area. It can literally be hundred of little mesoscale events that decide whether you succeed or fail. Being able to find those events is what defines the chase.
Justin McGinley
EF1
ok you guys i see now
Jason Foster
Does anyone consider not getting a tornado a bust? Seem to see that notion a bit the last few years. Yes, I know it's personal choice and thank god we are free to decide for ourselves (because I'm pretty loose myself with calling something a bust).
But whats been said, yes...it's all in the forecast. Whether it was yours, someone else doing the forecast. But focusing too much on it is only healthy when finding how to get better, but in the end, it will happen. The day that forecasts are so good busts don't happen is the day you'll see a ton of mets leave the biz. I think the challenge is part of the interest and fun.
But whats been said, yes...it's all in the forecast. Whether it was yours, someone else doing the forecast. But focusing too much on it is only healthy when finding how to get better, but in the end, it will happen. The day that forecasts are so good busts don't happen is the day you'll see a ton of mets leave the biz. I think the challenge is part of the interest and fun.
James Gustina
Supporter
I'd still consider storm structure as being just as good as a tornado. If i was to say get a rain wrapped tornado with poor contrast, the stacked plates LP would be the better chase. But that's my two cents on it.
Chris Wilburn
EF4
I don't worry about bust days. If they happen life goes on. I like storm structure and storms in general so I don't consider not scoring a tornado a bust. Driving, listening to music and spending time with friends are all fun parts of the chase as well.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
As you note, it depends upon how you define "bust". Personally, a "bust" for me is a chase that significantly underperforms relative to the forecast and expectations. If I'm expecting a significant tornado event, and we just get some non-tornadic supercells, I may consider the forecast a bust. On the other hand, if my own forecast is for a pretty marginal event, I may be extremely pleased if I get a picturesque nontornadic supercell. Regardless, the forecast may verify perfectly, but real-world chase decisions (picking the wrong storm, taking the wrong road, etc.) or practicalities (road closures, flat tires, etc.) could lead to a "bust chase".
A "clear-sky" bust is pretty objective, and it's usually the result of capping being too strong for the given amount of low-level forcing (though clear-sky busts are still possible even if there is little or no cap). Other times, the opposite is the problem -- there is too much forcing for the given amount of CINH, and we end up with widespread convection. Neither of these ends of the spectrum are ideal if you hope to see supercell/mesocyclone tornadoes, obviously. As Chris wrote, busts are just a fact of life for chasers, and I think they make the "jackpot" days that much better and more rewarding. I have had "burn out", however, when I end up on a long string of busts (a la 2002 or a good part of 2006 for me).
