Bart_Comstock
EF5
Igor is still strengthening and by the latest NHC advisory it would seem that he is 1mph away from reaching cat 5 status!
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ATLANTIC: 'MAJOR' HURRICAN IGOR
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Mods: It appears some posts in this thread (after 9-14) have been lost?
Mods: It appears some posts in this thread (after 9-14) have been lost?
Jim Bishop
EF4
It appears Bermuda just might take a direct hit. Not sure if you decided to go or not, but Simon Brewer and Juston Drake are going.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
I am not going after this one after all.
I only ever want to get into the eye these days and the risk of it [the eye] actually hitting a 14 mile wide island head on means that I can't justify the spend (I wish I could)
Etherway, things will be VERY rough for Bermuda on Sunday - I hope all Chasers and all of Bermuda stay safe through these tricky times.
I only ever want to get into the eye these days and the risk of it [the eye] actually hitting a 14 mile wide island head on means that I can't justify the spend (I wish I could)
Etherway, things will be VERY rough for Bermuda on Sunday - I hope all Chasers and all of Bermuda stay safe through these tricky times.
cedwards
EF5
Mods: I tried clicking on page 5 of this thread and it takes me back to page 4.
The forecast track for Igor is unusually consistent. I wish I was in Bermuda.
The forecast track for Igor is unusually consistent. I wish I was in Bermuda.
Bart_Comstock
EF5
Those posts have been removed at the request of the poster.
This is because the 5th page no longer exists since some posts have been deleted by the staff at the poster's request.
Jason Harris
EF5
It looks like you're referring to Rich's posts--and his experience is missed. He's got a great record of hurricane intercepts:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/570059.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/570059.htm
cdcollura
EF5
I am curently en-route to Bermuda and will be there after lunch time today (Sat). I will be staying on the SE tip of the island.
Sunday appears to be the day for anyone chasing there...
Sunday appears to be the day for anyone chasing there...
MClarkson
EF5
The GFS/NAM is still progging ~50 knot upper level winds out of the south over the Bermuda region tomorrow... although the trough is helping ventilate the hurricane at the moment, you'd think effects of this shear will start to show up as it approaches both Bermuda and the trough tomorrow. But on the other hand, the large circulation of Igor has more momentum than your typical cane, and may resist longer.
good luck, stay safe and have fun to all that went to Bermuda!!!
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Mods - time for a title change please [Atlantic: Hurricane Igor]
Igor has weakened significantly over the last 30 hours. Satellite presentation is showing that eye wall replacement cycles have taken there toll (as is normal in such large Atlantic Hurricanes)– Indeed recent recon showed that an 85 mile wide secondary eye wall is trying to form and this has had the effect of disturbing the once impressive central structure of Igor.
As we now focus on Bermuda, I am now quite sure that wind strengths over the island will barely reach hurricane strength (> 74 MPH sustained over 1 minute) However Igor’s wind diameter is VERY large, actually a new Atlantic record. Therefore I am expecting at least a few wind gust reports over 74 mph. But these wind gusts do not make for a hurricane.
IMO Igor is now a tropical storm with central pressure still rising. T
his is good news for Bermuda but somewhat disappointing for chasers.
Igor has weakened significantly over the last 30 hours. Satellite presentation is showing that eye wall replacement cycles have taken there toll (as is normal in such large Atlantic Hurricanes)– Indeed recent recon showed that an 85 mile wide secondary eye wall is trying to form and this has had the effect of disturbing the once impressive central structure of Igor.
As we now focus on Bermuda, I am now quite sure that wind strengths over the island will barely reach hurricane strength (> 74 MPH sustained over 1 minute) However Igor’s wind diameter is VERY large, actually a new Atlantic record. Therefore I am expecting at least a few wind gust reports over 74 mph. But these wind gusts do not make for a hurricane.
IMO Igor is now a tropical storm with central pressure still rising. T
his is good news for Bermuda but somewhat disappointing for chasers.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Thanks for the summary, but I'm not sure I agree with your intensity estimate. The last recon pass totally supported hurricane intensity (1-min winds of 64 kt at 10 m), and the NHC has put the current intensity at 75 kt-- so they still consider it a hurricane. Is there a specific reason you think it isn't?
The weakening trend seems to have leveled off. As far as I'm aware, the pressure hasn't risen for several hours, and on infrared imagery, the structure seems to be holding steady. I'm not suggesting this hurricane is one for the ages, but I think it could still be a good, solid Cat 1 for Bermuda. Keep in mind that, because the island is so small, they essentially get marine-exposure wind speeds when a cyclone passes nearby. In fact, they're already reporting solid gales.
By the way, thanks for the radar link-- very cool!
To those who decided to chase this one: enjoy yourselves, and I hope you get some good action.
Me: I'm still in Veracruz resting up after my Karl chase on Friday-- it really took a lot out of me.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Joss ,
The last NHC advisory comented that "SFMR READINGS OF 68 KT" were found.
Since then, the sat prensence of Igor has weakend further hence my suggestion that Igor is now less than 64 KT in strenth = tropical storm.
Anyhow a mute point as SFMR readings are spot winds and not 1 min sustained winds. If gusts to 68Kknots were found then the 1 min sustain winds must be less than that - hence my thinking that Igor is in fact now a tropical storm.
As an aside IMO the best chase hurricane this year (So far?) was Karl - your storm
The last NHC advisory comented that "SFMR READINGS OF 68 KT" were found.
Since then, the sat prensence of Igor has weakend further hence my suggestion that Igor is now less than 64 KT in strenth = tropical storm.
Anyhow a mute point as SFMR readings are spot winds and not 1 min sustained winds. If gusts to 68Kknots were found then the 1 min sustain winds must be less than that - hence my thinking that Igor is in fact now a tropical storm.
As an aside IMO the best chase hurricane this year (So far?) was Karl - your storm
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Josh Morgerman
EF4
Hi, Stuart!
First off, thanks for your comment Re: Karl! It was a pretty cool chase subject, and I'm glad I went after it!
Re: SFMR values... Actually, those are considered 1-min (sustained) values. The SFMR readings sometimes have accuracy issues, but the values given are for a sustained wind-- not gusts.
Also, keep in mind the NHC uses SFMR not as a definitive indicator, but one of several indicators, and it seems based on all of the indicators, they consider this a 75-kt hurricane.
The obs so far from Bermuda are pretty impressive, given the center is still over 100 mi away; they've gotten gusts to hurricane force already. (One thing I should point out, though, is that a lot of Bermuda's observing sites are way above the standard 10-m measuring height, so that of course is going to add to those values.)
