Tim Vasquez
EF5
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2003
- Messages
- 3,411
I thought some of you might enjoy seeing what forecast discussions looked like 20 years ago. Found them while sifting through some of my old disk images.
The first forecast discussion, btw, is written by none other than Alan Moller.
The first forecast discussion, btw, is written by none other than Alan Moller.
KFTW 160949
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST MON JAN 16 1989
MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS N AM WITH
FLAT RDG IN ERN PACIFIC AND FLAT TROF POSN ACRS CNTRL/E CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPR STORM TRACK SHIFTING NWD TO THE NRN PLAINS...AND AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RDG/TROF PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE 48 HR FCST PD...LTL CHC
FOR ANY SIG WX N TX AREA. THIS MRNG'S ST DECK SHOULD CONT TO MOV S AND BRK
UP THIS AFTN AS DRY SUBSIDING AIR CONTS TO FEED INTO AREA FM THE NW.
SOME CI STREAKS WL CONT TO MOV ACRS IN RELATIVELY STG UPR FLOW...BUT
CHANNELED NATURE OF WEAK VORT MAX'S WL INSURE LTL ELSE IN THE WAY OF
SIG VERT MOTIONS/CLDS. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABT MSTR RETURN MOVG UP
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS ADVERTISED BY LFM AND SM ON DAY 2...BUT MSTR WOULD
HAVE TO TURN A TIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CORNER TO MAKE IT INTO N TX...MORE THAN
LIKELY ANY CLDS WOULD BREAK UP OR MOV EWD IN SUCH A SITUATION. STILL...
ZONAL 3-WAVE PATTERN ARND THE NRN HEMISPHERE BEARS WATCHING AS SIG
ADJUSTMENTS ARE PSBL LATER IN THE WEEK.
ABI 59/32/64 001 ACT 58/32/62 001 SPS 53/25/62 001
.NT...NONE
#26
KFTW 152045
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CST SUN JAN 15 1989
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH IN COLD POCKET WRAPPED AROUND MINOR LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CLOUDS
ALONG THE RED RIVER EARLY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST
ZONES BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH
AND DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD MAXIMIZE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. 46
SPS...23/52/23/54 0000 ABI...29/54/23/55 0000 ACT...32/54/26/56 0000
.NT...NONE
KLBB 160148
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 PM CST SUN JAN 15 1989
WL MAKE ONLY MINOR 1ST PD CHGS TO AFTN PCKG...GENLY TO CLD GRP IN S &
TO WNDS N. OTRW...STATUS QUO. #53
.WT...NONE
KSAT 160828
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANTONIO TX
300 AM CST MON JAN 16 1989
SFC HI BRIDGING FNT. USING ALTIMETER SETTINGS WK CDFNT SOMEWHERE
ARND EGP-VCT-IAH LN. FNT WL MOV INTO CSTL WATERS TDA. SUFF CAA CUD
INCRS WINDS OVR CSTL WATER TO NR 20 KTS TDA AND DIE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
TNGT. NELY WNDS WL SLOLY TURN EAST AND SE TUES. LOW CLDS BAND IN LWR
VLY INTO CSTL WATERS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION. SHUD SEE SOME BREAKS
IN CLDS TDA BUT CONT MSTL CLDY. OTRW ONLY JET CI MAR THE SKY. LO CLDS
PROGGED TO SHIFT WWD ACRS RIO GRANDE AND RTRN TUE NGT WRN ZNS.
FOGGY CONDS WL PRESIST UNTIL FROPA SOMETIME THIS MRNG. BY TIME ZNS
GO OUT FOG MAY BE CONFINED TO SML AREA...SO WL LET LOCAL WSOS DECIDE
ON ADVY. LFM AND NGM CONT EAST-WEST HI PRES RGD OVR AREA WITH LFM MOV
HI CNTR WELL EAST BY TUE ALLOWING SLY WND RETURN TO ZNS WITH WEST TX
TROF DEEPENING. NGM SLOER BUT POINTS TWD THE SAME END. LONG STRETCH
OF VORT MAXS AT H5 SHOW UP IN SAT PIX AS CI. THIS WL SHIFT SWD INTO
AREA TUE AND PSBLY SQUEEZE A LTL RAIN OUT OF CLDS IN WRN ZNS TUE. 6
.ST...SML CRAFT ADVY TDA BPT-BRO
KLIT 160927
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CST MON JAN 16 1989
STBL AMS OVR AR ATTM WL KEEP THE STATE DRY. TEMPS ARE MAIN FCST PROBLEM.
MDLS AGREE ON KEEPG RDG OVR AR AS HIGH SINKS TO SE TX AND MOVS SLOLY E
DURG NXT 48 HRS. BACK FLOW ARND HI SHUD HELP WRM TMPS ABV NORMAL RDNGS
FOR THIS TIME OF YR. FLOW ALF WL STRING VORT PATN W-E ALLOWING SOME HI
CLDNS TDA AND TUE.
.AR...NONE
KOKC 160255
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY, OK
823 PM CST SUN JAN 15 1989
STG SHORT WAVE EXTDG FM VORTICITY MAX NR THE MN/WISCONSIN BRDR SWWD TO NWRN
OK THIS EVENING IS SLGTLY FASTER THAN FCST BY THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE AVN
APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED BEST. REFLECTON OF UPPER TROF IS THE SFC TROF WHICH
EXTDS FM SERN MO ACRS SERN OK TO SRN TX. PRESSURE RISES BHND TROF ACRS OK AN
NRN TX WOULD ARGUE FOR ITS CONTD SWD PROGRESSION. WK CAA IS IN PROGRESS ACRS
OK THIS EVENING...AND CAA ALG WTH VIRTUALLY NO PIVA IN THE SRN PTN OF
THE TROF HAS RESULTED IN DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVR MOST OF OK. STRATUS
HAS RETREATED SWD DURG THE EVENING HOURS AND LIKELY WL CONT TO CLR SLOLY SEW
FOR THE NXT FEW HRS. OKC AND UMN SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW ARND 75 MB OF
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR JUST OFF THE SFC. EXPC THAT MID LVL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALG WTH STAGNANT NRLY SATURATED AIR IN THE LO LVLS WL COMBINE TO
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
SNOW PACK FM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TO NERN OK WHERE NRLY BLACK BODY RADIATION
FM THE SNOW SHUD GENERATE A SHARP INVERSION WTH SOME MOISTURE INCR WTH HGT.
SHLW GROUND FOG ALREADY HAS FORMED IN THE OKC METROPOLITAN AREA AND PROBABLY
IS FAIRLY WDSPRD OVR THE SNOWPACK. WL INTRODUCE A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR TNGT AN
MON MRNG IN AND NR THE SNOW FIELD. WL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING ON
ROADWAYS IN THE SPS WHICH WL BE ISSUED DIRECTLY.
NXT BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RPDLY THE FOG AND STRATUS WL BURN OFF MON.
CURRENT PKG CALLS FOR DCRG CLOUDINESS BY ERY AFTN...AND WL NOT MAKE ANY
CHGS IN THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. SLGTLY DRIER AIR SHUD GRDLY FILTER
INTO CNTRL AND SERN OK AS DOWNSLOPE SWLY FLO DVLPS WTH LEE TROFG MON.
THE ERL PROBABLY IS OVERDOING THE LEE TROFG AND THE GRADIENT ACRS OK MON
...AND MIXING LIKELY WL NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD AS THE ERL WOULD IMPLY.
HOWEVER...WL HOPE FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO LWR THE BNDRY LYR RH BY AFTN.
ASSUMING THAT DRIER AIR GRDLY INVADES OK MON...RMNDR OF THE FCST PD SHUD
BE FAIR WTH A WRMG TREND. THE POLAR JET AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WL BE ACRS
THE NRN US FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS...AND THE NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE STG FLO WL AFFECT OK ONLY IN THE SENSE THAT LEE TROFG WL FORM IN ADVANCE
OF EACH THEN DRFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES AS EACH TROF PASSES. EXPC
PERIODIC WSHFTS ESPECIALLY IN WRN OK BUT CAN SEE NO POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OR
INVASION OF COLDER AIR WTH LOTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
08
TUL 26/49/29/54 -000
.OK...DENSE FOG ADVY TNGT AND MON MRNG ZNS 7>8 11>13 15>20 22>24~r