Sam Sagnella
EF5
QuikSCAT data indicates a well defined surface low over the open waters of the atlantic and this is confirmed by the fact that advisories will be initiated at 21z on a newly formed tropical depression located at 27.8N 67.5W. The developing cyclone is currently over warm waters of the western Atlantic(>29C), however the warm waters are not overly deep and the TCHP is less than 75 kJ cm-2. Vertical shear is relatively light (on the order of 10-15kts), and upper level divergence has been increasing over the past 12-24hrs.
This system should be steered in the general direction of Bermuda over the next few days and the SHIPS brings the system to just shy of hurricane strength in 4 days.
This system should be steered in the general direction of Bermuda over the next few days and the SHIPS brings the system to just shy of hurricane strength in 4 days.