11/18/05 FCST: Tropical Storm Gamma

[Sam Sagnella]

Well, it's official as of 0300z; the blob of persistant convection that had been approaching the leeward islands (94L) has been upgraded to TD27 over the far eastern Caribbean Sea. The 18z GFDL has this becoming a category 4 hurricane in the central/western Caribbean whereas the 00z SHIPS has 27L (Gamma) just shy of hurricane strength in 96hrs.

To be honest, I really didn't expect development from 94L this soon, as strong upper-level westerlies have been throwing >25kt of shear over the entire region for the past several days. With SSTs still >29C and since the shear should back off at least a little bit (though still remaining moderate/strong) as the system moves into the Caribbean, TD27 should be upgraded and named within the next 24 hours or so.

With an ENEly flow over the entire Caribbean, the cyclone should be steered generally to the W/WSW for the entire forecast period. The bottom line is that the greatest threat from 27L is to the Belize/Yucatan region, which should be starting to feel the effects by the end of the week.

 

[cdcollura]

It just crapped out.

It's mid November and could not take the 30 Knots of shear at 300 MB over it!

TD #27 is dissipated.

 

[John Farley]

It's back, as Tropical Storm Gamma - another record. It faces an uncertain future, however, as it will more likely than not be absorbed by extratropical systems over the next several days.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by John Farley
It's back, as Tropical Storm Gamma - another record. It faces an uncertain future, however, as it will more likely than not be absorbed by extratropical systems over the next several days.

Looks like it'll have a chance at making a good run at Florida, though. If that pans out, especially if it shacks up with that cold-front before it gets there, there could be some chase potential for people who live near Florida.

At any rate, while with this season anything goes, I doubt we'll need to worry about Gamma pulling a Katrina... or a Rita... or a Wilma. With the low SSTs (link goes to heat potential) and the increasing shear in the Gulf, Gamma's gotta lotta hurdles to jump.

 

[B Ozanne]

Sorry, but Gamma has formed!

Edit: Looks like it might hold together for a few more days before getting sheared apart. Florida might be in line for a tropical storm strike.

 

[Mike Gauldin]

I was stoked to see an Alpha... I'm now in awe that we've actually had a TS Gamma. This has been one heck-of-a hurricane season. Now I'm waiting for a brief Hurricane Gamma.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, she's up to a CAT5 now... I knew it would only be a matter of hours... Doh, wrong storm! Thinking of Wilma! :lol:

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Gamma interacts with the cold front and modified arctic airmass that's slated to drop south. Moisture + boundaries + cold air = fun^2.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Originally posted by rdewey
Well, she's up to a CAT5 now... I knew it would only be a matter of hours... Doh, wrong storm! Thinking of Wilma! :lol:

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Gamma interacts with the cold front and modified arctic airmass that's slated to drop south. Moisture + boundaries + cold air = fun^2.

my mouth dropped

then i read the rest of your post

 

[Alex Fisher]

LLC is now exposed just to the north of Honduras. Almost all of the convection is to the north and the recond found the 46kt far away from the LLC in a heavy squall to the north. Right now it looks terrible.