9/28/05 NOW: OK/KS/MO/AR

Jun 22, 2005
Fall Branch, TN
I'm surprised no one has been discussing this so far...

Large risk for severe thunderstorms along OK-KS-MO-AR. Blue Box was just issued for this vicinity, and there are already numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Active in south Central MO, assuming to spread SSE. There is a cold front along this area, and it's assuming the shape of a line segment/line alread. It's also getting some fuel from the storms die north of it. There is also a Pre-Frontal Trough around it, to cause some more potentail severity. If you look on SAT you can even see a huge cumulus field with many TCU's near the area. There seems to be also some pretty good deep layer shear, and MLCAPE is in the 4000 J/KG range.

Looks like these could be some pretty good storms. I'd say we could even see some supercells, but if there were any I would say they would transition into a line/cluster quickly.
Numerous meso rotations in the line in MO, with quite visible rotation, on the latest velocity scan. There have been Wind Reports and one hail report with this storm one gust of 75 MPH reported in Golden City, MO.
Four TVS' in the MO/AR storm. Some of these storms have really high tops. I can see VERY strong rotation in the storm in AR/MO right now, and it has so many couplets. I am surprised there has not been a tornado warning yet...
Line looks to be going strong, but it looks like the souther part of the line is becoming outflow dominant, from a gust front forming just north of the southern part of the line. It's pushing out a lot of cool air, and undercutting a lot of the shear-based rotation.