9/27/06 Fcst: Mo / Il / Ky / In

John Farley

Apr 1, 2004
Pagosa Springs, CO
With a rather strong cold front, good speed shear, and some low-level directional shear, it looks like storms are a good bet and supercells a possiblity in and near southern Illinois. Moisture is an issue, but strong forcing, shear, and upper support will likely be enough to trigger strong storms anyway. Could go linear fast, though. I am thinking of heading down to around the Rend Lake or Carbondale areas to see what happens. If severe wx does occur, it will likely be in the same general area affected by last Friday's outbreak, though perhaps just a tad further east.
We just had a small frontal line move through here in Southfield. Barely getting rain as it lost its umph just as it got here.

Right now there's a good area of shear over west Michigan that's moving ESE. If the sun can come out and evaporate some of this rain we're getting it might give us enough instability for some moderate storms.

Of course, knowing our luck this year, I'm willing to bet it will just bring some wind and rain. :(

With the front already through most of SE MI, there's no way anything post-frontal could be severe. Only possibility is some small hail due to low levels...