9/21/09 FCST: TX/OK

[David Reimer]

Although not looking like a major event by any means, I thought I'd start a thread on it anyway, not that often you get a severe weather setup in September in North Texas. Based on tonight's model runs, It looks like a linear squall line with potential for hail and high wind. I'd bet coin-sized hail and winds 60-70 MPH. Doesnt really look like an extreme wind event by any-means, but its still two days out at this point. Tonight's runs did improve the setup, but it looks like a nice local chase with some lightning and shelf shots. Bring on El-Nino.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Alright, I assumed SPC would go with a 5 % hatched for tornadoes. My hope for tomorrow is that we can get that supercell to go up, a good ways in front of the CF. I wont be chasing tomorrow. I will be waiting here in NE OK hoping the supercell that goes up infront of the front heads my way. If that fails, I will be waiting for the lightning show later on during the evening.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Hatched? I see no hatched area.

As for what to do I originally had been planning for a target just south of Norman but now I think I am going to slight readjust east a bit but not by much. I do loath SE Oklahoma chases but I will take what I can get this late in the year.

I will start my day out on I-35 and play the better CAPE along the OK/TX boarder and hope to get lucky. All in all I am not really impressed at all but I don't have anything else better to do.

 

[Angie Norris]

Interesting how things have changed from yesterday's WRF that showed the squall line associated with the cold front and today's RUC that is showing isolated convection beginning about the 18Z time frame. I particularly like a little feature just east of OKC about 21Z. Shear is tolerable and moisture is in place (we're currently 80/69 here in OUN). I am waiting for the 15Z RUC to see how things look, and plan from there. With storm motion progged to be east, and based on the location of the convective feature on the 12Z RUC, I'd pick Meeker as a target.

 

[Matthew Piechota]

Good clearing in central and southern OK with CAPE values on the rise, moisture wont be a problem with values already in the upper 60's and low 70's.

pretty descent shear with 500 flow near 30kts with strong 850s out of the ssw and sfc winds out of the south and slighty backed in some area.

to me looks like maybe a supercell or two early but with storm motion almost parallel to the CF I would think transition to linear mode would take place pretty quick. I would sit somewhere near the Ada to McAlaster and hope to get on the storms quickly.