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9/15/04 FCST Hurricane Javier (Eastern Pacific)

I'm sorry if I was out of line. I'll make the appropriate correction. This storm, unfortunately, looks even more powerful than Ivan.
 
I'm in So. Cal and I sure hope it comes this way. Obviously it will be a mere t.d. if it makes it all the way up here. The water temps are cool here in S. Cal (upper 60s to low 70s), and 2/3rds the way down Baja the temps are fairly cool as well.

If anything the SW may get some good moisture which could provide some fun for the monsoon chasers.
 
If this works its way into the SW it could be a fantastic benefit. They are in a multi-year drought and really need the rain. Bad news though if you are the type of person who like to drive across flash floods. Did I mention great surfing for So Cal?
 
Like I said before, Javier is going to bring very beneficial rains to the Desert Southwest. This is the kind of thing they need to get jump started out of their 6 year drought.
 
There'll be some rain, but Javier doesn't look like a big rain event. The deep moisture just hasn't had much time to build up and the trough looks to haul the remains of Javier through here pretty fast. With the big rainmakers, we'd already be getting precip up the trough line. Still bone dry here.
 
Latest NHC forecast track has Javier crossing into the Sea of Cortez - sea surface temps there are in the mid to upper 80s so it will be interesting to see how Javier responds to it - every once in a while a storm that crosses the Sea of Cortez brings tropical storm force winds to NW Sonora and southern Arizona (like Raymond in 1989, Lester in 1992, Nora in 1997)....perhaps the folks in AZ might have a little bit of wind to look forward to as well.
 
Still looks pretty bleak for much of Javier reaching Arizona. The trough line approaching the Colorado River had better pick him up very soon to have much chance at anything substantial. The southeast part of the state has already gotten some rain but the WV loop is pretty discouraging.

AFA the Sea of Cortez effect -- I've only seen it to work with a storm that's slow moving and low-shear. Recently Marty last year and Juliette in 2001 had some traction that way.
 
Javier's remains are unfortunately moving too slowly and staying south. There's interesting convergence along the trough/dry line approaching Gila Bend - Prescott with a possible supercell now approaching Yarnell south of Prescott. If Javier had got caught up as progged yesterday there'd quite possibly have been enough low-level convergence combined with the other ingredients for some substantial rotating severe. Ah, well....

There have been some locally substantial rains in western AZ associated with the convergence line.
 
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