9/12/05: FCST: Central/Northern Plains

[Edward Ballou]

Situation is changing - suprise, suprise.

Target area shifting to my favored SD target and back west along the border to Mike's approx. area.

Having some "bad feelings" about today.

With the upper deck eroding, it's exposing to a freshly damp ground (rain from this morning). THAT smell is very much all around outside (Brookings is still getting driplets of rain).

With that, higher dp's are moving northward into Yankton to Vermillion area.

Btw, I didn't notice this before, but there's a Utica, SD...interesting.

 

[Kyle Masters]

I'm liking the SE SD area too, I'm looking at a box from Sioux Falls to Mitchell to Yankton to Sioux City back to Sioux Falls. Dynamics are starting to get up there, and it's nice and sunny for the time being, lets see how much heat we can really get around here, and maybe shoot of some a nice show this afternoon.

 

[nickgrillo]

Strong boundary layer destabilization is taking place as cloud cover continues to burn off in SE SD/northeast Nebraska. Extreme instability (CAPEs AOA 3500J/KG) and modest deep-layer shear (30-45kts) will support supercells, with strong low-level shear bringing the chance for a few tornadoes as well. Any storm that pops near/along the nearly stationary frontal boundary will be capable of giant hail and tornadoes... With storms likely lining out by the late evening, a damaging wind threat could emerge.

GEMPAK-generated analysis: http://midwestchase.com/9_13_08outlook.jpg ...

 

[Glen Romine]

Line from near Chamberlain to Brookings looks most promising to me. While 850 flow is rather weak - could improve as the LLJ strengthens with deepening low pressure in WY. Small region of subsidence evident in water vapor imagery near ne CO/sw NE combined with low-level cloud cover suggest instability could be a problem in nc NE. Combined with weak and disorganized surface flow over northern NE along with slow but progressive cold front per returns in the LBF radar suggests if storms form there they will struggle to avoid being undercut. Biggest concern for SD region at this time is extent of coverage and modest low-level shear. But, with rapidly improving low-level thermodynamics and strongly backed low-level flow - at least see some hope there of a tornado or two later today.

 

[Dan Christianson]

About to head out i guess its a BUST or NO BUST situation now.... eghhh i guess this will prb be the last best opportunity for this season , off to Vermillion I Go


.....come on storms pop already erghh"

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Dan you had better drive FAST, lol. I agree with Glen. I have been staying east of that cold front out there and just moving nw. Now in Yankton about to head up to I-90.