8.9 Earthquake has struck Japan

[Ryan McGinnis]

The suppression pool damage is pretty critical here. That's LITERALLY the last line of defense for a core meltdown; the pool is what cools the hot uranium and contains fissile components.

Hopefully this was a hydrogen blast and not an overpressure blast in the reactor. If it's the latter, then that's probably the worst-case-scenario that everyone has been saying is extremely unlikely to happen these past few days. The fact that plant staff are being evacuated (other than 50 people) tells me that they're pretty flipping worried that something really bad just happened. Those 50 staff being left behind may literally be there at the risk of their own health and lives.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

From cnn.com archives:

12/28/2004: 33,000 dead
12/29/2004: 56,000
12/31/2004: 134,000
1/1/2005: 150,000

The current recognized death toll is 200,000+ from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

I stand by my original thought that it will top 100,000

Radioactive materials feared to be leaking: safety agency (08:33)
Lower pressure after blast triggers damage to suppression pool: agency (08:35)
1,300 people isolated in Kesennuma, Miyagi Pref. (08:43)

And now they are supposedly pulling their crews???

Not good.

 

[Robert Rohloff]

Reports are they have ordered employees to leave the complex and are leaving 50 volunteers behind. This can not bode well for dealing with reactor 2. If the crack they are now reporting has gone deeper than the outer containment vessel they expect much more dangerous levels of radiation to be released in the form of particular radioactive material.

 

[Darren Addy]

Live news conference: http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Some live commentary from live AlJazeera, as posted on reddit.com (note: I didn't see this news conference and am only posting a summary that someone else made of what they saw):

I was just listening to a nuclear reactor expert on Al Jazeera explain that things are much more grim than what the Japanese officials are saying at their press releases. The 2nd explosion happened as "water levels were so low they exposed the fuel rods", but why were the water levels so low suddenly? He said the only explanation was that the actual core was now leaking and boiling away all the water at a faster rate than what was previously being pumped in, causing the pressure to rise and a reactor container to explode.

This 3rd explosion now may only reinforce what he was saying: the core is leaking. All those brave men and women working around the clock to keep the reactors cool essentially know they are going to die within a month from the radiation exposure, but they are sticking with it to save their country. This is straight from the expert's mouth. He was visibly distraught because the physics of what the press releases are saying don't add up right.

Edit Two anchors on NHK TV, a news channel from Japan, have a little dry-erase board mock up of the nuclear reactor. They are describing the containment vessel with the fuel rods and the water cooling it off to the television. They just said that this 3rd explosion has damaged the containment vessel, and explained that the containment vessel is now the last vessel protecting the outside world from the radioactive material. They said this means that it is very likely that the radioactive material is now exposed and leaking after this 3rd explosion.

Edit 2 There is a conference being held right now by the people who are directly managing the cooling process. They are being very vague and keep "apologizing for the concerns" this situation is bringing about in the people. Media members keep asking questions about what actually happened and insisted multiple times "we just want the facts" because the explosion that just occurred was not from hydrogen build up and the officials are not answering their specific questions about the damage or its implications.
Edit 3 Tensions seem to be very high at the conference. The media is asking questions and the officials are still being vague and not giving them direct answers. To get an idea of their vague replies: Someone asked what the reasoning behind the workers reportedly evacuating because of the explosion. The official replied along the lines of "Because there was a sound." You can see why frustrations are increasing during this conference.

Edit 4 The conference ended with the officials saying the pressure inside the vessel has gone down and that they can increase the water levels, but the people at the conference keep asking how they can do all of this if the vessel is damaged and broken. It is my final analysis of that conference that the officials may not know the extent (if any) of the damage of the vessel, but the media at the conference feel like something is terribly wrong and could not get any direct answers from the officials.

 

[MClarkson]

"A 500 or 1,000 year event? Was this a 500 year event or possibly only a 100 year event?"

I am not sure we can know that yet. Seismographs have been in widespread use for about 100 years. Data from geological records like sediment deposits is going to be less accurate. However it seems prudent to build some key buildings to withstand the max theoretical shock. So if you are near the large subduction zones, you probably want your reactor to be able to take a magnitude ~10 and a ~100 foot wave, and survive.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

From what I've read their critical failure was in trusting the sea walls to keep the water out of the nuclear reactor's backup diesel generators. Japan has invested an extremely large amount of money in sea walls under the assumption that they could slow or even stop a tsunami. While the walls did slow the tsunami a little bit, I think it's safe to say they didn't do much to stop it.

Also, the walls were constructed to stop the tsunami from a quake of a smaller than 9 magnitude. A magnitude 9 was not foreseen as it has never happened near Japan in recorded history.

In the future, I'm sure they'll put the generators on higher ground. Hard to believe they didn't do that already -- seems almost criminally negligent, given how over-engineered the rest of a nuclear plant is.

well you know what they say about assumptions.

I'm quite surprised the Japanese didn't think this out, because they are usually quite thorough when it comes to planning for the unexpected. bet they don't make that mistake again.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

TEPCO detects radiation of 8,217 micro sievert per hour, 8 times annual limit (09:03)

Their stock market that just opened up appears to be free falling again too.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

That radiation level is at the plant entrance -- not even near the actual reactor.

It is equivalent to 821.7 millirem per hour -- still pretty low level radiation in the scheme of things and unlikely to cause radiation sickness. However, you wouldn't want to hang around there long.

 

[B Ozanne]

From what I've read their critical failure was in trusting the sea walls to keep the water out of the nuclear reactor's backup diesel generators. Japan has invested an extremely large amount of money in sea walls under the assumption that they could slow or even stop a tsunami. While the walls did slow the tsunami a little bit, I think it's safe to say they didn't do much to stop it.

Also, the walls were constructed to stop the tsunami from a quake of a smaller than 9 magnitude. A magnitude 9 was not foreseen as it has never happened near Japan in recorded history.

In the future, I'm sure they'll put the generators on higher ground. Hard to believe they didn't do that already -- seems almost criminally negligent, given how over-engineered the rest of a nuclear plant is.

Many of these fishing villages are protected by tsunami walls with gates that automatically close during an event. Many of the videos we see show these walls being overtopped. Clearly, not high enough.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Heh, NOW is the time they need to drill a hole in the building to vent the hydrogen. A hydrogen-oxygen explosion now (as has happened with the other two reactor secondary containment buildings) with a damaged primary containment vessel, would be a pretty bad thing.

Right now plant observers are observing a vapour above the #2 building of unknown origin.

 

[B Ozanne]

I stand by my original thought that it will top 100,000
...

I'm sticking to mine of 50,000 to 100,000...from the tsunami and earthquake. And as of right now I'm trending toward the low end.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

From BBC:

0005: Radioactive materials are feared to be leaking at Fukushima, Kyodo reports quoting a safety agency.

Pretty fast moving story. NHK analyst now saying "this could be the worst case scenario for a Japanese power plant".

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

They also confirm that some staff at the nuclear power plant are being evacuated.

Um yeah... that is bad. The 50 staying behind? Sounds like samurai code to me. It will be interesting to see what the suicide rates are in Japan after the disaster is over.

 

[Darren Addy]

If the containment building is still intact, it could explain why radiation levels are not higher. But if they need to vent hydrogen and it blows the roof (as in No. 1 and No. 3) you will then likely see the full force of the (suspected) containment vessel leak.

The "we heard a sound" comment given in the press conference seemed to indicate a blast inside the containment building (not the top blowing off which would have been obvious).