HAltschule
EF5
Still a slight risk tomorrow for the entire area. The latest models indicate great shear, including a 50kt 850 jet maximum over the area in the afternoon. All ingredients are in place except that we need the sunshine...even a little will do. ETA/MM5 fcst soundings give us saturated profiles all day but the AVN gives us some heating in the form of breaks. I think it was the AVN that gives Albany, NY 1100 J/KG CAPE by afternoon...certainly enough. IF we can get some cells going...and I'm pretty sure we'll see some develop in NJ/E PA and SE NY, then the Hudson Valley effect may really cause additional directional shear to be enhanced. Thus, with any luck, some supercells and isolated tornadoes will develop. Lets hope we get them to pop in the first place.