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8/31/05 FCST: NY/NJ

Still a slight risk tomorrow for the entire area. The latest models indicate great shear, including a 50kt 850 jet maximum over the area in the afternoon. All ingredients are in place except that we need the sunshine...even a little will do. ETA/MM5 fcst soundings give us saturated profiles all day but the AVN gives us some heating in the form of breaks. I think it was the AVN that gives Albany, NY 1100 J/KG CAPE by afternoon...certainly enough. IF we can get some cells going...and I'm pretty sure we'll see some develop in NJ/E PA and SE NY, then the Hudson Valley effect may really cause additional directional shear to be enhanced. Thus, with any luck, some supercells and isolated tornadoes will develop. Lets hope we get them to pop in the first place.
 
Well, the clouds are thinning out from Albany southwards, and SPC mesoanalysis is showing 1500 surface cape already in southern NY and parts of CT, although I'm not sure I believe those numbers. Lapse rates are unimpressive to say the least. It's going to be a race against time - if we can get more sunshine this could still be a big day. I don't think I've ever seen shear profiles in Southern New England get this good on an august day before. If I had the time to really chase today, my target would be up towards Albany, with data stops along the way. Shear is maximized in that area and there is also a large break in the clouds as of noon. As it is, I'll have to monitor things and hope something pops up in CT late afternoon - that's all I'll be able to reach. This far south the upper level winds are going to be weaker, but there's more than enough low level helicity for brief tornadoes, IMO, if we get some real instability. We'll see. Good luck to anybody else who may be chasing this, although I know there aren't many of us. And if anything does happen, let's hope it stays out of the highly populated metropolitan areas.
 
Lots of sunshine in the Albany area at 3PM. Temperatures areawide are 85-90 with dewpoints 75 or so. Pre-frontal trof is about to move into the area from west with deep moisture convergence in the same location. Short lines of rw+/TRW+ are developing west and North of Albany now. CAPE is 1500-2000 thanks to the sunshine and we are primed for scattered Severe. SRH is 200-300 with Effective Shear 40-50kts. Believe Isolated bows and isolated tornadoes possible this afternoon from Albany North and East....thanks in part to the Hudson Valley effect. Would not be surprised to see tornado watch go up shortly since we still have several hours of convection to go. Happy chasing if things get going :)

EDIT: The A-Hole (Albany-Hole, that is) strikes again. Despite great potential, we got nothing more than 1 to 1.5" of R+ out of a line of showers. Very close...but no cigar. Me thinks the dynamics aloft moved away a little too fast??
 
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