8/2/06 FCST: IL/WI/IA/MI/IN

[David Draun]

It could be a rough day anywhere from Iowa into Michigan tomorrow afternoon. In fact LOT has mentioned supercells and tornadoes in the HWO Day 2, which they nearly never do. We are looking at CAPEs of 5000+ J/kg tomorrow with 10-15 degree dewpoint depressions. One caveat would be if an MCS brought early clouds and rain to screw everything up. I might chase locally tomorrow.

piece of HWO:
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

 

[David Draun]

New MD out for NW IL/ SE WI. The cumulus field is increasing in this area. There is not much of a cap left. The MD mentions supercells are possible. However the setup doesn't look as impressive as it did yesterday. The better shear is of course to the north. It looks like a squall line setup for this afternoon.

 

[MatthewCarman]

New MD out for central/eastern IA and west/central WI. SPC is monitering the area for a possible ww. Looking outside I can see a cumulus field and the sky just looks like it is getting ready to develop a storm.

Also ST Watch out for most of Michigan and another one out for part of the North East including the North half of newyork. SPC has a 2% chance of a tornado for this area.

I am waiting to see what develops in my area in central IA I would love to see a good hail or wind show today. The waiting game is so boring.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Is anyone chasing those storms in Kansas? NWS reporting destructive 80-100 mph winds and golf ball sized hail is possible. wow. Should we start a now thread?