8/14/04 FCST: [Caribbean and Gulf] Earl

[Scott A. Kampas]

Earl has become a named storm and is likely to enter the Gulf as a hurricane next week. A forecasting thread for TS Earl is now open.

Scott

 

[mikegeukes]

Latest on Tropical Storm Earl:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/142056.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT05/...IF/142058W5.gif

Mike

 

[rdale]

Earl is Dead?!?

Who'da thunk it? Looks horrible on sat - but we still have advisories because the hurricane hunters were ground by Venezuela!

IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN
THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED
ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE. HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE
STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AS THE
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 22Z LOOK MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT TO KEEP ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THAT MISSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO PROCEED.

 

[Zach Bailey]

Looks like the hurricane hunter finally got permission and ultimately failed to find a closed circulation. So at least for now, Earl is no longer being covered by the NHC. We'll see if it pulls a Bonnie and decides to re-develop as it moves into more favorable conditions.

 

[mikegeukes]

TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...EARL DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...

Mike