7/21/04 NOW: Great Lakes & Central Plains

[rdale]

Storms in northern IL look the worst... LSR from MKX had some wind damage this morning, and odds are looking good for this area to turn into a nice squall line with wind and some hail.

- Rob

 

[Anthony Petito]

SPC has 2 different MCD up.

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1747.html -- for Damaging peak gusts
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1748.html -- for Severe Thunderstorm potential.

 

[rdale]

NE IL / N IN / NW OH / S MI being upgrade to MDT and 18Z RAOBs requested from ILX/APXDTX - high wind damage potential with multiple bow echoes.

- Rob

 

[Robert Dewey]

45% for wind damage, and a hatched area for SIG... Thats pretty impressive (thats the highest wind damage threat you can have - SPC doesn't go any higher than that)...

 

[Ben Pinette]

Looks like I'll be taking up my usual "wind threat" vantage point south of Chelsea on M-52. Like Robert said, I'll take any SVR at the moment

 

[rdale]

18Z sounding at DTX is pretty lame when it comes to winds, CAPE probably around 3000 though (it was cutoff early.) APX winds a little stronger w/20-25kts through 400mb then 60kt from NW at 200mb. Davenport has CAPE 3000, weak low-level winds and a good core of 40-45kts from 850 to 400mb.

- Rob

 

[Ben Pinette]

Actually Nick, haven't really seen any sups this year. At least not here. Still holding out though, we've got some time left.

 

[rdale]

Wow!

ILX sounding from 18Z has CAPE 6109, LI -13 with max LI of -16! Winds also a bit on the meager side with 20-25kts in mid-levels.

- Rob

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Members,

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[rdale]

Michigan stuff not organizing but the storms approaching MKE are going linear in a hurry -- watch that stuff to cross the Lake and possibly remain severe into western Mich by 5pm!

 

[mikegeukes]

How big of a impact will Lake Michigan, have again as the line moves over Lake Michigan, the buoy over southern Lake Michigan at 3 pm, has a air temp of 72 , dewpoint of 69 and the water temp is 69. Holland is at 87 deg, dew point of 74. Storms are moving at a pretty good clip, less residence time over the lake, may not weaken them too much.

Milwaukee radar shows thunderstorms over Lake Michigan, WW 663 just been issued.

Mike

 

[Robert Dewey]

NEXRAD from GRR shows the storm over lake MI taking on a bow-shape. Storms look like they are riding right along or in just in from of the good 850-700MB wind field, with MKX VAD showing 50KNTS around 9K FT. The best of the shear is in the 0-3KM layer (as opposed to 0-6KM), so bow echoes should be the main threat, obviously...

 

[Laura Duchesne]

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued here in southwestern Ontario, at 1:42 pm EST.

Not much going on here yet... there's some pulse type thunderstorms developing throughout the afternoon... one cell to my SE looked like it had a rotating updraft, but it quickly fizzled.

Check out how those winds are blowing those anvils away from the main storms!

http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/Erie_Ontario.gif

 

[Bob Hartig]

Bow section of the line is moving inland, and I'm seeing a line of convection springing up along the outflow boundary. It's making a beeline for southern Kent County and my back door. No gym tonight. Any comments on the possibility of bowhead rotation?

 

[Robert Dewey]

First bow echo weakened as it came on shore, now looks like a solid line of severe thunderstorms have formed right on the leading edge of the cold pool. Low level wind field also increasing and convection moving into much higher instability (when compared to over the Lake MI) which may be aiding in the renewed development. KGRR/KDTX wind profiles started to pick up a little (DTX *very little*), while MKX winds are down (probably because the wind max is moving east). Plenty of instability to sustain severe weather, with the obvious threat still being wind damage...