7/20/2004 FCST: ND, SD, MN, NE

[Mike Hollingshead]

With 15-20knts at 500mb out of the west I don't think a storm with any east movement is going to work. The monster last monday rode the sfc trof south to sw and the tornado moved wsw.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I would head out there regardless ... reflectivities are approaching 55dbz in three distinct E-moving storms now.

 

[Zach Bailey]

I would head out there regardless ... reflectivities are approaching 55dbz in three distinct E-moving storms now.

55dbz according to what radar? I can't find those cells on any of the sites out there...seems the cells are currently in the "no-man's land" between UEX, FSD, LNX, OAX.

 

[Glen Romine]

With 15-20knts at 500mb out of the west I don't think a storm with any east movement is going to work. The monster last monday rode the sfc trof south to sw and the tornado moved wsw.

I think it was mostly just south - but in that situation an outflow boundary merged with the dryline - and the upper flow (from the NW) was not really the same as the situation today (mostly from the W). Agree, the winds are pathetic at 500 mb, but the overall wind profiles aren't really THAT bad. Look at the Neligh profiler:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/nlg_wp.gif

SPC forecast storm motion 27025 seems too fast and clockwise for my taste - prefer 31015, but what do I know....

Glen

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The only radar showing it is in wx-tap ... you're right ... they are in a radar hole.

If you have wx-tap, it's at: http://www.weathertap.com/protected/gen/ra...ate_ne_ani.html

You can see the cells on individual radars out of North Platte and Sioux Falls, but as I look at them I see they are not as intense as the regional composite I had been looking at - - - still too early to figure out what they are doing ... they are currently cycling - I don't think the big stuff will show up till a bit later and a bit further to the NE.

Satellite does continue to indicate possible growth out of these, however -

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think it was mostly just south - but in that situation an outflow boundary merged with the dryline - and the upper flow (from the NW) was not really the same as the situation today

No you are thinking of last Thursday, not last Monday.

http://www.extremeinstability.com/04-7-12.htm

That is what I'm talking about. It moved mostly south but started to propegate ssw in very weak mid-level flow down the boundary.

 

[Zach Bailey]

Things finally popping on the N Platte radar, but convection looks more multi-cellular (imho). Thoughts?

 

[Glen Romine]

No you are thinking of last Thursday, not last Monday.

http://www.extremeinstability.com/04-7-12.htm

Thanks Mike, you are right, I did have my days confused - but could still argue that the upper winds (though we are talking here above 500 mb) were from the NW that day too:

http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/case-selection/..._2004071302.gif

Anyway, still don't think you'll be seeing a SSW or even S cell motion in NE today - but it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong if it does happen.

Glen