7/17/07 FCST: NE / IA / SD

[Dustin Wilcox]

Please Change Date to 7/18

While more states will likely need to be added to the list I have been focusing on NE. Based on the 18Z ETA a decent setup appears probable in portions of C and NC NE. Per the 12KM 18Z a decent 30-40kt 500mb Wave will be working into NC NE by peak heating. A stationary front is progged to be setup from near North Platte to the O'Neil area. With Low Pressure to the West and a boundary in the area LL's should back. Plenty of moisture will be present and Instability should be quite significant, LCL's are forecast to be relatively low and while not always a reliable tool this time of year EHI's creep up to 14 by 0Z. A stout cap will be in place initially but some cooling of the Midlevels should be enough for it to be breached. Currently am watching the Broken Bow to O’Neil region.

Check out FCST SKEW-T 18Z ETA For O'neil
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=META&STATIONID=KONL

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Is this supposed to be for the 18th? The 17th would be today, and there is already a forecast thread for that. No worries, and this post can be deleted once it's clear... but I wanted to avoid any confusion it may confuse before we get people posting about today in here.

 

[Derrick Herndon]

Please Change Date to 7/18

While more states will likely need to be added to the list I have been focusing on NE. Based on the 18Z ETA a decent setup appears probable in portions of C and NC NE. Per the 12KM 18Z a decent 30-40kt 500mb Wave will be working into NC NE by peak heating. A stationary front is progged to be setup from near North Platte to the O'Neil area. With Low Pressure to the West and a boundary in the area LL's should back. Plenty of moisture will be present and Instability should be quite significant, LCL's are forecast to be relatively low and while not always a reliable tool this time of year EHI's creep up to 14 by 0Z. A stout cap will be in place initially but some cooling of the Midlevels should be enough for it to be breached. Currently am watching the Broken Bow to O’Neil region.

Check out FCST SKEW-T 18Z ETA For O'neil
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=META&STATIONID=KONL

Hit Edit then "Go Advanced" and that should allow you to change the title of the thread.

I am also looking at tomorrow with some interest. The OMA office is indicating that convection should primarily be on the cool side of the boundary however. This seems reasonable given the location of the u/l support which appears at first glance to be on the cool side and does not come in until near dark. Also little or nor push on the dryline. Given the lack of chasing oppurtunities in NE this year (and the longer range forecast) though I may still go out.