7/17/06 NOW: IA/WI/IL/MI/NY

[MatthewCarman]

Things look to be realy good for today for a severe weather outbreak across parts of IA/WI/IL/MI. North East MO and Northwest IN could also be under the gun later. Noaa has a watch for parts of WI and MI and storms have already been firing up in that area producing 70 + winds and qaurter size hail. That is a prequil of things to come later I think. Noaa just issued a watch for central and eastern of Iowa including western IL now and they are saying isolated tornadoes as well as strait line winds and very lerge hail are possible for Iowa. SPC has 2% chance of a tornado have to see if they will increase the chance or not. A cold front is moving into Iowa and heat index could get to 115 degrees for I-80 and south and we all know what happens when cold air meets hot air. Dew points are in the 70's and there is a tremendous amount of instability ahead of the boundary with mixed layer capes of 3000 to 4000 J/KG with convective inhibitions nearly gone by ooz as 700mb temparatures cool to around 10c to 12c. A potent short wave trough moving into central Iowa will also help innitiate storms. The potential for explosive severe storms is there across Iowa and the great lakes with a few storms becoming severe fast. I have to work tonight and probibly on the garage me and my boss has been working on. Saturday we worked on the roof and the heat was killing me. If things get firing up he may cancel work tonight and I can stay at home and watch the storms come my way. Hopefully this cold front will cool down the heat wave a few degrees. Anything is better than 110-115. -MatthewCarman.

 

[HAltschule]

Anyone else notice that the SBCAPE's just to the north of Lake Ontario are 6000 j/kg +. That's absurd. Unfortunately, the atmosphere is well capped with the heatwave that is underway today. BUT...there is a cluster/MCS of TRW's moving from Lake Superior Eastward. If it is able to move into those areas and tap that air...it could be one heck of a sever weather outbreak for our Canadian friends. I wouldn't rule out a "Ring of Pattern" type event for Northern New York either.

Secondly, seems as though a vort max is moving through Western NY right now. Cumulus clouds are developing quickly and SBCAPE's in these areas are 2000-2500 J/KG. This area is capped well also so my optomism for storms is low but not written off completely. Vort Max's could always break the cap if they are strong enough...so I will keep a glance at the radar to see if something should pop up with any bit of luck.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Storm over northern lake michigan is a BEAST! Strong rotation with VILs of 78 also.

Also, large storm over lake michigan west of pentwater michigan has produced wind damage and golf ball hail in wisconsin and should do so again once it reaches the michigan shoreline.

 

[Tony Lyza]

I can't help but flashback to Roanoke and Plainfield when I realize that the Tds in srn WI are in the lower 80's (82°F at Janesville last I checked). Large region of CAPE 5500-6000J/kg, sup comp up to 20, 0-1km EHI of up to 4, and sig tor of 2. If the moisture continues to pool and keeps the LCLs low, I would not rule out a strong tornado with an HP supercell over srn WI/NW and N central IL.

 

[Robert Dewey]

RUC shows instability persisting well into the night (well, at least through 12Z tomorrow), so no real fear of convection rapidly weakening. With that said, if forcing can't overcome the low level cinh/cap to realize that instability, then it's pretty much useless.

Latest 20Z SWODY1 out, has most of lower MI in hatched wind region.

EDIT: That storm across Lake MI had a VIL of 88!

Wait, what's up with this thread? 7/19?! LOL

MOD: This post was part of a redundant 7/17 NOW thread that has now been merged into the thread you are reading (so ignore the "what's up with this thread" comment)

 

[Robert Dewey]

I wouldn't completely rule it out either. Extreme instability with pockets of effective SRH 0-3km of 200m2/s2 across WI and Lake MI. Standard 0-3km SRH across southern Lake MI up around 350m2/s2.

Still, I expect large hail and very damaging winds to be the main threats... Tornadoes will likely be isolated as storms converge into a linear structure.

 

[Joel Wright]

Cells appear to be firing nicely now in northeast IA near ALO. It looks as though they're becoming more surface based. These storms are nearing the axis of highest dewpoints and best all around instability as well.

A thin line of towering cumulus extends southwest of these new cells down south of DMX.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

according to GRlevel

the storm just east of waterloo iowa has a vil of 88 and a top over 60k

 

[Rob Satkus]

according to GRlevel

the storm just east of waterloo iowa has a vil of 88 and a top over 60k
[/b]

3" hail report just came in with that cell...impressive indeed.

Rob

 

[MatthewCarman]

Doplar Radar is now indicating a storm capable of producing a tornado in Tama county Iowa. Radar showing 2 nice cells in eastern Iowa. Looks like the tornadic show has possible just started.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

3" hail report just came in with that cell...impressive indeed.

Rob
[/b]

I don't know how much I am buying these media reports out of the Waterloo area. We've called into Waterloo and the surrounding towns to find hail no larger than golf ball (probably 2-2.25" is a better cap as a lady estimated hail at golf ball but stated "it may have been a bit larger"). Further, there are a couple of reports from Jesup and SHAVE has called in there to only get NO HAIL (4 different locations and one lady was "are you for real?" when we asked her about hail)

 

[Rob Satkus]

I don't know how much I am buying these media reports out of the Waterloo area. We've called into Waterloo and the surrounding towns to find hail no larger than golf ball (probably 2-2.25" is a better cap as a lady estimated hail at golf ball but stated "it may have been a bit larger"). Further, there are a couple of reports from Jesup and SHAVE has called in there to only get NO HAIL (4 different locations and one lady was "are you for real?" when we asked her about hail)
[/b]

Sounds like about what we found...I work for a company that makes a lot of phone calls to verify hail reports and after calling around Waterloo, the biggest reports we received were 1.75"...most were around 1" to 1.25". The biggest report we could confirm from Evansdale was 1.50". Called around Manitowoc Wi as well after seeing the 2" report...the largest we could confirm was 1.5". We run across this A LOT...many times finding the big reports were exagerated or made up only a very small amount of the hail that fell.

Rob