7/15/04 FCST: Northern/Central Plains

Dan Robinson

Thread started by request. SPC Day 2 hints at supercell potential in Nebraska and South Dakota.
Nebraska tomorrow

As an addendeum, looking at that data now, it appears that I must have been looking at old data when making the comments below. (Possibly the 0Z run from yesterday?!) Glitch at the site. That's my guess, anyhow, as the meso ETA is still running yesterday's data. Lesson learned the hard way! The real hodos/SkewT's for North Platte tomorrow don't look anywhere near as interesting as the apparently did for today on the Wed 0Z run....)

Interesting ETA Skew-T for North Platte at 21Z tomorrow for ye Nebraska chasers:


And the 0Z:


Right at the edge of the cap, good instability. Good dry pocket in
the mid levels. Low level jet is wimpy and the low level shear is
kinda weak, but the mid levels make up for it a bit. It's enough
right now for me to make the drive, anyway.

I'm still green at forecasting, so if I'm totally off the mark, please
tell me. :) Lord knows I don't love to spend money on bust gasoline.

0600 Day 1 mentions possibility of tornadoes in parts of Nebraska and Kansas.
I think it is going to depend on the small group of storms coming out of South Dakota. We may be relying on the outflow boundary from this group. Dew points are close to 70 here in Manhattan, and I'd imagine we won't have a hard time getting the warming we need, lol. We're getting the usual "large hail and damaging winds" speech from TOP in the morning outlook.

Looking at the ETA model it seems that there will be plenty of energy there with outputs of 4500 kg/J hanging over east central Nebraska.


The dewpoints also make me feel better with 60s over Nebraska. Who knows, I might be able to get one more in. High temp for Lincoln and Omaha are around 88 degrees so heating wont be an issue. I'm hoping for a local chase today since money is short and i have no car of my own right now. Hoping everything comes together.
Flooding chances today along the front range. NWS-Boulder has/will issue a Flood Watch effective from 3pm this afternoon til midnight tonight. Ample moisture along with little wind to push storms will create a potentially hazardous weather situation for flooding along the front range foothills. The threat of severe weather is there, but very low. Little wind shear will hinder any significant severe weather, although a wet microburst and some small hail is possible.
Gut is telling me to get nw soon, and to get west of that stuff along those n-s boundaries. That one ahead of the front looks oh so perfect. I only hope the stuff in se SD dies quickly. I don't see that stuff being any show later but who knows I guess. I was not thinking I'd have to go this far today but the O'neill area looks sort of like the spot right now to me.

I hate that western cell in se SD....it's acting a bit goofy wanting to backbuild west. Ignoring closer stuff becuase it's closer often pays off, because it's too easy to sit here and see what it does. So, O'Neill it is.

God this looks somewhat familar to Monday, cept mid-level flow is nw and not w. That boundary that storm road looks like it's there again in the same spot. I mean this is VERY similar... http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana...sis/s2/mcon.gif I looked at stuff around noon Monday and by noon this should almost be identical to what it was Monday.

Ok, that cell east of Lake Andes is really bugging me now. It *might* be wisest to target this stuff now, and then if it's not going crazy just let it go because no matter what it does there should be new development to it's west later. Starting to think this could be a very early show and a later one too!
I don’t think you will need to go as far as O’Neill. Norfolk may be far enough. The cells in SE SD seem to be strengthening. The cell just NW of Yankton is now heading south. If it can separate from the garbage that’s heading into IA, then it may have a chance to sustain itself as it moves into NE. There is a distinct NW to SE flow across NE when looking at the Water Vapor images http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html If those cells do die out, then I would look for new initiation in the Norfolk – O’Neil area and then tracking SSE.

That said, I’m sure to kill this and the mess headed into IA will turn into a 100 yr storm.
Leaving now to go somewhere sw of Norfolk to catch whatever that western stuff does. I think the real show will be after that furhter west south of O'Neill or maybe even sw of O'Neill.
Hmm... looks to me like all of the stuff this morning is elevated - and will remain so for most of the day if it survives that long (convective temp for OMA sounding 98F). I'd be more excited about the western edge of the outflow, where it is currently sunny with SE winds at the surface, with warmer SW flow on the SW side of the boundary. Maybe the remnants of this feature is around Huron to Aberdeen late today. That's the area I'd probably gun for - but maybe nc NE gets it done.

Today's Forecast

OK... I hardly ever post here, and I NEVER do my own forecast (I'm better as a storm reporter), BUT... it looks to me like we'll have 2 areas to watch today.

1: Eastern NE
2: Eastern SD/Western MN

atmosphere is already recovering here in Mitchell... 78 over 67...
I don't know if I'm reading the RUC soundings right, but looking at the progs it looks like SE SD is a good place to start. The 0Z sounding's 18 and 24 hrs are all calling for good energy and that stuff, but (this is th epart i'm not sure about) it looks like there may be a pretty good cap in place (if that's what the red means on the CINH page), and it shows that weakening on the 24 hr prog. If I'm reading it right, looks like the best tornadic probabilities will be in E NE today.

Please feel free to tell me what's wrong with this prediction.
Kyle, I'm in agreement with you.. Blake, if you're out there, may go play in Western Iowa as well! :) Won't be out chasing today, just hoping for one of these flooding rains to form overhead and give me something to deliver in this evening! We'll see! Good luck to all out there! :)
The moisture is great in the area of Eastern NE but the Omaha sounding is not showing very much if any instability and both its CAPE and CIN are not to be desired. Hopefully as the day goes on and convection occurs, this CIN will weaken. If this manages to happen and the cap gets weak enough i think that the mix of great moisture, 65-70 Td, and lift , Low pressure in central SD with slight outflow boundary, we may see some action. Update: with the surface Low moving into eastcentral NE followed by a CF/WF we could see some storms fire along the CF given the amount of energy present in central NE.


Looking at the North Platte sounding I see that there is a descent amount of insability with the shape offering storms with a somewhat strong downdraft.


I would desire more upperlevel winds, 30kt 500mb winds is ok but more would be nice. But i cant argue with the upper level flow asociated with those winds.
I thinking initiation will take place late aftenoon. Picking a target seems a little difficult for me. Eastern Nebraska seems to be a very good choice for now as soon as the cap weakens. But, then again west of Lincoln seems to be a good location, maybe even southcentral NE would be a great target. If i had to pick I would go with York to Seward area just cause i feel better with the energy present there. Good luck to all! ;)
I'm in Ord NE and it's going to happen again!!!! Finally got to a library. Found the boundary on my way west, and it's currently just west of here with towering cu already. 86/73 here. Now time to decide where exactly to play. I think I'm setting good right now, but areas farther north are a concern. I think the sfc trough will be a better play then the ofb....and/or where they intersect.
Mike......the latest MD out by the SPC is calling exactly that. Looks like those HWY 183-281 Corridors will be prime spots. Parameters have been pooling like mad in this area. This seat in Lincoln is getting hot......I may bail shortly!!

Good luck!!
I am leaving to head out hwy 91 from Omaha. If anybody will be now casting and wouldn’t mind a call please send me an email, and I’ll check it when I stop home. Good luck to all and stay safe.
I'm thinkin of maybe making an expedition tonight to the NE/SD border at the missouri river. I dont' know. I'll be somewhere!

EDIT: Ed Ballou don't be surprised if i try calling you to talk you into a nowcast.
TORN Watch for NE

Details are still coming over the wires, but NE is in a TORN watch starting at 3 p.m. Update coming in a few...

Update: The watch is out!!

300 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004


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First Storms Near Burwell NE

I second the thoughts...first storms are showing up both on GOES-12 VIS SAT and NWS Radar. First storm is firing up SW of Burwell NE and is heading to the SE. Will be starting a NOW thread very shortly... Good Luck!!

We've got 91/75 here in Manhattan. Backing winds are lacking greatly, but maybe as things fire up north we can get in on the act. I think the trigger will be farther north right where MikeH is sitting, maybe slightly south. Either way, plenty of fuel in our neck of the woods, just need a some more fan on the flames.

May venture into corn country after work, see how things are doing by then.