7/15/04 FCST: Northern/Central Plains

[Jamie Lahowetz]

The moisture is great in the area of Eastern NE but the Omaha sounding is not showing very much if any instability and both its CAPE and CIN are not to be desired. Hopefully as the day goes on and convection occurs, this CIN will weaken. If this manages to happen and the cap gets weak enough i think that the mix of great moisture, 65-70 Td, and lift , Low pressure in central SD with slight outflow boundary, we may see some action. Update: with the surface Low moving into eastcentral NE followed by a CF/WF we could see some storms fire along the CF given the amount of energy present in central NE.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

Looking at the North Platte sounding I see that there is a descent amount of insability with the shape offering storms with a somewhat strong downdraft.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/lbf.gif

I would desire more upperlevel winds, 30kt 500mb winds is ok but more would be nice. But i cant argue with the upper level flow asociated with those winds.
I thinking initiation will take place late aftenoon. Picking a target seems a little difficult for me. Eastern Nebraska seems to be a very good choice for now as soon as the cap weakens. But, then again west of Lincoln seems to be a good location, maybe even southcentral NE would be a great target. If i had to pick I would go with York to Seward area just cause i feel better with the energy present there. Good luck to all!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm in Ord NE and it's going to happen again!!!! Finally got to a library. Found the boundary on my way west, and it's currently just west of here with towering cu already. 86/73 here. Now time to decide where exactly to play. I think I'm setting good right now, but areas farther north are a concern. I think the sfc trough will be a better play then the ofb....and/or where they intersect.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

Mike......the latest MD out by the SPC is calling exactly that. Looks like those HWY 183-281 Corridors will be prime spots. Parameters have been pooling like mad in this area. This seat in Lincoln is getting hot......I may bail shortly!!

Good luck!!

 

[Kurt Silvey]

I am leaving to head out hwy 91 from Omaha. If anybody will be now casting and wouldn’t mind a call please send me an email, and I’ll check it when I stop home. Good luck to all and stay safe.

 

[Kyle Masters]

I'm thinkin of maybe making an expedition tonight to the NE/SD border at the missouri river. I dont' know. I'll be somewhere!

EDIT: Ed Ballou don't be surprised if i try calling you to talk you into a nowcast.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

TORN Watch for NE

Details are still coming over the wires, but NE is in a TORN watch starting at 3 p.m. Update coming in a few...

Update: The watch is out!!

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES, HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

[Automated by GetSmile]

 

[Jordan Manderfield]

[Broken External Image]:http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g12.2004197.1945_PIR_vis.jpg

Towers going up East of sioux city

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

First Storms Near Burwell NE

I second the thoughts...first storms are showing up both on GOES-12 VIS SAT and NWS Radar. First storm is firing up SW of Burwell NE and is heading to the SE. Will be starting a NOW thread very shortly... Good Luck!!

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

We've got 91/75 here in Manhattan. Backing winds are lacking greatly, but maybe as things fire up north we can get in on the act. I think the trigger will be farther north right where MikeH is sitting, maybe slightly south. Either way, plenty of fuel in our neck of the woods, just need a some more fan on the flames.

May venture into corn country after work, see how things are doing by then.

Tim