7/14/07 FCST: KS/MO/NE/IA

[scott r currens]

Tomorrow’s setup over NE KS/NW MO is similar to one that I chased on June 6, 2006. Both setups involved strong instability on both sides of a slow moving cold front with weak WSW surface flow, and weak westerlies at 850. The NW 500mb flow on 6/6/06 was a little stronger (30-40kts) than it is forecasted tomorrow (20-35kts).

Chase Log: http://www.violentplains.com/20060606.htm
SPC Event Summary: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/060606/index.html

I normally don’t like storms that develop on cold fronts but this is a little different given the 2500-3500 CAPE on both sides of it. Given that this setup is in my backyard, I will be keeping a very close eye on it. If a storm is able to propagate SW along the boundary it will likely become a supercell with the potential for large hail and maybe a weak tornado or two.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I will be monitoring this very closely too...it could maybe produce a brief tornado or two. I am liking the KS side for the more interesting supercell possibilities....between Salina-Topeka-Emporia by late tomorrow afternoon and evening. The better sig severe parameters are located in this area...and eff shear is between 25-35 knots. I do like this that it could be a very good backyard chase for a change.

 

[Eric Flescher]

it figures Sat setup I will be in Topeka Sat

Well my wife and are going to a party in Topeka for Israeli dancing. I will have my equipment with me.

If things look dicey while she is dancing (maybe even go earlier and she can chase with me -wouldn't that be a trip) and after I eat (or course ), I may head out for a bit depending on how things are going and stacking up (hopefully). Worth a shot.

I will stick close to Topeka and see what happens.

Will be watching for more info as you guys further think about setups, targets and more. I will be watching all the stuff early morning and early afternoon just like you all will be

Good luck and thanks for the heads up.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Im in SE IA, hoping to catch some afternoon activity.. but DVN really talks it down in the AFD. But will monitor just in case.. Looks to be nice instability, but little more moisture would be nice