Ryan Pfannkuch
EF1
Thought I would see if anybody else had some thoughts on the potential along the sfc trough moving into eastern SD/NE Thursday afternoon....it always seems like this time of year some nice suprises happen out in the O'Neill area so I cannot completely ignore this one.
The 18z WRF shows storms developing/moving southward down the Hwy 14/Hwy 81 corridors during the afternoon with some nice low-level turning according to forecast soundings for the Norfolk area BUT no more than 30kts of flow at 500mb limiting deep shear. I'm sure LCL's will be up there with sfc temps fcst into the 90s but moisture also shouldn't be as much of an issue as it has been so many times before this year. I've seen enough interesting things happen in this area during July-August on big CAPE days that even the marginal deep layer shear could be good for some decent structure on some big hailers.
Although I am far from committing to chasing at this point, it might be kind of tempting to play the Niobrara-Norfolk corridor and see what the day brings. I'll put it this way, how much less would I see than I did in May/June in the eastern NE/IA area?![Big Grin :D :D](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
The 18z WRF shows storms developing/moving southward down the Hwy 14/Hwy 81 corridors during the afternoon with some nice low-level turning according to forecast soundings for the Norfolk area BUT no more than 30kts of flow at 500mb limiting deep shear. I'm sure LCL's will be up there with sfc temps fcst into the 90s but moisture also shouldn't be as much of an issue as it has been so many times before this year. I've seen enough interesting things happen in this area during July-August on big CAPE days that even the marginal deep layer shear could be good for some decent structure on some big hailers.
Although I am far from committing to chasing at this point, it might be kind of tempting to play the Niobrara-Norfolk corridor and see what the day brings. I'll put it this way, how much less would I see than I did in May/June in the eastern NE/IA area?